Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 1-1 yet again on Saturday’s best bets. Chase Silseth lost command in the first inning, issuing two walks and hitting a batter before surrendering a pair of runs on a two-out single in the top of the first and finally killing the NRFI. However, later in the evening, things went as expected at altitude with both the Rockies and White Sox scoring in the first inning, easily cashing the YRFI. My record now stands at 2-2 for the week with best bets, down slightly on the juice. But all of that mediocrity can be erased with two winning selections today. Onward.
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, August 20th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 50-44 (53.2%) -0.36u -0.2% ROI
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Eduardo Rodriguez is 15-3 to the NRFI this season and 9-1 on the road with solid underlying data across the board. His recent form has been a little shaky with a .358 BABIP this month and an xFIP slightly elevated above 4.00. However, he draws a Guardians lineup that is dead last in wRC vs. LHP this month with just a .208 BABIP.
Logan Allen is 13-5 to the NRFI this season in his rookie campaign. The biggest issue for him has been walks as the lefty has issued 10 of them in 17 innings this month. He does get the easier side of this matchup getting a fresh look at a Tigers lineup that really struggles against southpaws. Detroit is hitting just .156 on balls in play this month with the third-lowest walk rate vs. lefties (3.7%).
I was able to find -125 widely available in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -130.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Eduardo Rodriguez vs.:
Steven Kwan (0-for-4, K)
Jose Ramirez (5-for-19, 2 HRs, 5 Ks)
Oscar Gonzalez (1-for-3, 2 Ks)
Logan Allen vs.:
Matt Vierling (never faced)
Spencer Torkelson (never faced)
Riley Greene (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-125)
Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
Kyle Bradish is 21-1 to the NRFI this season with elite underlying data to back it up including a .139 batting average against and 34.6% strikeout rate in the first inning. His recent form has been just as solid with just a .190 batting average against and 3.40 xFIP in three starts this month. He draws the significantly easier side of this matchup facing an Athletics lineup that has posted just a 22.9% scoring rate in the first inning at home this season, well below the MLB average of 32.3%.
JP Sears has struggled in the first inning this season with just a 16-8 NRFI record. I’d be lying to you if I said I found a lot of positive data on Sears, but the one thing that stood out to me was his home/road splits. Sears is allowing just a .231 BABIP with a 1.00 WHIP in the first inning at home this season. The Orioles have hit lefties well lately, but overall, this season they have scored a first-inning run in just 17.1% of their road games (11-for-61) which is the second-lowest rate in the league.
I was able to find -120 widely available in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -125.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Kyle Bradish vs.:
Esteury Ruiz (never faced)
Zack Gelof (never faced)
Brent Rooker (never faced)
JP Sears vs.:
Adley Rutschman (2-for-5, HR, 2 Ks, BB)
Ryan Mountcastle (2-for-7, HR, K)
Anthony Santander (2-for-9, 2 Ks)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-120)
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