Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I’m tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years and I will do my best to find you the edge. Yesterday I got off to a great start with these writeups hitting both of my best bets. Keep reading to find out my top plays for Saturday, May 6th.
Top MLB Resources:
(All odds via DraftKings)
Red Sox at Phillies
Corey Kluber and Bailey Falter take the mound tonight in a battle of struggling hurlers. Both feature full game ERAs north of 5.00 and a combined NRFI record of 5-6 this season. Kluber’s 1st inning data has been really poor with an xFIP of 6.87, which is alarming, but still lower than his actual FIP of 10.70. Falter’s xFIP is a little more reasonable in the 1st inning at 4.37, but his overall data is lukewarm at best.
Meanwhile both lineups are very dangerous, especially the Phillies with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner manning the top 3 spots. Harper has never faced Kluber in his career, but Schwarber and Turner are a combined 5-for-13 with 2 doubles. Nick Castellanos will likely bat 4th tonight, the former American Leaguer has the most exposure against Kluber with 49 career plate appearances and a .271 batting average against. Boston’s lineup only has 4 career plate appearances against Falter but they have an above average wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season.
The YRFI has hit in 6 of the last 9 games for the Red Sox, and it’s been 5 straight for the Phillies. I’m betting on that trend to continue tonight.
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-140)
Athletics at Royals
The highest 1st inning scoring rate for road teams this season belongs to the Oakland Athletics. Does that make sense? Not really, but Oakland has pushed across an early run in 60% of games this season (9-of-16) including last night in KC. Today the pitching matchup and game total north of 10 leads me to believe more runs will be scored, hopefully early.
Ken Waldichuk has been fortunate this season posting a 6-0 NRFI record despite an elevated xFIP that’s nearly twice his actual FIP. Last year in 7 starts Waldichuk posted just a 3-4 NRFI record, and I believe he will regress as the season goes along. Brady Singer takes the ball for the Royals, the righty has allowed an early run in 2 of 3 home starts so far this season and is pitching to an ERA above 8.00 for the full game. Both pitchers get the advantage of essentially a fresh look against the opposing lineups. Singer has just 16 career plate appearances against the Athletics, 10 from Tony Kemp, who likely won’t step to the plate in the 1st inning. Waldichuk has only 3 career plate appearances against the current Royals lineup, all from Matt Duffy, who also is projected to hit in the bottom of the order.
The weather might also be a factor here, with game time temperatures in Kansas City forecasted to touch 90 degrees and steady winds blowing out to left center. Hopefully the warmer weather and stiff breeze sparks early scoring.
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-140)
