Noche UFC 3 Predictions – Lopes vs. Silva:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his Noche UFC 3 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 1-3, -2.38 Units (-53.13% ROI)
Since 2020: 739-722 (+177.97 Units, 10.21% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 7-6 (53.85%)
Article History: 478-308-1 (60.81%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Diego Lopes (+200) vs. Jean Silva (-245)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Featherweight
Diego Lopes has had one of the quickest rises in the UFC. He made his debut as a late replacement fighter just over two years ago and pushed the undefeated Movsar Evloev to his limit. He then went on a five-fight win streak, defeating UFC stars such as Dan Ige and Brian Ortega. However, when given the chance to fight for a UFC title, he seemed to reach his ceiling, a loss to all-time featherweight great Alexander Volkanovski. Lopes gained popularity for a trio of first-round finish victories versus Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, and Sodiq Yusuff, but when fighting higher-level competition, the finishes have not come easy. The performances have still been very solid, but I wonder if his window to win the belt has come and gone, or even if he ever was a title-caliber fighter. Statistically, he does not fit the profile with a -1.06 significant strike differential. His striking accuracy and striking defense numbers are both sub 50%. He attempts nearly two submissions per 15 minutes in the cage, but his success rate is nothing to write home about.
Jean Silva is on his own Diego Lopes-like ascension, but perhaps even more impressive. He is 5-0 in his UFC career with a 100% finish rate. He has knocked out UFC veterans such as Drew Dober, Charles Jourdain and Melsik Baghdasaryan, and he submitted Bryce Mitchell earlier this year. He is a member of the Fighting Nerds team, which has been on fire for the past few years but had a rare bad showing last week in Paris (Borralho and Ruffy lost). That said, Silva is perhaps the most impressive member of the team, given he has left absolutely no doubt about the result in every single one of his UFC fights. He lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute and avoids 56% of the strikes his opponents throw. He does not press the grappling action, but his takedown defense has been great at 86%.
Diego Lopes has undoubtedly fought the tougher strength of schedule, but Silva has fought more than just roster fillers. He has risen to the occasion every time he has entered the cage and has the underlying metrics that indicate his performances are no fluke. Silva is not a big featherweight at 5’7” with a 69-inch reach. That said, he fought Drew Dober up a weight class and was able to find the knockout despite being the smaller combatant. Lopes’ frame is much more imposing at 5’11” with a 72.5-inch reach. Silva has never fought in a main event, which is a new level of pressure for a fighter on the rise. He just saw his teammates and friends’ winning streaks end in Paris and may be feeling a bit of pressure to get the Fighting Nerds team back on track. We have seen Lopes’s ceiling, but we have not seen how high Silva can rise. I think his speed is going to be the difference, and I expect him to win, as long as he does not get caught headhunting.
FIGHT WINNER: Jean Silva
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Rob Font (-115) vs. David Martinez (-105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Bantamweight
Rob Font has been a UFC gatekeeper for a long time and has carried that distinction well. He is 12-7 as a UFC fighter. His last four losses have all come to fighters who have either won or fought for UFC championships. He has turned back hyped up prospects such as Adrian Yanez, Kyler Phillips and Jean Matsumoto in the past two years despite now being 38 years old. Additionally, the veteran is quite wily. He has been the underdog in his last three victories. Font has great power and crisp striking. His takedown defense can be cracked by the best in the division, but most struggle to get Rob Font to the ground.
David Martinez is 12-1 as a professional fighter and 1-0 in the UFC. He won his debut in the organization versus Saimon Oliveira via first-round knockout, earning a performance of the night bonus. Prior to joining the UFC, he was a Combate Global champion. Additionally, he earned his contract on Contender Series. If those stats are coupled with his first UFC win, it paints an impressive statistical picture. A +2.7 significant strike differential and a 67% significant strike defense rate. He has faced three takedown attempts in the UFC cage and has defended them all, but that part of his game is not likely to be tested in this matchup.
Rob Font’s strength of schedule towers over David Martinez’s resume. He is 11 years older than Martinez, but he will still have physical advantages as the one-inch taller fighter and having a pronounced four-inch reach advantage. Rob Font is past the key age 35, which usually marks a fighter’s decline, but he has looked like the same fighter he has always been. He has not lost to an opponent as green as Martinez since he was on the regional scene. I think that this is going to be a straightforward day at the office for Font, and there could be a live betting opportunity if he starts the first round conservatively.
