Who Should be NL Rookie of the Year?:
On Sunday, while most watched the early NFL games, Paul Skenes was busy mowing down Reds hitters—again. He struck out nine batters, not that anyone outside of Cincinnati or Pittsburgh noticed. For the second time in a month, he made the Reds look like they’d forgotten to bring their bats.
Skenes went twice through the lineup, rang up 15 outs, and called it a day. Just another afternoon of abbreviated brilliance in what’s been a rookie season full of it. But in a season that should be about proving you can handle the heat, Skenes has spent more time in the bullpen chair than on the mound after the sixth inning.
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He’s been brilliant, no question. Dominant? Absolutely. But when the competition is the Reds, the Cardinals, the Marlins, and the Cubs—all teams headed nowhere fast you start to wonder if his rookie resume has some fluff. Dominating bad teams in meaningless games isn’t exactly the stuff legends are made of.
The NL Rookie of the Year Race: Down to Two
Now, the NL Rookie of the Year race? That’s down to two: Paul Skenes, the Pirates’ golden arm, and Jackson Merrill, the Padres’ five-tool center fielder. Both have put together cases as compelling as a Perry Mason plot, but here’s the thing—Skenes hasn’t seen the seventh inning since gas was under three bucks a gallon. His last true marathon outing came against the Cardinals on July 23rd when he went 8.1 innings. Since then? Call it five-and-dive.
Here’s a little reality check for Skenes’ supporters:
August: 5.1, 6, 6, 6, 5 (28.1 IP)
September: 5, 6, 6, 5 (22 IP)
History Doesn’t Lie
Here’s what other pitchers did under the weight of their own expectations:
Dwight Gooden, 1984 August: 3, 4, 7, 9, 9, 9 (41 IP)
Gooden, September: 8, 9, 9, 8, 8 (42 IP)
José Fernández, 2013 August: 8, 5, 7, 6, 7, 6 (39 IP)
Fernández, September: 7, 7 (14 IP, shutdown)
Jacob deGrom, 2014 August: 7.1, 6, 6, 7 (26.1 IP)
deGrom, September: 6, 8, 7, 6 (27 IP)
Spencer Strider, 2022 August: 6.2, 2.2, 5, 6, 6 (26.1 IP)
Strider, September: 8, 6, 5, 5 (25 IP) — didn’t even win ROY.
The thing is, every one of these pitchers was given the ball late in the season and told, “Go deep.” They pitched into the seventh, eighth, ninth innings because their teams were either contending or they believed in building a warhorse.
Paul Skenes? He’s been great, sure. He’s a future Cy Young contender, no doubt about it. But right now? He’s a sports car you’re afraid to take out of the garage. The Pirates seem more interested in keeping the miles low than letting him open it up.
Merrill: The True Difference Maker
Meanwhile, down in San Diego, Jackson Merrill has been doing everything short of walking on water. The Padres didn’t baby their top rookie. They threw him into the fire, and he didn’t just survive—he thrived.
Let’s talk numbers, because they tell the story better than I ever could: 157 hits in 151 games, 75 runs, 24 home runs, and 89 RBIs. And he’s done all of this while playing center field like it’s his backyard. Oh, and those six go-ahead or game-tying homers in the eighth inning or later? Only a handful of players his age have done that since the Wright Brothers took flight. Jackson Merrill has tied Frank Robinson’s record for most in a season by a player under 21, and Frank Robinson, I’ll remind you, was a Hall of Famer.
While Merrill’s been doing his best Superman impersonation, the Padres have been climbing the standings. They’re 90-66, sitting one game away from clinching a playoff spot. They have been 75-48 since May 1st, the best record in baseball. Merrill isn’t just along for the ride; he’s a critical reason they’re there. His bat and glove have been as dependable as sunrise. Without him, they might have been printing early vacation brochures.
Now contrast that with Skenes. The Pirates, bless their hearts, are 73-83, dead last in the NL Central. Skenes has been good, sure, but good enough to save them from the basement? Not by a long shot. If Skenes didn’t throw a pitch this season, the Pirates would still be dusting off their golf clubs right about now.
The Final Start
Skenes has one more chance to make his case this Saturday at Yankee Stadium. Maybe the Pirates will let him off the leash, finally allowing him to pitch into the seventh inning. A great start, and he could pad those stats, get the ERA a little lower, and give voters something to think about. A bad start, though? It could sink him.
But here’s the thing: we’ve seen what he can do. We’ve seen the ceiling, and it’s only so high when you’re pitching in exhibition games against last-place teams. Dominating the Reds and Marlins in September isn’t exactly going to earn you a plaque in Cooperstown.
Merrill Has the Edge
While Skenes has been dazzling against AAAA competition, Merrill has been playing for a team with something on the line. Merrill’s success has come in real games, under real pressure. When the lights have been brightest, he hasn’t blinked. That’s the mark of a Rookie of the Year.
So when the dust settles and the votes are tallied, the question becomes: who’s really been the NL Rookie of the Year? The guy with the golden arm who hasn’t gone past six innings in two months, or the guy who’s been delivering clutch hits in games that actually matter?
Jackson Merrill has been the difference-maker. Skenes? He’s been a great pitcher in a season that’ll be forgotten by everyone but him.
