VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, September 7
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, September 7, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 127-46 for +29.14 units as of Wednesday, September 7. This coming after an 8-2 performance last week. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +16.8%! Since my introduction of this system two weeks ago, the results are 22-4 for +11.64 units.
System Match: ATLANTA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a fine week of 15-10 (+8.26 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 303-303 for +71.76 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.8%!
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 7-8 (-1.1 units) week, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 205-212 for -38.86 units, an R.O.I. of -9.3%. After a 3-4 result (-1.72 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 79-102 for -25.77 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.2%.
System Matches: 3+ games – MIAMI, ST LOUIS
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 211-139 for +25.03 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 7.2%. These better bullpen teams had another profitable week, +2.59 units on a 13-7 performance.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, NY YANKEES
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since August 28, when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 219-164 for +13.43 units after a 12-6 (+5.1 units) record the last seven days. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a winning 5-1 week and have now gone 106-69 for +24.41 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.9% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-games – LA DODGERS
3-games – ATLANTA
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1433-1338 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE MIAMI, FADE ST LOUIS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE ATLANTA, FADE CHICAGO CUBS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 92-90 (+15.74 units, ROI: 8.6%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: LA ANGELS
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 161-78 (+21.69 units, ROI: 9.1%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: NY YANKEES
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 117-81 (+21.32 units, ROI: 10.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: MIAMI, NY YANKEES
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 143-88 in their last 231 tries (+28.00 units, ROI: 12.1%).
System Matches: MIAMI, NY YANKEES
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 49-50 (-21.70 units, ROI: -21.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS (+46)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND (+52)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT-NY YANKEES UNDER 8.5 (-0.69)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-54) at (902) MIAMI (72-67)
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (63-34, +12.55 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (21-21, -12.27 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: Miami not as good against NL teams (46-47, -7.87 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami trending UNDER a couple of ways (32-36 O/U at HOME, 19-34 O/U against NL Central/West)
System Match: UNDER
(903) ST LOUIS (61-78) at (904) ATLANTA (90-48)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (34-57, -32.71 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis more OVER against NL East/West (31-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER a couple of ways (39-28 O/U at HOME, 51-40 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (64-28, +15.20 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
(905) ARIZONA (72-68) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (76-64)
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at NIGHT (37-46 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago good as ML favorite (49-34 record)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago slight OVER at HOME (36-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(907) SEATTLE (78-61) at (908) TAMPA BAY (85-55)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER against AL East/Central (36-22 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle better and slight OVER at NIGHT (52-38 record at NIGHT / 50-39 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: SEATTLE, OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (47-24, +8.78 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay good against AL West/Central (34-20 record)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
(909) DETROIT (63-76) at (910) NEW YORK-AL (70-69)
Trend: Detroit trending OVER a couple of ways (19-10 O/U against LH starters, 38-33 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit not good record against LH starters (12-19, -4.75 units)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (43-47, -10.13 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
(911) CLEVELAND (67-73) at (912) LOS ANGELES-AL (64-76)
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER at NIGHT (36-51 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA better against AL Central/East (27-24, +1.90 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA not good at NIGHT (40-55, -24.73 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: INTERESTING TREND BELOW
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Thu 9/7-Sun 9/10
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 12-1 (92.3%, +10.5 units) in the last 13 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
The R.O.I. on this trend is 80.4%.
System Match: LA ANGELS
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 9/8)
