VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Tuesday, August 29
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 29, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA, TEXAS, PITTSBURGH
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%.
In games this season through Monday 8/28 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 128-91 record, but for -90.39 units. This is an R.O.I. of -41.3%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. Last week this angle was 9-7 for -8.57 units, another huge week of success fading these teams.
System Match: FADE TORONTO
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 121-42 for +33.05 units as of Tuesday 8/29. This coming after an 8-1 performance last week. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, Colorado, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +20.3%! Since my introduction of this system two weeks ago, the results are 14-1 for +11.4 units, with Colorado’s upset of Baltimore on Sunday snapping the 14-game winning streak.
System Matches: ATLANTA, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 60-58 for -69.94 units! This angle was 5-3 last week and again lost -2.1 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -59.3%!
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a fine week of 12-10 (+3.65 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 288-293 for +63.48 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.9%!
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY, PITTSBURGH
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 5-11 (-5.25 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 198-204 for -37.76 units, an R.O.I. of -9.4%. After a 3-5 result (-2.61 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 76-98 for -24.05 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -13.8%.
System Match: 2-game – FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 198-132 for +22.44 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.8%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, with -1.2 units on a 10-7 performance.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, PHILADELPHIA
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/14 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 207-158 for +8.33 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a winning 7-5 week and have now gone 101-68 for +20.83 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 12.3% after the past seven days.
System Match: 2-game – CINCINNATI
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 305-271 (53.0%) for +48.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.4%.
System Matches: BOSTON, COLORADO
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1432-1337 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE HOUSTON, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE ATLANTA
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE OAKLAND, FADE CINCINNATI
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE TORONTO, FADE BOSTON, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE SEATTLE, FADE LA DODGERS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 791-663 (54.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +41.60 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.8%.
System Matches: KANSAS CITY, ST LOUIS, NY METS
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 400-327 (55%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +35.97 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.9%.
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 270-124 (68.5%) for +56.30 units and an R.O.I. of 14.3%!
System Match: LA DODGERS
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 235-186 (55.8%) for +48.55 units and an R.O.I. of 11.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: BOSTON, COLORADO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 91-84 (+21.59 units, ROI: 12.3%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: ST LOUIS
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 116-79 (+22.08 units, ROI: 11.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won 9 games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 29-13 (+17.61 units, ROI: 41.9%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+30), CINCINNATI (+21), HOUSTON (+23), OAKLAND (+26), NY METS (+29), PITTSBURGH (+43)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA (+27), PHILADELPHIA (+39)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA-COLORADO OVER 12 (+0.6), ARIZONA-LA DODGERS OVER 7.5 (+0.8), CLEVELAND-MINNESOTA OVER 7.5 (+0.8), WASHINGTON-TORONTO OVER 8 (+0.5), PITTSBURGH-KANSAS CITY OVER 8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: HOUSTON-BOSTON UNDER 10.5 (-0.6)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) SAN DIEGO (62-70) at (952) ST LOUIS (56-76)
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple of ways (26-32 O/U on the ROAD, 34-45 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego better against LH starters (23-18, -2.65 units)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego not as good against NL East/Central (24-32, -21.20 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (31-55, -35.64 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(953) MILWAUKEE (74-57) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (69-62)
Trend: Milwaukee not as good against LH starters (17-20, -7.95 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER in divisional play (13-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER as ROAD ML underdog (15-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cubs trending OVER in multiple ways (23-14 O/U in division, 35-27 O/U at HOME)
System Match: OVER
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD record this season (MIL 5 – CHI 3)
(955) ATLANTA (85-45) at (956) COLORADO (49-82)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (59-25, +16.92 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER multiple ways (32-17 O/U vs NL Central/West, 47-37 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (31-59, -16.30 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(957) CINCINNATI (68-65) at (958) SAN FRANCISCO (68-63)
Trend: Cincinnati good at NIGHT (44-36, +15.15 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending OVER a couple of ways (38-30 O/U on the ROAD, 43-36 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: San Francisco good vs. LH starters (22-14, +6.84 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER multiple ways (25-31 O/U against NL Central/East, 28-44 O/U at NIGHT, 25-40 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
(959) ARIZONA (69-63) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (81-49)
Trend: Arizona good at NIGHT (45-38, +8.68 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona slight UNDER against LH starters (16-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAD good at HOME (44-21, +8.42 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (61-29, +16.50 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(961) NEW YORK-AL (63-68) at (962) DETROIT (59-72)
Trend: NYY bad at NIGHT (36-47, -18.43 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY not good at ML underdog (17-26, -4.96 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Detroit trending OVER in NIGHT games (37-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(963) CHICAGO-AL (52-80) at (964) BALTIMORE (82-49)
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (20-39, -20.13 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (29-47-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Baltimore good against AL Central/West (35-17, +15.34 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
(965) HOUSTON (75-58) at (966) BOSTON (69-63)
Trend: Houston better on the ROAD (40-27, +9.36 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston good as ROAD ML underdog (17-11 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Boston good record against AL West/Central (30-23, +3.34 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston absolutely ripped RHP JP France 5 days ago (11 hits, 10 ER in 2.1 innings)
System Match: BOSTON
(967) CLEVELAND (62-70) at (968) MINNESOTA (69-63)
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD series on 6-2 UNDER stretch this season
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota good at HOME (40-27 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota good with RHP Pablo Lopez starting (8-2 record in L10)
System Match: MINNESOTA
(969) OAKLAND (38-94) at (970) SEATTLE (75-56)
Trend: Oakland trending UNDER in divisional games (13-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Seattle 8-0 this season vs. Oakland (won 11 of their last 12 in total against Oakland)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle trending UNDER a couple of ways (13-18 O/U vs LH starters, 14-19 O/U in division)
System Match: UNDER
(971) TAMPA BAY (80-52) at (972) MIAMI (66-65)
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER in ROAD games (27-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami better against AL teams (26-18, +10.50 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami non-divisional games trending UNDER (38-55 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(973) LOS ANGELES-AL (63-69) at (974) PHILADELPHIA (73-58)
Trend: LAA slight UNDER against NL teams (18-24 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA not as good against NL teams (18-26, -14.51 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: Philadelphia good against AL teams (27-17, +7.19 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia trending UNDER a couple of ways (32-39 O/U at NIGHT, 18-24 O/U against AL teams)
System Match: UNDER
(975) WASHINGTON (61-71) at (976) TORONTO (72-60)
Trend: Washington good bet on the ROAD (31-35, +19.59 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER multiple ways (23-36 O/U at HOME, 25-48 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good against NL teams (27-14, +9.38 units)
System Match: TORONTO
(977) TEXAS (74-57) at (978) NEW YORK-NL (60-72)
Trend: Texas slight UNDER on the ROAD (29-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Texas good against LH starters (23-13, +4.88 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas not as good against NL teams (21-23, -7.72 units)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (20-40 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (13-28, -24.85 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
(979) PITTSBURGH (59-73) at (980) KANSAS CITY (41-92)
Trend: Pittsburgh not great vs AL teams (16-25, -8.15 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (45-30 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (22-59, -28.42 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Mon 8/28-Wed 8/30
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 11-2 (84.6%, +8.65 units) in the last 13 games between San Diego & St Louis
System Match: ST LOUIS
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
MIAMI
MOMENTUM after series vs. WASHINGTON: 16-11 (59.3%) 11 units, ROI: 40.7%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/29 vs. Tampa Bay
System Match: MIAMI
