VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, August 2

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VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, August 2

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 2, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

Top MLB Resources:

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA

AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher

Now, in games this season through Sunday, July 30, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 184-104 record, but for -55.74 units.

System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE NY METS, FADE LA DODGERS

Better bullpen underdog teams have been strong out of the second-half gate

A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a mediocre 12-15 (-1.26 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 245-251 for +53.21 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.7%!

System Matches: BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks

After a 6-9 (-1.93 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 170-166 for -33.52 units, an R.O.I. of -10%. After a 3-4 result (-1.14 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 63-80 for -21.25 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.9%.

3+ Game Winning Streaks:

System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY, TAMPA BAY

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks

When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 163-103 for +31.21 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 11.7%.

System Matches: BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks

Updating the results since July 24 when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 166-127 for +11.2 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 80-52 for +22.19 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 16.8% but it was over 50% just a few weeks ago. We’ll continue to track this hoping it turns back around soon.

System Matches: NY YANKEES

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent

Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 302-268 (53.4%) for +48.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.4%.

System Match: TORONTO

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game

Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.

System Match: FADE BALTIMORE,

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing

You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.

System Matches: FADE DETROIT, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE CLEVELAND

HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing

Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.

System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE COLORADO, FADE LA DODGERS

HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long

MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.

System Match: TEXAS

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites

HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 267-123 (68.5%) for +55.48 units and a R.O.I. of 14.2%!

System Match: CHICAGO CUBS

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts

Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 232-181 (56.2%) for +51.2 units and R.O.I. of 12.4% since the start of the 2018 season.

System Match: TORONTO

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections.

System Matches: CINCINNATI (+16), OAKLAND (+40)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+35), ATLANTA (+32)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: MILWAUKEE-WASHINGTON OVER 8.5 (+0.64), BALTIMORE-TORONTO OVER 8.5 (+0.81)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: SAN DIEGO-COLORADO UNDER 11.5 (-0.53), LA ANGELS-ATLANTA UNDER 10.5 (-0.83), OAKLAND-LA DODGERS UNDER 9.5 (-0.84)

MLB Top Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.

(901) MILWAUKEE (58-50) at (902) WASHINGTON (45-63)

Trend: Milwaukee worse against LH starters (15-17, -5.55 units)

System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE

Trend: Milwaukee bad against NL East/West (18-23, -4.60 units)

System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE

Trend: Washington bad at HOME (21-34, -5.95 units)

System Match: FADE WASHINGTON

Trend: Washington decent during the DAY (22-24, +10.10 units)

System Match: WASHINGTON

(903) SAN DIEGO (53-55) at (904) COLORADO (42-65)

Trend: San Diego better against LH starters (21-17, -2.90 units)

System Match: SAN DIEGO

Trend: Colorado worse in division (7-20, -8.95 units)

System Match: FADE COLORADO

Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (26-47, -11.80 units)

System Match: FADE COLORADO

(905) PHILADELPHIA (58-49) at (906) MIAMI (57-51)

Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (31-31, -8.15 units)

System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA

Trend: Miami not as good in division (13-18, -4.67 units)

System Match: FADE MIAMI

Trend: Miami OVER in divisional games (17-12 O/U)

System Match: OVER

(907) CINCINNATI (59-50) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (54-53)

Trend: Cincinnati better vs Chicago Cubs (5-2 this season)

System Match: CINCINNATI

Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (36-27, +16.15 units)

System Match: CINCINNATI

Trend: Cincinnati OVER at NIGHT (37-25 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Chicago better versus LH starters (19-15, +3.50 units)

System Match: CHICAGO CUBS

(909) ARIZONA (57-51) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (59-49)

Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (37-28, +11.14 units)

System Match: ARIZONA

Trend: San Francisco good at NIGHT (36-24, +7.80 units)

System Match: SAN FRANCISCO

Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (22-36 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

(911) CLEVELAND (53-55) at (912) HOUSTON (61-47)

Trend: Cleveland not good as ML underdog (17-25, -5.45 units)

System Match: FADE CLEVELAND

Trend: Houston not as good for bettors at HOME (30-25, -8.70 units)

System Match: FADE HOUSTON

(913) BOSTON (57-50) at (914) SEATTLE (55-52)

Trend: Boston better against AL competition (39-28, +12.25 units)

System Match: BOSTON

Trend: Boston good as ML underdog (25-25, +7.85 units)

System Match: BOSTON

Trend: Seattle slight UNDER in DAY games (15-22 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

(915) TAMPA BAY (66-44) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (55-52)

Trend: Tampa Bay not as good on ROAD (29-25, -3.20 units)

System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY

Trend: Tampa Bay bad as ML underdog (5-12, -6.45 units)

System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY

Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on ROAD (21-28 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: NYY not good at NIGHT (29-39, -16.05 units)

System Match: FADE NY YANKEES

(917) BALTIMORE (66-41) at (918) TORONTO (59-49)

Trend: Baltimore better against AL competition (51-27, +24.14 units)

System Match: BALTIMORE

Trend: Toronto bad in division games (7-22, -24.05 units)

System Match: FADE TORONTO

Trend: Toronto UNDER in HOME games (17-31 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

(919) CHICAGO-AL (43-65) at (920) TEXAS (61-46)

Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (15-31, -17.05 units)

System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Trend: Texas OVER in HOME games (31-20 O/U)

System Match: OVER

(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-52) at (922) ATLANTA (68-37)

Trend: LAA UNDER against NL competition (12-19 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: LAA worse against NL competition (14-19, -10.20 units)

System Match: FADE LA ANGELS

Trend: LAA good against RH starters (45-34, +9.30 units)

System Match: LA ANGELS

Trend: Atlanta not as good bet against AL teams (22-20, -11.18 units)

System Match: FADE ATLANTA

Trend: Atlanta more UNDER during DAY (16-17 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Atlanta UNDER in interleague games (18-22 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

(923) DETROIT (47-60) at (924) PITTSBURGH (48-58)

Trend: Detroit UNDER in DAY games (22-27 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Pittsburgh not good in interleague games (14-22, -7.65 units)

System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH

Trend: Pittsburgh trending UNDER in DAY games (19-24 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

(925) MINNESOTA (55-53) at (926) ST LOUIS (47-61)

Trend: Minnesota not as good against NL (11-13, -6.95 units)

System Match: FADE MINNESOTA

Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (24-42, -28.15 units)

System Match: FADE ST LOUIS

Trend: St Louis OVER in HOME games (29-21 O/U)

System Match: OVER

(927) NEW YORK-NL (50-56) at (928) KANSAS CITY (33-75)

Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (11-25, -22.60 units)

System Match: FADE NY METS

Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (17-48, -24.25 units)

System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY

(929) OAKLAND (30-78) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (60-45)

Trend: Oakland better bet in NIGHT games (24-38, +3.40 units)

System Match: OAKLAND

Trend: LAD better in NIGHT games (46-26, +4.85 units)

System Match: LA DODGERS

Trend: LAD OVER against LH starters (17-10 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: LAD OVER in interleague games (21-7 O/U!)

System Match: OVER

Top Head-To-Head Series Trends

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends.

NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow)