UFC Picks & Predictions Fight Night: O’Malley vs. Vera 2
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess has some strong takes on the UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera card and put pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.
UFC Odds | UFC Betting Splits | Lou Finocchiaro’s article
Last Week Bet Recap: 3-4 (+0.4 Units)
Last Week Pick’em Recap: 9-2
MAIN EVENT:
“Suga” Sean O’Malley (-265) vs Marlon “Chito” Vera (+215)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+124)
On August 15th, 2020 – Marlon “Chito” Vera derailed the Sean O’Malley hype train in the first round via TKO. The haters rejoiced and a promising career was canceled… Until it wasn’t. Since losing to Vera, O’Malley is 5-0 with 1 No Contest in the UFC. Four of those wins have come by way of knockout
After the first fight, O’Malley called it a fluke, Vera called it the truth. The finish was officially declared a TKO via “Elbows From Guard.” Those who didn’t see the fight would assume O’Malley landed on the ground after failing to stop a takedown, or eating a devastating head shot. But that is not the case. Vera landed a perfectly placed calf kick just below the right knee that caused O’Malley’s leg to go limp.
Analyzing the first fight is an interesting exercise because before the shot that compromised O’Malley, “Suga” was the one landing more leg kicks. He tried to buy time to recover but he couldn’t move well. Toward the end of the first round he saw an opportunity, rushed in, landed a few shots, then lost his footing on the exit. The opportunistic Vera pounced on him for the finish.
In O’Malley’s six subsequent trips to the octagon he has absorbed 101 leg kicks. None had the same effect as Vera’s seemingly innocuous shot.
Since finishing O’Malley, Vera has gone 5-2 versus mostly top 10 opposition. He scored decisive victories versus some big names. But digging deeper, three of his most lopsided victories were against worse for wear veterans on the wrong side of 35; Frankie Edgar, Dominick Cruz, and Pedro Munhoz.
“Suga” didn’t face top 10 opposition until his two most recent fights; a split decision victory over former title contender Petr Yan, and a KO to take the belt from Aljamain Sterling. When analyzing O’Malley’s UFC record, it’s not necessarily the names on the list that stick out, it’s the methods of victory. He has 6 KO’s in 9 octagon victories, 1 short of TJ Dillashaw’s UFC bantamweight record. Results that do not look like they’d match up with O’Malley’s ultra long and lean physique. But O’Malley has serious power, potentially the most in the division. He achieves this through crisp technique and leverage.
On the subject of power, “Chito” Vera is no slouch. His kicks are devastating, specifically when landing on his opponent’s heads (just ask UFC Hall of Famers Cruz and Edgar). But going against the grain of strikers with big power, Vera is an extremely slow starter. In his seven fights post beating O’Malley, there have been 21 first-round scorecards. Vera has won the first in the eyes of exactly four judges. That is just 19%. Moreover, before Vera landed the kick that ended O’Malley’s unbeaten streak, “Suga” was assuredly in the lead.
Many people will assume this fight favors O’Malley early and Vera late. I disagree with that sentiment. We haven’t seen O’Malley in late rounds often, but in his split decision win vs. Petr Yan, it was “Suga” who won the third round on all three judges’ scorecards. Vera was losing on the cards to Edgar and Cruz but was able to turn the fight around with devastating head kicks. If he waits for that opportunity to present itself vs O’Malley, the train will likely never leave the station. It’s hard to kick the head when you are 3 inches shorter than your opponent (see Vera’s loss to Cory Sandhagen).
The numbers also backup O’Malley. He is the more accurate striker, he is the more active striker, and he gets hit much less. Neither guy spends much time on the ground, and I’d be surprised if takedowns and submissions were a big part of either guy’s gameplan.
O’Malley is younger, longer, more powerful, more accurate, and more used to the big stage. I think he wins the fight. The only case I can make for Vera is he lands a lucky shot. But we already saw that happen vs O’Malley in 2020. Lightning doesn’t strike the same spot twice.
Winner Prediction: Sean O’Malley
Bet: Sean O’Malley (-265). Risk 2.65 Units to Win 1
+Parlay Leg (More to come)
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Co-Main Event:
Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (+170) vs Benoit Saint-Denis (-205)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-245) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+185)
Poirier is the fighter’s fighter of the UFC. He has fought all comers, he has won wars, he’s landed devastating KO’s, and he has sunk in slick submissions. He has worn the championship belt…
And he has lost the belt. He is an aging fighter. He was finished in two of his last three fights.
Saint-Denis is riding a five-fight UFC winning streak with five finishes in the first or second round.
