VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, October 4
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Wednesday, October 4, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE
*Many of the bullpen systems didn’t qualify today (check back tomorrow)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to ’00 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 88-101 SU (-44.1 units, ROI: -23.3%)
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA, FADE MILWAUKEE
Coming off wins/losses
HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been good bounce-back options, going 14-8 SU (4.75 units, ROI: 21.6%) and 16-6 on run lines (13.7 units, ROI: 62.3%) in their last 22 tries.
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY, PLAY MILWAUKEE
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 58-35 SU (19.85 units, ROI: 21.3%) and 50-43 on run lines (14.7 units, ROI: 15.8%) since ’13.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA, PLAY MINNESOTA
HOME FIELD has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 33-31 SU (-14.2 units, ROI: -22.2%) since 2013.
System Matches (SLIGHT): FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE MILWAUKEE
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 39-40 SU (-17.05 units, ROI: -21.6%) and 28-51 on run lines (-13.55 units, ROI: -17.2%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Power surges don’t tend to last in for underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +110 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 7-34 SU (-24.8 units, ROI: -60.5%) and 11-30 on run lines (-33.2 units, ROI: -81%) in the follow-up game since 2009.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 21-43 SU (-15.4 units, ROI: -24.1%) since 2016.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 96 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 46-50 SU (-22.72 units, ROI: -23.7%) since ’19.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE MILWAUKEE
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 30-22 SU (13.7 units, ROI: 26.3%) and 35-17 on run lines (14.8 units, ROI: 28.5%) in playoff games.
System Matches: TORONTO, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA, MIAMI
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in all 4 games
Wild Card Round Angles
