Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
It was a 2-0 Friday for our YRFI/NRFI best bets thanks to the inept Marlins offense and a two-out home run from Nolan Arenado. We’ll get back to Miami a little later in the article, but this bet has evolved into one of the most popular in MLB, mainly because you only have to sweat it out for about 20 minutes. You can track the results of my YRFI/NRFI wagers this season here. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Saturday, June 10th.
All odds via DraftKings
Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox
Our journey on the high seas continues with the Marlins, who are cashing NRFIs at over a 67% rate this season (43-for-64). That mark improves to nearly 82% (31-for-38) when priced at -120 or higher, which it is again today. Unlike yesterday, when Eury Perez was the more troublesome side of the matchup for Miami, I’m less concerned about Sandy Alcantara today, who has posted an 11-1 NRFI record this season. His overall ERA at 5.07 is a bit of a head-scratcher, but those struggles have not translated to the first inning, where the reigning Cy Young winner has just a .143 batting average against with a 2.65 xFIP.
Michael Kopech also has solid data in the opening frame this season with a 9-3 NRFI record (6-1 at home) with a .163 batting average against and a slightly elevated 4.82 xFIP. The righty brings the heat, in the 84th percentile of fastball velocity this season, which is always a good NRFI indicator, especially in a day game after a night game, where the offenses might take a little more time to get warmed up. He also gets to face an inept Miami lineup that has just a 17% scoring rate in the first inning this season (11-for-64) which is the lowest in MLB.
Here’s how each pitcher has fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Sandy Alcantara vs:
Tim Anderson (never faced)
Andrew Benintendi (never faced)
Luis Robert Jr. (never faced)
Michael Kopech vs:
Luis Arraez (3-for-9)
Jorge Soler (2-for-3)
Bryan De La Cruz (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-125)
Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians
What a wild one last night between these teams with the Guardians completing multiple comebacks to win a high-scoring 10-9 affair in 14 innings. I’m hoping there is a bit of a hangover today and the pitching matchup leads me to believe we should see a scoreless opening inning. Triston McKenzie looked dominant in his first start back from the IL last time out. He not only pitched a scoreless first inning but four more innings after that with 10 total strikeouts. I like him to get through a clean top of the first against an Astros lineup that will be without slugger Yordan Alvarez, who was recently placed on the IL with an oblique strain.
Rookie J.P. France has posted a 5-1 NRFI record this season with some interesting reverse splits. The righty is pitching to a lofty 5.94 ERA at home compared to 1.04 on the road this season. Thankfully, this game is not being played in Houston. France also gets the advantage of a fresh look at this Guardians lineup, which is always advantage NRFI. The one fly in the ointment here is Cleveland’s offense, which has a 41.9% scoring rate (13-for-31) at home in the first inning this season, one of the highest in the league.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
J.P. France vs:
Steven Kwan (never faced)
Amed Rosario (never faced)
Jose Ramirez (never faced)
Triston McKenzie vs:
Jeremy Pena (0-for-5)
Jose Altuve (3-for-7, 2 HR)
Kyle Tucker (1-for-5)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-125)