VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Tuesday, October 17
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 17, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks this season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.”
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 63-36 SU (24.00 units, ROI: 24.2%) and 55-44 on run lines (19.93 units, ROI: 20.1%) since 2013.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 36-28 SU (14.66 units, ROI: 22.9%) and 41-23 on run lines (12.63 units, ROI: 19.7%) in playoff games.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDER’s. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
LCS Round Angles
If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 55-21 (72.4%) for +20.9 units since 2000, a ROI of 27.5%!
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 30-28 (+10.75 units, ROI: 18.5%) since ’18.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
Over the last nine non-neutral LCS series, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 13-6 SU (+8.15 units, ROI: 42.9%).
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 7-13 SU (-8.55 units, ROI: -42.8%) and 5-15 (-11.15, ROI: -55.8%) on run lines since 2013
System Match: FADE ARIZONA on the run line
Road/neutral teams down 0-1 in an LCS series have gone just 4-11 SU (-8.85 units, ROI: -59%) since ’08.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
All but one of 12 LCS Game 2 favorites of -150 or more have won their games since 2000 (+9.35 units, ROI: 77.9%).
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA +140 (+23 difference)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(971) ARIZONA (89-79) at (972) PHILADELPHIA (96-73)
Trend: Arizona good at NIGHT (57-48, +10.85 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona slight UNDER against RH starters (53-59 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: ROAD teams are 6-2 on the run line in season series
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Philadelphia dominant at HOME in postseason (11-2 record in the last two years)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia slight UNDER at NIGHT (46-50 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia leading season series (5-3 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
