Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 1-1 on Friday with my best bets, moving my record to 23-21 on the season. It was an easy winner in the wild Braves/Reds game with the YRFI cashing just 3 batters in. The Marlins ruined our sweep by scoring an unlikely run in the bottom of the 1st against the Pirates. It was just the 6th time Miami had scored in 39 home games this season, and it was also the only run they scored the entire game.
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Sometimes it’s hard to remove emotion when gambling, but those unlucky breaks happen all the time in this market because one moment is all it takes to win or lose. Onward we go. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Saturday, June 24th.
All odds via DraftKings
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
These two teams have a combined 29-11 NRFI record so far this month, and the pitching matchup looks ripe for that trend to continue. Pablo Lopez has done his best work away from Target Field with a 2.72 ERA on the road compared to 5.94 at home. Lopez draws a young Tigers lineup that has failed to score a first-inning run in four straight games and has a below-average rate of 24% this season (18-for-74).
Rookie Reese Olson has posted an unblemished 3-0 NRFI record with exceptional data to back it up. In fact, he has yet to allow a hit in the opening frame through his first three starts. Olson puts that streak to the test against a Twins lineup that has scored only one first-inning run in their last 10 road games with an overall rate of 23% (18-for-77).
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Pablo Lopez vs:
Zach McKinstry (0-for-5)
Spencer Torkelson (never faced)
Kerry Carpenter (never faced)
Reese Olson vs:
Edouard Julien (never faced)
Carlos Correa (never faced)
Alex Kirilloff (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-120)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
Just because things didn’t work out with this bet yesterday does not give me any less confidence in going back to it again today at a much more favorable price. Pirates starter Osvaldo Bido allowed a run in his first career start two weeks ago against the Cubs, but then he settled down and followed with three scoreless frames in what turned out to be a solid debut. He faced the Cubs again five days later and allowed three runs over six innings with seven strikeouts, but he was able to successfully navigate the first inning unscathed. So while his 1-1 NRFI record is unsatisfying, I think he’ll fare better here with a fresh look at the Marlins, who despite scoring yesterday still have the lowest home rate this season at 15.4% (6-for-39).
Miami counters with Bryan Hoeing, who held up well last time out against the Blue Jays, tossing four scoreless frames with five strikeouts and no walks. It was Hoeing’s first start since April 30th, so it’s hard to put any weight behind his 2-1 NRFI record with such a limited sample and such a wide gap in between. I can, however, grade the nine consecutive games Pittsburgh has gone without scoring a run in the first inning, as their lineup seems to be regressing after a fast start. The Pirates were fortunate to win yesterday’s game with a late rally, but I see this one starting slow.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Osvaldo Bido vs:
Luis Arraez (never faced)
Jorge Soler (never faced)
Bryan De La Cruz (never faced)
Bryan Hoeing vs:
Ke’Bryan Hayes (never faced)
Andrew McCutchen (0-for-1)
Connor Joe (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-105)
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