Poirier has exclusively fought bona fide UFC studs for the past seven years. Nine of his last 11 fights have been against guys who have either fought for or won UFC Championships. Another one of those opponents, Michael Chandler, was the Bellator Lightweight Champion. Poirier’s strength of schedule is unmatched.
Who has Saint-Denis fought? No one who has sniffed a UFC title. But his wins have still been excellent. Most recently he stopped Matt Frevola who was on a three fight 1st round KO streak, finished Thiago Moises who has been a stalwart of the UFC’s lightweight division since 2018, and he submitted Ismael Bonfim as a +250 underdog. These opponents were not tomato cans.
If both these fighters were 30, this line would be much closer. But both fighters are not 30, Saint-Denis is 28, and Poirier has reached the pivotal MMA age of 35. He has been KO’d three times in his UFC career, including 8 months ago via head kick courtesy of Justin Gaethje. Since moving up to the lightweight division in 2015, Poirier has seen the judges score cards 3 times in 16 fights. The only time Saint-Denis has seen the scorecards was in his UFC debut.
I expect fireworks, and I expect both of these fighters to be leaving the octagon in a lot of pain.
Winner Prediction: Benoit Saint-Denis
Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (-115). Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (-135) vs Michael “Venom” Page (+114)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
If in-octagon antics are your thing, this is the fight for you. “Venom” Page is bringing one of the greatest Bellator legacies to the UFC. Finally UFC fans will get a chance to see his exciting and unconventional striking style in the octagon. The problem for Page is that Holland is also an exciting and unconventional striker.
The highlights both of these guys have produced are jaw dropping. They are two of the most devastating strikers in the world. Which leads me to believe we may be in for more movement than Muay Thai…
Both these guys want to land big shots and take advantage of opponents clumsily pressing forward. But which of these fighters wants to push the pace? Probably neither, which is why a bout featuring fighters with 34 combined finish victories is favored to go the distance. Expect a lengthy feeling out process, both of these fighters have been taller and had a reach advantage versus all of their opponents for the entirety of their MMA careers. (Both men are 6’3”, Kevin Holland has a 81” reach, Page’s reach measures in at 79”).
Holland has fought superior competition in his up-and-down UFC career. Since joining the UFC in 2018, Holland has entered the octagon 20 times. Turning pro in 2012, “Venom” has 23 MMA fights in his career. Holland is 31 and Page is 36. But considering Page’s much less daunting schedule, I do not consider age a major factor in this match up.
I think Page has more to prove in this spot than Holland who knows the UFC will put him on every and any fight card they can. Perhaps the most instructive past bout for handicapping how this fight will play out is looking back at Holland’s loss to Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Although not a perfect analog, Michael Venom Page also has a point fighting karate style. His strikes are cleaner, and I think he can outpoint Holland.
Winner Prediction: Michael “Venom” Page
Bet: PASS
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Gilbert “Durinho” Burns (+140) vs Jack Della Maddalena (-166)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)
A year ago, Maddalena was one of the hottest prospects on the UFC welterweight roster. But his star has fizzled in the last 8 months on the back of two split decision victories where fans were left wanting much more. In July of 2023 he fought late replacement Basel Hafez as a -575 favorite and was extremely lucky to get out of there with his hand raised. Two months later he took on Kevin Holland and again saw the judges opinion’s divided as his victory was announced.
It may seem like this is a get right spot for “JDM” as the UFC has given him an opponent ten years his elder and coming off a lopsided loss. But I do not think it’s safe to count out “Durinho.” His last performance was on three weeks notice, and took place less than a month after his decisive victory over Jorge Masvidal. Also that opponent was Belal Muhammad, a fighter who is at the top of the list for a title shot and riding the second-longest winning streak in the division.
With a full camp I expect to see a much better performance out of Burns. I also think he will have a clear advantage if he manages to get this fight to the mat. JDM’s standup is very good, and he has no problem getting his hands on his opponents. But he does take a lot of shots, and I’m not sure he has faced anyone with a ground game that approaches what he will see from “Durinho.”
Winner Prediction: Gilbert Burns
Bet: Gilbert Burns (+140), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
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Petr “No Mercy” Yan (-125) vs Song “Kung Fu Kid” Yadong
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Yan is riding a 3 fight losing streak vs quite possibly the toughest gauntlet anyone in the UFC has faced in recent years. First he lost a split decision to then Bantamweight Champion Aljamain Sterling. Then he lost a controversial split decision to current Bantamweight Champion Sean O’Malley. And most recently he lost a decision to the presumed next Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili.