FIGHT WINNER: Rob Font
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Rob Font (-115) vs Martinez, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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Jared Gordon (-218) vs. Rafa Garcia (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Lightweight
Jared Gordon has been in the UFC since 2017 and has put together a 9-6, 1 NC record in the organization. Six of his wins in the Octagon have come via decision, but two of his three career UFC knockout victories have come in his last two wins. Perhaps the 37-year-old is getting more impatient as he ages. For his entire UFC run, he has been a well-rounded fighter who can mix it up enough on the feet to set up takedowns and establish control wherever possible. He is a cerebral fighter and takes what is given to him. Additionally, he is very tough and has not been knocked out since 2019 (vs Charles Oliveira). Like most fighters who have been in the organization for nearly a decade, he has fought an impressive strength of schedule and dispatched pretty much everyone who wasn’t of a ranked pedigree.
Rafa Garcia is 5-4 in the UFC and usually wins through his wrestling. But he is not an elite wrestler, just a good one, which usually means he has limited paths to victory when fighting true grappling specialists. His hands are okay, but his power is nonexistent, and his reach is unremarkable for a lightweight at 70 inches. I think he is on the fringe of being UFC caliber and his spot in the organization is strengthened by the fact he is coached by UFC legend Cub Swanson. His main card billing on this card has as much to do with his heritage as it does his accomplishments in the UFC. He has just one finish in the organization and is no stranger to boring fights.
FIGHT WINNER: Jared Gordon
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Parlay- Jean Silva/Jared Gordon (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
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Kelvin Gastelum (-230) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+190)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-220) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+170)
Catchweight (191 Pounds)
Kelvin Gastelum has missed weight for the third time in his UFC career. A former welterweight missing the middleweight limit by five pounds is a bit head-scratching, considering his weight issues have been well-documented, and he has gone great lengths to squander his potential. He is a guy who gave prime Israel Adesanya an all-time great fight, but then got submitted in a minute by Jack Hermansson. He is just 33 years old despite having already walked into the UFC cage 24 times and winning a season of The Ultimate Fighter before his career officially kicked off, but he is still unprofessional. He struggles with cardio, and at times displays a total lack of fight IQ. He does most of his training at a small local gym in Yuma, Arizona, and has not been fully committed to the sport for many years despite having an excellent skill set for success at the highest level. He has fast hands and good boxing technique and a very good wrestling base, although the wrestling has fallen off a bit lately.
Dustin Stoltzfus is a fighter who I had pegged as N.F.L. (not for long) in the UFC, but he has managed to hold on to his career with some impressive results after starting his UFC career by going 0-3. He is 3-3 in his last six fights, with the last two victories coming via finish as an underdog of +170 and +260. He is no stranger to shocking the world and does have more power than I initially gave him credit for. That said, he is in for an uphill battle versus Kelvin Gastelum. If Gastelum took this fight camp even semi-seriously, he should be able to win this fight, but given the weight miss, I’m not sure he took it seriously at all. Stoltzfus is now a veteran, and as such, I believe he can capitalize on Gastelum’s mental lapses. I want nothing to do with this fight because I have little trust in Gastelum. I still am not fully in on Stoltzfus’s potential beyond being a warm body to help populate undercards.
FIGHT WINNER: Kelvin Gastelum
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Pass
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Alexander Hernandez (-102) vs. Diego Ferreira (-118)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez is stepping back in the cage on a very quick turnaround after knocking out Chase Hooper at UFC 319 on August 16th. He didn’t take much damage in that bout and is trying to ride the momentum he has found after his career was on shaky legs. Overall, he is 9-7 in the UFC, but he is 3-0 dating back to October of 2024. He moved back up to lightweight after an unsuccessful run at featherweight, and the easier weight cut has treated him well. Hernandez has always been physically imposing, but with the bulk and the tough weight cut at featherweight, he lacked cardio. Two of his last three wins have come via decision, which perhaps indicates he is more comfortable going deep into fights than he once was. His career striking differential is still negative, and he is still far from an accurate striker, but those metrics have been trending in the right direction lately.
