Noche UFC 3 Predictions:
San Antonio hosts this week’s Noche UFC event, which traditionally has been a tribute to the Mexican fighting culture but has expanded to include other Latino and South American cultures in the tribute.
There are 14 scheduled bouts on this fight slate, one of which is a TUF final where debuting athletes will compete for their chance to be included in the UFC.
Several athletes competing on this card are Mexican or of Mexican heritage. There is another handful of fighters arriving from Central and South America to compete.
We have but two bouts featuring men weighing more than 170 pounds.
San Antonio will utilize the larger 30-foot octagon for this event. Needless to say, the Lone Star/Mexican crowd will show up to cheer on their brethren and jeer their foes.
Last week, I split positions as Mason Jones (-120) captured a great comeback win for us, but Ciao Borralho (-120) looked like a deer in the headlights as he fought in tepid, timid fashion and was dominated by Nassourdine Imavov.
Let’s knuckle up for Noche!
Jean Silva -240 vs. Diego Lopes +210
Featherweight (145 pounds) main event
This will be an incredible matchup of young, ascending UFC talent.
Brazilian banger Jean Silva, a member of the once untouchable ‘Fighting Nerds’ team from Brazil enters this fight with immense momentum.
Silva is lightning fast and has great feet, which allows him to shift, evade and maneuver fluently in the heat of battle. He has solid grappling and explosive, lightning-quick striking acumen, which is speed, precision and power-based.
Silva, ‘Lord’ as he is called in the cage, is an obtusely aggressive wrecking machine of a barking fighter who only steps forward in his zeal to annihilate any foe at his earliest possible opportunity.
Silva will utilize any opportunity outside the cage to bombard opponents with his trash talk and brazen attitude. He wins many of his battles before the bell for round one chimes, but in this adversary, he will be tested and tested to his core!
Silva has accrued a positive strike differential of .74 significant strikes per round and has realized five straight finishes in the UFC. The competition he has faced, he has demolished, and the acumen of the fighters he has demolished has grown over time in fight competence and ability.
Raging, aggressive, athletic, a fierce competitor with a brazen attitude, this is 10th-ranked featherweight Jean Silva.
Standing on the other side of the cage from Silva is second-ranked featherweight Diego Lopes.
Diego Lopes enters this fight as the more stoic, composed, patient mixed martial artist. His base is boxing/striking and BJJ, though in recent months, Lopes has been grinding on his wrestling development, which is testimony to his focus on becoming a complete world-class champion.
Though less vocal and bombastic than his opponent, Lopes’ method of attack is a bit more undercover. He chooses to conduct himself as a silent assassin.
Diego systematically breaks down adversaries by using unrelenting forward pressure to corner opponents, then bombards them with power striking combinations, knees and elbows included.
What makes this fight so fascinating is the dynamic clash of physical and mental approaches.
Silva will be a barking dog up until the bell for round one rings, then he’ll attack like a rabid animal.
Lopes will look like he is on vacation prior to this fight, for he is stoic and calm at all times. He will arrive as a focused warrior who will hold youth, height and reach advantages over his front-running foe.
Lopes has actually been in the cage with a far superior set of adversaries than Silva, and similar to some other ‘Fighting Nerd’ teammates recently, the feeling here is that Silva’s opening price of -250 (which is where he is priced currently) is giving the barking Brazilian well too much credit despite the string of success he has realized.
Yes, Silva may be the faster, quicker athlete in the cage, but the inner drive and fortitude of Lopes, his diligence and his experience, coupled with his size advantages, force me to believe that the barking Brazilian Silva is going to be muzzled come Saturday night.
Noche UFC 3 Best Bet: Diego Lopes +210
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds -160 Over
Alex Hernandez -135 vs. Diego Ferreira +115
Lightweight (155 pounds)
The 32-year-old Alex Hernandez just competed and dominated young Chase Hooper on the 16th of last month. Hernandez was an underdog going into that fight, and he finished Hooper, who many thought would dominate the ‘great ape’ with his grappling and cardio.
Hernandez is a fighter who can be very inconsistent. Early in fights, he shows quickness, strength, determination, power, and urgency. However, after the first round, Hernandez often slows, his striking becomes more telegraphed, and his lack of cardio often exposes him to counterattack as he struggles to maintain his pace throughout fifteen minutes.
His opponent, Diego Ferreira, is now 40 years old and has a depth of UFC experience. He is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu who has been in the cage with a highly pedigreed set of UFC adversaries.
Ferreira arrives off a loss to wrestling savant Grant Dawson in January, so he is the beneficiary of a full camp to prepare for this fight. He just discovered recently that it would be Hernandez on short notice off of his impressive win.
Ferreira has a few inches of reach advantage in this matchup, while Hernandez is the younger fighter.
Once this fight begins, I look for Ferreira to control the pace and utilize aggressive forward pressure to back Hernandez up and force him to work from his back foot.
Hernandez is best when he is moving forward and firing, so he’ll attempt to meet Ferreira in the center of the cage for a throwdown. This favors Ferriera not only for his power but also for his ability to weather an early storm and take this fight into the later rounds where his cardio (despite his age) will present him an advantage, as Hernandez begins to wilt.
There is recency bias affecting the line in this fight toward Hernandez, as I handicap Ferreira to be the more experienced, stronger, more developed and complete mixed martial artist.
Noche UFC 3 Best Bet: Diego Ferreira +115
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -125
Claudio Puelles -120 vs. Joaquim Silva +100
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Puelles is a grappling specialist from Peru now training in Florida because he understands that his lack of wrestling ability and his inadequate striking must be complementary to his fight arsenal as opposed to adversarial to it.
Puelles looks the part as he is going to be the taller, longer, younger athlete in the cage, but he must grab a hold of his opponent and ground him to realize any success, as he lacks a well-rounded array of mixed martial arts ability.
Brazilian Silva is a short, compact, powerfully built, well-rounded mixed martial artist. 2-2 in his last four fights, Silva’s two losses were against pedigreed, fully equipped opponents who were able to test him everywhere.
Silva’s biggest advantage in this battle is his well-rounded mixed martial arts base, coupled with his depth of experience against pedigreed, ranked adversaries.
In this fight, Puelles will pose a threat only in the clinch and on the mat. On the feet, he’ll get carved up like a Christmas goose as Silva is decorated with a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a Black Kurang in Muay Thai striking.
Finally, Puelles is solely a submission specialist and little more. Silva, who has been a professional fighter for fourteen years, has never been submitted.
Noche UFC 3 Best Bet Joaquim Silva +100
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -145
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access that at GambLou.com. Enjoy Noche and the hostilities surrounding that fight card!
