Best Bets for UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
This week’s UFC 297 takes place in Toronto, Ontario, where fight fans are as voracious as any place in the world. Canadian fans will enjoy twelve bouts on the card with nine of the matchups featuring Canadian athletes. Eight of nine Canadian fighters will be favored in their matchups.
Last week, my release of Manel Kape to finish his adversary Matheus Nicolau was canceled as Kape, like he has done so many times prior, missed weight by a whopping 3.5 pounds. Kape needs to compete against men his size and quit angling for advantage in the 125-pound flyweight class.
Sean Strickland -135 vs. Dricus Du Plessis +115
Welterweight title (170 pounds)
Du Plessis, from South Africa, is a second-degree blackbelt in kickboxing as well as the second-ranked athlete in the division. He aggressively approaches opponents, walking straight to them to engage in fisticuffs. Du Plessis has substantial power behind his kicks, knees and fists, as witnessed by his 20-2 record. Nineteen of those 20 wins have come via the finish.
Du Plessis has one way of attack, like a bat out of hell. Undefeated in the UFC, few have dealt with his pressure and power, yet few have taken Du Plessis into the third round or beyond, where he has shown the propensity to slow down and tire.
To enhance matters, there is a psychological battle being waged by Du Plessis as he badgered Strickland about his most unfortunate upbringing. This foray into something so personal has tripped Strickland’s fuses, and many wonder if Du Plessis has gone perhaps just a bit too far in his attempt to gain advantage in this bout.
In champion Strickland, we have an athlete who just captured the championship in a complete battering of former champion Israel Adesanya. A black belt in BJJ, Strickland has formidable ground skills that he rarely calls upon, choosing instead to enter the fire by striking with almost any opponent. He is skilled but can be reckless. He’s intelligent but can be blown off of his course by emotion.
Against Adesanya, he was able to fight his style of fight and back the former champion up. He battered Adesanya for five rounds. However, against the monster that is Alex Pereira, he thought he got cocky and decided to stand against the most decorated striker in the organization and was KO’d in the first round.
This gets us to the crux of this bout.
In Du Plessis, we’ll witness an all-out forward-pressing, power-striking attack. It will be unrelenting, for Du Plessis wants to finish all opponents early and has been pretty successful with this tactic. No UFC foes have been able to solve Du Plessis’ power nor take him deep enough into bouts where his cardio can be used against him.
Foundational to this fight is that this will be Du Plessis’ first five-round UFC tussle, where Strickland has experienced main event drama numerous times.
Strickland must corral his emotion and systematically break down the raging bull in order to force this bout into the fourth round and beyond. I believe he’ll hold a substantial advantage in experience and cardio over the challenger, who, by then, is prone to struggle with efficiency and fight effectiveness.
Strickland owns an advantage in the level of foes he’s faced as well as, most especially, his cardio and ability to fight well into the championship rounds.
Du Plessis is the bull, and if he is to be effective, Strickland needs to be the matador. Can we trust Strickland to overcome his emotion in this fight and execute the plan coach Nicksick and he have designed?
We’ll find out Saturday night!
Total in this fight: 2.5 -120 Under
This total opened at 3.5 Under -115, then went to 1.5 early this week before settling here. There seems to be as much confusion on this total as there is trying to handicap Strickland’s mentality for this bout.
Mayra Bueno Silva -160 vs. Raquel Pennington +135
Women’s bantamweight (135lbs) title
This five-round title fight features the number two-ranked bantamweight in Pennington against the third-ranked fighter in the division in Bueno Silva.
Bueno Silva has accelerated up the ranks of the division, but she has done so against moderate UFC competition. Her most impressive fight, her last, was ruled NC because she had a banned substance (Adderall) in her system, which she uses for ADHD, something that I believe did not influence that fight in any way, shape, or form.
Bueno Silva is a brown belt in BJJ who trains at Florida’s ATT, one of the most renowned fight camps in the country. There, she can train and perfect her craft against many talented, diversely equipped athletes.
On her game, Bueno Silva is as mean as a junkyard dog. She charges straight at opponents looking to bludgeon them into the shadow realm.
That said, Bueno Silva’s level of competition faced leaves something to be desired in my handicapping, and it’s important to note that she lost a one-sided decision five bouts ago against Manon Fiorot.
In Rocky Pennington, we get a grinding, gritty, forward-pressing wrestling-based scrapper who will look to smother Bueno Silva, press her against the fence, and then drag her to the canvas. Pennington’s wrestling/grappling chops are supplemented by the fact that the purple belt in BJJ trains at elevation in Colorado Springs at Altitude MMA.
Pennington’s level of competition faced exceeds that of Bueno Sila as well. She’s firing fresh after having almost a year off.
In a five-round fight, cardio can have a dynamic effect on each participant. It’s my judgment that Pennington must survive the onslaught from Bueno Silva early and navigate this bout into the fourth round and beyond in order to take control of a somewhat frontrunning bully in Bueno Silva in the later stages.
I’ll lean with the more experienced wrestler here.
Pick: Pennington + 135
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -170
The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops this Friday around Noon PT, as these fights are in Toronto. Find all my official releases there.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the animosities!