Diego Ferreira is a true UFC veteran at 40 years old. He has been in the organization for over a decade and has found a way to rejuvenate a career that was on its last legs after a three-fight losing streak and multiple injuries that forced him to remain on the sidelines. He is 2-1 in his last three fights with two finishes. His loss came to Grant Dawson in a violent contest that went to the judges’ scorecards. Ferreira’s best asset in this fight is his veteran savvy and his ability to win the fight if it lasts into the second and third rounds. He is statistically the better fighter and a prime candidate to live bet if he loses round 1 without taking overwhelming damage, but Hernandez is the fighter I see as more likely to find a finish.
FIGHT WINNER: Alex Hernandez
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Pass
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Santiago Luna (-135) vs. Quang Le (+114)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Bantamweight
Santiago Luna is a 6-0, 21-year-old fighter hailing from Mexico, making his UFC debut. He has a 100% finish rate with two knockouts and four submission victories. That said, the highest organization he has fought in is Tuff-N-Uff (versus a fighter with a 4-6 record). He did not fight in Contender Series, and he has not fought an opponent with any real high-level mixed martial arts experience. Quang Le is 9-2 as a professional fighter and 1-2 in the UFC. All three of his UFC fights have been exciting, and he won via rear-naked choke in his most recent bout as a +105 underdog versus Gaston Bolanos. Before coming to the UFC, he fought in LFA, and overall, 66% of his professional victories have come via finish. His experience in the UFC and higher-level competition will be the difference. Le is a good striker and dangerous grappler, as long as he protects his chin, he will find a way to defeat his young opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Quang Le
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Quang Le (+105) vs Luna, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
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Jose Medina (+330) vs. Dusko Todorovic (-425)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+160)
Middleweight
Jose Medina’s claim to UFC fame was being one tough customer. In his second UFC fight, he was a +550 underdog to Zach Reese and showed a great chin and heart to make it to the final bell in a decision loss. He tried to use his toughness against Ateba Gautier and failed spectacularly, getting knocked out via a brutal knee in the first round. Additionally, Medina lost in Contender Series via decision, and the heart he showed in that fight got him a shot in the UFC anyway. This dude is as N.F.L. as they come. Heart is great, but it doesn’t win fights unless you have other skills, and he does not have the skills to defeat UFC-level opponents. Dusko Todorovic has had a very tough UFC career. He is 3-6 overall, with all three victories coming via KO. He has been knocked out four times and has also sustained a brutal knee injury in the cage. His losses have come to some very tough opponents, including Mansur Abdul-Malik, Christian Leroy Duncan, Gregory Rodriguez, and Chidi Njokuani. I expect Todorovic to tee off on Medina and win this fight via knockout as long as he doesn’t totally forget about defense.
FIGHT WINNER: Dusko Todorovic
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Dusko Todorovic to win via KO (+240) vs Medina, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.4
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Claudio Puelles (-130) vs. Joaquim Silva (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
Lightweight
Claudio Puelles is a historical footnote because he won back-to-back fights via the rare kneebar submission early in his career. As we have seen his career develop, we’ve learned that he cannot strike very well, and he often crumbles under intense striking pressure. The 36-year-old Joaquim Silva, at times, has been an aggressive striker. His best bet is to pepper Puelles in this fight. Both of these combatants are very inconsistent on a fight-to-fight basis, so I do not like a bet here. If Silva stays standing, he will win, and he has never been submitted as a professional, so I like his chances.
FIGHT WINNER: Joaquim Silva
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Pass
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Tatiana Suarez (-440) vs. Amanda Lemos (+340)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Women’s Strawweight
Tatiana Suarez was most recently fighting on a pay-per-view card with a chance to lift the strap. She was a slight favorite versus Weili Zhang, and I liked her chances… and she got absolutely embarrassed in a five-round decision loss. The fight versus Zhang was her first bout in a year and a half, and the rust was quite apparent. Now she is flying under the radar on the prelims and has a chance to get back to what she is good at, outwrestling her opponent. Amanda Lemos will have a distinct striking advantage, but the 38-year-old is susceptible to getting taken down, which is a terrible flaw to have versus Suarez. Lemos has hands that can end fights, and there is no guarantee Suarez will ever again be the dominant fighter she was before her hiatus.
