Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 2
A Game 1 instant classic set the stage for what could be a downright incredible World Series, as Freddie Freeman hit a walk-off grand slam in the 10th and the Dodgers took a 1-0 lead over the Yankees. Game 2 goes off tonight and will feature Carlos Rodon up against Yoshinobu Yamamoto with the same first pitch time (8:08 p.m. ET) on the same network (FOX) and with the same hellacious traffic to endure trying to get out of the parking lot after the game.
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers (-142, 9)
8:08 p.m. ET (FOX)
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One game doesn’t make a series, but the decision to go to Nestor Cortes deserves to be questioned for a long time. Cortes, who hadn’t pitched since September 18, induced a pop up from Shohei Ohtani before an intentional walk to Mookie Betts. Then Freeman hit the first pitch tank to send Dodger Stadium into a frenzy.
Tim Hill was right there. Tim Mayza was right there. Aaron Boone had lefties at his disposal that have pitched in some big spots for him this postseason and he opted not to use either one. Getting the start that he got from Gerrit Cole, it was kind of imperative to win that game, especially because you could have stole one after the Dodgers got a rare strong start from their starter. Jack Flaherty was solid over his 5.1 innings of work. The Dodgers pen was excellent.
And that was what LA needed to get a little bit of breathing room with all of their starting pitcher concerns. That game could be psychologically damaging for the Yankees and provide a huge boost for the Dodgers, who won one of the two projected Cole starts and are now a big favorite in Game 2.
Yamamoto and Rodon is a really fascinating pitching matchup. Yamamoto has allowed seven runs on 11 hits in 12.1 postseason innings with an 11/4 K/BB ratio. He was limited to 18 starts and 90 innings in his first MLB season due to injury and only made four starts down the stretch after missing nearly three months. He allowed seven runs (six earned) on 16 hits with a 21/5 K/BB ratio, but faced the Cubs, Braves, and Rockies twice.
He gave up five runs in three innings to start his MLB postseason career, but has only allowed two runs on six hits in his last 9.1 innings with a 10/2 K/BB ratio. His last start came October 17, so he’s on an aggressive amount of rest.
Rodon actually didn’t miss time this season and made 32 starts covering 175 innings. He had a 3.96 ERA with a 4.39 FIP, but had a 2.20 ERA over five September starts. He also had a 4.67 FIP, as he ran a 97.5% LOB% and gave up six homers. In the playoffs so far, he’s allowed seven runs on 15 hits in 41.1 innings but has a 22/1 K/BB ratio. That’s a lot of swing and miss to say the least, and he had 25 whiffs in his first start against Cleveland.
One thing that really concerns me for New York tonight is that Yamamoto gave up seven homers in 18 starts, while Rodon gave up 31 in 32. The Yankees had more hits and stole three bases last night, but only scored via the two-run homer from Giancarlo Stanton and two Jazz Chisholm Jr. steals in the 10th. They’re not a “manufacture runs” kind of lineup because they’re by and large a bad baserunning team and don’t have a ton of bat-to-ball contact hitters.
As great as this offense was during the regular season, they ranked 26th in BABIP and only ninth in batting average. They led the league with 237 home runs and Yamamoto is pretty stingy about allowing them.
For me, it’ll be the Dodgers tonight.
Pick: Dodgers -142
