Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 2-0 with Saturday’s best bets as the Nationals/Marlins game coasted to an easy NRFI. It was followed by redemption for Eloy Jimenez, who came through with a two-out RBI in Chicago which cashed the YRFI. That White Sox game is the perfect lesson why in this market, or any betting market frankly, heeding the advice of Ted Lasso is crucial. Be a goldfish. Stubborn bettors might have scoffed at the idea of going back to the Athletics/White Sox YRFI one day after suffering a bad beat on that same wager. But the numbers said it was a bet, so we put recency bias aside and fired away. My record now stands at 3-1 on the week. Onward we go.
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, August 27th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 53-47 (53.0%) -1.36u -0.6% ROI
Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox
Caleb Ferguson has made only three starts this season and is 2-1 to the NRFI. This month, he’s pitched 7.2 innings and has allowed a 2.09 WHIP with a .448 BABIP. He draws a Red Sox lineup that has scored an early run in three straight games and five of the last six. Rafael Devers was a late scratch for Boston, which is obviously not ideal, but that will give Alex Cora a chance to stack another right-handed bat near the top of the lineup against the lefty Ferguson.
Tanner Houck returned this week from a two-month stint on the IL. He struggled against the Astros in his last start, allowing a first-inning home run to Kyle Tucker. This season, he’s just 9-5 to the NRFI and draws one of the toughest first-inning lineups in baseball today. The Dodgers have the second-highest scoring rate in the first inning this season at 40.6% (52-for-128) just behind the Atlanta Braves. After Mookie Betts, Los Angeles will stack all lefties in the heart of their order. Overall lefty hitters are slugging nearly 250 points higher against Houck this season than righties (.515 to .266).
I was able to find -120 available in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -130 but not at the -135 price being offered by DraftKings at the time of publication.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Caleb Ferguson vs.:
Alex Verdugo (never faced)
Justin Turner (never faced)
Adam Duvall (never faced)
Tanner Houck vs.:
Mookie Betts (never faced)
Freddie Freeman (0-for-1, 2 BBs)
David Peralta (never faced)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-135)
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Trevor Williams is just 15-10 to the NRFI this season and 7-6 on the road. His recent form is also poor with a 6.60 ERA over his last three starts and six home runs allowed in just 15 innings. Obviously, the Marlins lineup is not the most prolific, as we’ve highlighted all season, but I view them a little differently now with the addition of Josh Bell and the return of Jazz Chisholm Jr. from injury. I also like that Luis Arraez was moved back into the leadoff spot today, which is where he thrived for much of the early part of the season before his recent struggles.
JT Chargois is making his first start of the season. The righty has a decent fastball and has not allowed an earned run in three innings this month. His ERA for the season is hovering around 3.5, but his xFIP is about a half-run higher. There’s nothing overly dominant about him, and he draws a Nationals lineup that has been relatively consistent at the top all season with a 30.7% first-inning scoring rate on the road compared to 32.3% at home. Both of those marks are at or above league average.
I was able to find -110 available in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -120 but not at the -125 being offered by DraftKings at the time of publication.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Trevor Williams vs.:
Luis Arraez (4-for-9, 2B, HR)
Jorge Soler (1-for-6, 3 Ks, 2 BBs)
Josh Bell (2-for-10, 2B, HR, K, BB)
JT Chargois vs.:
CJ Abrams (0-for-1, K)
Lane Thomas (0-for-2, K)
Joey Meneses (0-for-1)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-125)
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