Yadong has improved immensely in his last few trips to the octagon. After being stopped by Cory Sandhagen, he dominated Ricky Simon as an underdog, and took care of business as a big favorite versus Chris Gutierrez.
But this will be his toughest test yet. Yan has been the interim champion and this fight is his chance to prove he still belongs in the conversation for another shot. Yan has crisper boxing than anyone Yadong has faced, and he is no slouch as a wrestler either. I do not see a clear path for Yadong to have his hand raised.
Winner Prediction: Petr Yan
Bet: Petr Yan (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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Curtis “Razor” Blaydes (-110) vs Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida (-110)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Blaydes only loses to power punchers. He has a 17-4 record with his four losses coming at the hands of Sergey Pavlovich, Derrick Lewis, and Francis Ngannou x2 (power punchers).
Almeida is not a power puncher. He is a wrestler and jiu-jitsu specialist who has had an absurdly easy path to 6-0 in the UFC given his specific skill set. He is also undersized for a heavyweight, having taken his first UFC bout at light heavyweight, and an additional fight at a catchweight of 220 pounds. At his last weigh in he came in at 236, and the lack of size showed as he was unable to submit Lewis despite having ground control for 21:10 of the 25:00 minute fight.
Blaydes is a Junior College national champion wrestler. He has been taken down four times in 17 UFC bouts. Until this point, Almeida has faced hand picked opponents that would allow his skill set to shine. This is where the hype train ends. He is not good on the feet, and for the first time in his career, his opponent will be trying to test his takedown defense.
Winner Prediction: Curtis Blaydes
Bet: Curtis Blaydes (-110), Risk 1.1 to Win 1
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Katlyn “Blonde Fighter” Cerminara (+170) vs Maycee “The Future” Barber (-205)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-360) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+260)
Barber entered the UFC with a clean record and high expectations. She hit the ground running with three knockout victories in a division where they are rare. But then she was quickly humbled losing back to back decisions versus fighters who were able to study her tendencies. Since then, she has reeled off 5 victories in a row. She’s edging towards title bout consideration, and an impressive performance at UFC 299 could get her over the hump.
Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) has been out of the octagon since 2022. She is a UFC stalwart going 11-5 in 16 trips into the cage. She likes to fight at range and employ kickboxing to control fights. Barber has a habit of getting hit a little bit too much, especially when she gets lazy with takedown attempts.
That said, I feel like the ever confident and only getting better Barber is well equipped to win, especially if she manages to get “Blonde Fighter” on the ground.
Winner: Maycee Barber
Bet: Pass
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Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot (-455) vs Rafael dos Anjos (+350)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Gamrot is a machine. He seemingly never gets tired in the octagon and overwhelms opponents with activity. He put the division on notice when he out-wrestled Arman Tsarukyan and probably would have had a title shot by now if he didn’t stumble vs Beniel Dariush in Abu Dhabi. RDA used to be a machine as well, but at age 39 he has slowed down considerably. Last time out, Vincente Luque was able to beat RDA simply through takedowns and control, and “Gamer” is much more skilled in this department. The price is hard to swallow but I have trouble making the case for RDA to get his hand raised.
Winner: Mateusz Gamrot
Bet: +Parlay leg (More to come)
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Kyler “The Matrix” Phillips (-225) vs Pedro “The Young Punisher” Munhoz (+185)
Another matchup between a guy on the back nine of his career in Munhoz versus someone who may not have reached their physical peak yet in Phillips. Munhoz began his UFC career in 2014, Phillips graduated high school in 2013. Fighters nearly a decade younger than their opponent have a strong record of success in the UFC. And there are signs that Munhoz may be slowing down, he is 2-5 in his last 7 fights. But there are also questions to be asked about Phillips’s UFC record. The competition he has faced has been middling at best. In his last 3 fights, the scorecards have generally not gone his way in the third round (despite going 2-1 in those fights). But versus Munhoz, you are signing up for the full 15 minutes. Phillips leans on his grappling to control fights, and versus Munhoz that is much easier said than done.
Fight Winner: Pedro Munhoz
Bet: Pedro Munhoz via Decision (+300), Risk 0.5 Units to win 1.5
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Philipe “Monstro” Lins (-102) vs Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba (-122)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+110) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-140)
Lins began his UFC career as a heavyweight after having success in that class in PFL. He quickly realized the level of competition in the UFC is much stronger, and after two defeats he moved back down to Light Heavyweight. Since joining the UFC 205 pounders, Lins is 3-0, with two of those victories coming as the underdog.