FIGHT WINNER: Tatiana Suarez
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Pass
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Jesus Aguilar (+164) vs. Luis Gurule (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Flyweight
Jesus Aguilar is an all-heart fighter with a 3-2 UFC record. He has been the underdog in four of his five fights in the organization, with two of those ending with his hand raised. He is good defensively when it comes to striking, but his takedown defense is a real problem. When facing a solid wrestler, he mounts virtually zero offense because he spends entirely too much time grounded. Luis Gurule is 0-1 in the UFC after getting flatlined by Ode Osborne as a -250 favorite. Prior to that fight, he was undefeated and perhaps a little too confident in his abilities. He has shown a willingness to prioritize takedowns in the past, and that is the best path to victory for him in this fight. But he is a bit green to earn my green, and Aguilar’s offensive limitations are keeping me from backing his side.
FIGHT WINNER: Luis Gurule
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Pass
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Zach Reese (-230) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+190)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-145)
Middleweight
Zach Reese is 9-2 as a professional fighter and 3-2 in the UFC. He has a long frame at 6’4” with a 77-inch reach. His potential is high because he has the ability to grapple despite having the height that favors more kickboxing. And his striking is good, with five career knockout victories. His overconfidence has perhaps been his biggest detriment to development thus far. He lost his debut via slam because he refused to let go of his opponent, and he marched right into the fire when he was underpowered versus Azamat Bekoev. Sedriques Dumas is a bit of a wildcard because he has shown some good things in the cage despite having just a 3-3 UFC record. He has pretty striking, but his ground game is limited. Like Reese, his frame is long at 6’2” with a 79-inch reach. That said, his inability to get up off his back is likely the difference in this fight. Additionally, he has had some outside-the-cage issues, which may have hindered his development over the past year. This fight was initially slated to take place in January, so both fighters definitely want a piece of each other.
FIGHT WINNER: Zach Reese
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Pass
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Alessandro Costa (-395) vs. Alden Coria (+310)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)
Flyweight
Alessandro Costa is 2-2 in the UFC, with only one fight (a decision loss to Steve Erceg) reaching the judges’ scorecards. The all-action fighter is 14-4 as a pro with five knockouts and six submissions. At just 5’4”, he is on the lower end for height in the flyweight division, but he makes up for it with a 67-inch reach that he uses well standing and on the ground. Alden Coria is stepping onto this fight card as a replacement opponent for Costa after Edgar Chairez was forced to withdraw. He is 10-3 as a professional with a substandard strength of schedule. I think that Costa will find the finish against an opponent who is not ready for the bright lights.
FIGHT WINNER: Alessandro Costa
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Alessandro Costa to Win Inside The Distance (+110) vs Coria, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Alice Pereira (-148) vs. Monsterrat Rendon (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Women’s Bantamweight
Alice Pereira is just 19 years old and making her UFC debut with a 5-0 record. She has not fought in any organization resembling credibility and did not need to fight in Contender Series before being given this opportunity. This means the UFC truly believes in her potential to be a star, or they are just that desperate for fresh blood in this division. Four of her wins have come inside the distance, but again, I cannot speak to the veracity of these wins because her opponents’ combined record is 15-15-1. Montserrat Rendon is a 6-1 Mexican fighter with a 1-1 record in the UFC. She is 36 years old and in desperate need to jumpstart her career, and maybe fighting an opponent young enough to be her daughter will do that. I cannot touch this one. But even that probably will not be enough, considering even in victory, she has not been all that impressive in the cage.
FIGHT WINNER: Alice Pereira
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Pass
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Rodrigo Sezinando (+170) vs. Daniil Donchenko (-205)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
Welterweight
This fight is the culmination of season 33 of The Ultimate Fighter. Prior to being casted on the TV show, both fighters bounced around the regional scene, fighting in low-level scraps. Donchenko is the more accomplished knockout artist, but given his strength of schedule, it is hard to give his 82% finish rate much credibility. Sezinando is a member of the esteemed Nova União fight team that has produced former UFC champions Jose Aldo and Renan Barao, so I trust his pedigree a bit more. We have seen tons of wild finals to The Ultimate Fighter, and given the storylines the TV show paints, it is hard to view this one objectively.
FIGHT WINNER: Rodrigo Sezinando
NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BET: Pass
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NOCHE UFC 3 BEST BETS RECAP:
Alessandro Costa to Win Inside The Distance (+110) vs Coria, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
Parlay- Jean Silva/Jared Gordon (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
Quang Le (+105) vs Luna, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
Dusko Todorovic to win via KO (+240) vs Medina, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.4
