Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went into the All-Star break going 1-1 with my best bets last Sunday, capping off a rollercoaster week that finished 3-3. It’s par for the course with this bet, which has been virtually a coin flip all season. As we enter the second half, the YRFI has leads overall 691-666 (50.9%) but both sides are down big units as neither can outrun the juice.
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The Marlins continue to be the most profitable NRFI team in MLB going 60-32 in the first half (65.2%) and up nearly 25 units. To put that in perspective, no other team has an NRFI rate higher than 56% and is up more than nine units. On the YRFI side, the Diamondbacks and Reds are tied for the best record at 60-39 (60.4%), but Arizona has been the slightly more profitable team up 12.8 units compared to just 11.7 for Cincinnati.
Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, July 14th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line.
Season Record: 33-27 (55.0%) +1.49u +1.3% ROI
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Ross Stripling is emerging as one of the auto-fade starting pitchers in MLB. He’s only made 12 appearances and seven starts due to a back injury, but he’s in the fifth percentile of xSLG and seventh percentile of barrel rate, so he’s not missing many bats. On the other side, Rich Hill has put together a very mediocre season in Pittsburgh. Absolutely none of his metrics excite me, except his .300 batting average against in the first inning this season. Hill’s fastball velocity is in the first percentile of pitchers, meaning he has the slowest hardball in the majors.
The Giants have had the more productive of the two lineups, with a respectable 30.9% scoring rate on the road this season (13-for-42). Their splits against lefties have also been solid, with an above-average wRC+ and .365 BABIP in the first inning. The Pirates have walked the plank after a blistering start. Pittsburgh went 19-9 to the YRFI in April followed by 14-12 in May, before cratering out at 9-17 in June. However, I think they will get a boost from the return of Ji-Man Choi, who homered in his return to the lineup last weekend.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Ross Stripling vs.:
Jack Suwinski (0-for-3, K)
Bryan Reynolds (0-for-4, K)
Henry Davis (never faced)
Rich Hill vs.:
Austin Slater (1-for-7, HR, K)
Wilmer Flores (5-for-17, HR, 5 Ks)
Patrick Bailey (1-for-3)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-135)
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Eduardo Rodriguez and Luis Castillo are a combined 25-5 to the NRFI this season. Rodriguez is coming off his first blemish, allowing an early run to the Athletics in his last start. That might be a red flag considering the top of the Mariners lineup is exponentially more dangerous, but I’ll give the lefty a pass considering it was his first start back from injury. He also draws a Seattle lineup tonight with the second-lowest wRC+ in the first inning vs. LHP this season.
Castillo has been fantastic for the Mariners, with his only hiccup being the 1.26 HRs allowed per nine innings, up from 0.78 last year. Those long balls are concerning, but overall he has allowed only a .167 batting average against in the opening inning. Castillo also gets the much easier side of this matchup, facing a Tigers lineup that has scored just eight times in 44 road games this season.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Eduardo Rodriguez vs:
J.P. Crawford (5-for-12, 4 Ks, 2 BBs)
Julio Rodriguez (1-for-2, HR, K)
Ty France (3-for-14, HR, 5 Ks)
Luis Castillo vs.:
Zach McKinstry (never faced)
Riley Greene (never faced)
Spencer Torkelson (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-155)
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