Cutelaba is yet to find an opponent he isn’t willing to all out attack for the first round knockout. In a way his business IQ is higher than his fight IQ. Exciting fights keep you on fight cards, but they can also shorten your career. Cutelaba has been finished 7 times in 15 UFC fights. Lins is a good striker, but Cutelaba won’t care, he has thrown caution to the wind versus much better.
Lins has matured as a fighter as his career has advanced. Cutelaba has been following the same formula since day 1.
Winner Prediction: Philipe Lins
Bet: Pass
Michel “Dimolidor” Pereira (-148) vs Michal “Hussar” Oleksiejczuk (+124)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+154)
Both fighters are extremely entertaining in the octagon albeit in vastly different ways. Pereira loves to move around in the cage, so much so that it caused him to fade late in fights earlier in his career. “Hussar” loves pushing the action and tries to make sure fights are as short as possible. Although he has a pair of UFC knockouts, Pereira is much more about speed than power. Michael O puts power first.
This is a high variance fight where either guy could finish the other early. But a decision is also squarely on the table. If it does go long, that is likely going to play into Pereira’s favor.
Winner Prediction: Michel Pereira
Bet: Pass
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Robelis “The Big Boy” Despaigne (-345) vs Josh Parisian (+250)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+230) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-315)
Parisian is 15-7 overall and has gone 2-4 in the UFC. He has faced one fighter in the UFC with more than three trips into the octagon. The two fighters he has beaten in the UFC were never seen in the organization again. The UFC sees Parisian as a litmus test for new fighters. Survive Parisian and advance.
Despaigne is a Cuban Taekwondo black belt who won a bronze medal in the 2012 Summer Olympics. He is 6’7” tall and has an astounding 87 inch reach. He has fought absolutely no one in achieving his 4-0 MMA record. One of his opponents was 1-0 at the time of the fight, but his other three opponents were 0-0. Complete novices, which explains why he has four first round KOs, three of which came in under 12 seconds.
That said, a gigantic taekwondo master in the UFC heavyweight division is an interesting proposition. Can he defend a takedown? Can he wrestle? I am assuming that is going to be exactly what Josh Parisian wants to test. But that doesn’t mean Parisian has an easy path to victory. Remember Cyril Gane, another elite striker with little grappling experience who had no problem reaching the top of the division? Not to mention Josh Parisian’s striking defense is sub par for the division.
Winner Prediction: Robelis Despaigne
Bet: Parlay: O’Malley/Gamrot/Despaigne (+116), Risk 1 Unit to win 1.16
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CJ Vergara (+425) vs Asu “Zulfikar” Almabayev (-575)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)
Vergara is 3-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming after he missed weight. But these odds indicate that weight miss or not, the UFC veteran is going to have his hands full with relative UFC newcomer in Almabayev. “Zulfikar” is 1-0 in the organization by way of 2nd round rear naked choke versus Ode Osbourne. Half of Almayev’s 18 professional wins have come by way of submission which doesn’t bode well for Vergara who has been submitted in two out of his four professional defeats. Additionally Almabayev’s pre-UFC strength of schedule is solid, having faced multiple fighters who have been, or currently are in the UFC.
Winner Prediction: Asu Almabayev
Bet: Pass
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Joanne “Jojo” Wood (+195) vs Maryna “Iron Lady” Moroz (-238)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
By no means are Wood and Moroz stars in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division, but they do deserve a lot of credit. Wood has lasted 16 fights in the octagon, and Moroz will be stepping into the cage for her 12th appearance. They are familiar names and have been around long enough to show plenty of good and bad in their fights. What jumps off the page is that 63% of Wood’s UFC losses have come by way of submission, while a third of Moroz’s UFC victories have come from receiving the tap. Neither fighter has been in particularly good form lately with Moroz losing her last two outings and Wood only winning one in her last four. That said both women need to make a statement and I believe there is a higher chance we see a finish in this fight than the odds indicate.
Fight Winner: Maryna Moroz
Bet: Pass
Best Bets Recap:
Sean O’Malley (-265). Risk 2.65 Units to Win 1
Saint-Denis/Poirier under 2.5 Rounds (-115). Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
Gilbert Burns (+140), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
Petr Yan (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
Curtis Blaydes (-110), Risk 1.1 to Win 1
Pedro Munhoz via Decision (+300), Risk 0.5 Units to win 1.5
Parlay: O’Malley/Gamrot/Despaigne (+116), Risk 1 Unit to win 1.16
