Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I continued to tread water this week going 1-1 with Saturday’s best bets. Alec Bohm went boom in the first inning as our read on Royals starter Alec Marsh was correct. Both lineups were sleepy to start in St. Louis, and I think Steven Matz has been pitching better than expected since the break. Overall, the NRFI went 10-5 on Saturday after the YRFI went 10-4 on Friday. This truly is a cappers market, as I don’t see any definitive YRFI or NRFI trend developing on the macro level this season with both sides down significant units thanks to the juice. Overall, through 1,667 games, the YRFI has a very slight edge of 840 to 827 (50.4%).
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, August 6th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 44-38 (53.7%) +0.54u +0.3% ROI
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Bryce Miller has been impressive with a 13-2 NRFI record through his first 15 starts. The rookie has also not allowed a home run in the first inning all season with nearly a 40% strikeout rate. I’m a little concerned about his home/away splits with a 3.49 ERA in Seattle compared to 5.68 on the road. He’s also hit a wall in his last two starts allowing six earned runs each to the Twins and Red Sox. Despite that, he was able to get through the first inning unscathed in both outings. He’s also getting his first look at this Angels lineup and Shohei Ohtani, who has only homered once in his last eight games and finds himself just two in front of Matt Olson for the league lead.
Chase Silseth has been a nice surprise out of the Halos bullpen, posting a 3-0 NRFI record with a miniscule 1.35 xFIP in the first inning. In fact, in three starts this season his overall xFIP is a very respectable 2.60 compared to 5.48 in eight appearances out of the bullpen. His last outing in Atlanta was particularly impressive, I remember because I was on the YRFI thinking to myself there is no way he keeps the Braves lineup in check. Well, I was wrong. Not only did he get through the first inning unscathed, but he went five total and allowed just three hits and one earned run. If he can carry that momentum over to this outing, he should be able to navigate the opening frame against a Mariners lineup that has posted just a 24% scoring rate (13-for-54) on the road this season.
I was able to find plenty of +100 available for this bet and feel comfortable playing it at that price.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Bryce Miller vs.:
Luis Rengifo (never faced)
Shohei Ohtani (never faced)
CJ Cron (never faced)
Mike Moustakas (never faced)
Chase Silseth vs.:
JP Crawford (never faced)
Julio Rodriguez (never faced)
Eugenio Suarez (never faced)
Cal Raleigh (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (+100)
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Lance Lynn makes his second start with the Dodgers and the first on the road. His debut went okay, allowing three earned over seven innings at home against the Athletics. This will be a much stiffer test against a legit lineup that has recorded an above-average 35.7% scoring rate (20-for-56) at home. Overall, Lynn’s NRFI record this season is subpar at 12-9 and just 6-6 on the road. He has allowed eight of his 31 total home runs in the first inning.
Rich Hill makes his debut for the Padres since being traded at the deadline. His 17-5 NRFI record is pretty solid with decent data backing it up. However, he has yet to face the Dodgers this season, who are absolutely mashing lefties with the second-highest wRC+ in the first inning. Overall, Los Angeles has a 41.2% scoring rate (45-for-109) in the first inning which is the highest of any team in baseball.
I was able to find -120 in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -130 but not at the -140 being offered by DraftKings at the time of publication. Shop around.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Lance Lynn vs.:
Ha-Seong Kim (2-for-3, HR)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (2-for-4, HR)
Juan Soto (1-for-3, K)
Manny Machado (4-for-13, 2B, 4 Ks, 2 BBs)
Rich Hill vs.:
Mookie Betts (1-for-4, K)
Freddie Freeman (3-for-10, K, 2 BBs)
Will Smith (1-for-2, K)
JD Martinez (4-for-16, 2B, HR, 7 Ks, 2 BBs)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-140)
