Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I’m tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years and I will do my best to find you the edge. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, May 12th.
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(All odds via Draftkings)
Cubs at Twins
Let’s start in Minneapolis where Sonny Gray has enjoyed a strong start to the season. The righty has pitched to a 1.35 ERA overall through his first 7 starts with a 6-1 NRFI record, and is a perfect 4-0 at Target Field. His full game data has been equally impressive with Gray registering his highest K/9 rate since the 2020 season with the Reds. In the 1st inning he is also allowing just a .160 batting average against.
On the other side, Drew Smyly has also enjoyed a decent start to the campaign with a 5-2 NRFI record and an xFIP below 4.00 in the opening frame. The Twins have also really struggled against LHP, in fact they have the lowest wRC+ in the 1st inning against southpaws this season. Both lineups are pretty below average in the opening frame. The Cubs have just a 26% run scoring rate on the road, while the Twins have been even worse at Target Field, scoring an early run in just 21% of home games.
Bet: No Run First Inning (-130)
Phillies at Rockies
Something strange is happening at Coors Field. The YRFI is just 8-8 at altitude so far this season, a far cry from the 58% rate we saw last season (47-for-81). Even more puzzling, the Rockies have the lowest 1st inning scoring rate at home of any team in baseball this season at just 12.5% (2-for-16). I think eventually we will see some positive regression in both categories, and this pitching matchup is a good place to start. Taijuan Walker has gotten knocked around a bit, especially early, with just a 1-3 NRFI record on the road so far. He also has a HR/FB rate of nearly 30% which is not good for a pitcher in the thin air at Coors Field.
Austin Gomber has enjoyed a 5-2 NRFI record this season, but he’s allowing a batting average of .310 and an xFIP of nearly 5.00 in the 1st inning, so I would expect some regression there soon. The Phillies lineup has struggled a bit against LHP this season, and is well below average in wRC+, but I still like the power righty bats they will send to the plate with Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and JT Realmuto all projected at the top of the order. We won’t get rich quickly by laying big juice with a YRFI, but I think this is a good spot for some early fireworks in Denver. Be sure to shop around to find the best number, as I’m seeing -150 at some shops here in Las Vegas.
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-165)
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