UFC 304 Predictions:
Welcome to our UFC 304 predictions! Manchester, England, is the location for this week’s UFC 304 Edwards vs. Muhammad PPV event. The fourteen-fight production begins with early prelims on Saturday at 3:15 p.m. PT, prelims start at 5 p.m. PT, and then the main card drops at 7 p.m. PT. These fights transpire in the wee hours of Sunday morning in Jolly Ol’ England, so the crowd should be in ‘rare’ form for these bouts, ten of which feature English combatants. Let’s take a look at our UFC 304 best bets.
Last week, two releases split; however, the parlay paid +151, so digital results for UFC best bets stand 17-15 +5.58u to date.
Leon Edwards (champion) -250 vs. Belal Muhammad +210
Welterweight (170 pounds) Championship
Since these two fought to a no-contest in March 2021, each has performed brilliantly, defeating every challenger faced.
For Muhammad, unrelenting, forward-pressure wrestling is his fight foundation, and he complements that with extreme mental toughness, sheer determination, an improved striking/licking offense, and simple belief.
Since these two first tussled, Muhammad has improved his striking, but as opposed to piecing opponents up, he’s looking to strike only long enough to steal the opponent’s soul by forcing them to battle tooth and nail, second by second and inch by inch for a full twenty-five.
Muhammad believes that his calculated aggressiveness early in the fight will eventually allow him to clasp a hold of them and choke them out with a submission late in the fight.
Champion Edwards will be defending his belt at home. The southpaw is the younger man, the taller man and he’ll also hold reach advantages over Muhammad. Edwards has the ability to thrive anywhere a fight evolves, be it wrestling, grappling, striking, or kicking. His dexterity, his physical advantages, and the people he has competed against all force me to regard Edwards as the legitimate favorite in this fight.
On Muhammad’s side, it’s his focus, his unrelenting nature, and the fact he has been in the cage against Leon already. Muhammad understands exactly what he must do to accomplish this upset, and it begins and ends with sucking the cardio out of the champion and usurping his confidence.
What is intriguing is that almost every other English fighter on this slate is being bet aggressively by the betting public; however, in this main event, Edwards’s price has only moved slightly.
Current lines show respect for Muhammad, yet when I handicap the fight, it all comes down to whether Muhammad forces Edwards to succumb. That’s his path to the championship.
UFC Best Bet: At current pricing, I’ll take Muhammad +210 or better*.
*It won’t hurt to be patient and watch this line because a better price may arise.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -215
Tom Aspinall (champion) -355 vs. Curtis Blaydes +290
Heavyweight (265 pounds) Interim Championship
This is a rematch of a July 2022 fight. In it, Aspinall closed at a price of -140 over Blaydes after opening as a dead pick ’em.
Aspinall was injured early in the fight, which began the process of each man earning their way right back to a title shot. It just so happens that the location is Manchester. On Saturday, these two settle who will be the next heavyweight champion after Jon Jones defeats Stipe Miocic, then rides off into the sunset.
Blaydes’ resume is solid. He’s a world-class wrestling talent who has developed a better-than-average power-based strike arsenal into his offense, and that striking comes complete with kicks. His cardio is a strength; he is unbelievably strong, determined, and confident, yet not overly agile or nimble.
Blaydes has competed against the heavyweight elite over several years and surely sees this as his best opportunity to be crowned, but does that mean he’ll win the fight?
Curtis Blaydes has a single shortcoming—a glaring one. Unfortunately, Blaydes has the proverbial glass jaw. This is not to say he can’t take a punch or battle toe-to-toe, but since 2018, his three losses were all to worthy, power-based, legitimate heavyweight talents who, in exchange, were able to blast Blaydes and drop him cheek-first onto the floor.
This is the heavyweight division of the UFC, and trying to hide the inability to take one flush on the face is no secret, especially when the athlete is young, driven, and confident and does not believe he can be stopped despite past results.
I believe Blaydes is playing an extremely dangerous game against this Aspinall kid. I’ll also mention that Blaydes called this fight out.
For Aspinall, it’s simple. He’s smashed each opponent in front of him since these two first fought. Now he gets the opportunity to correct the blemish on his record that was put there after an injury in a fight that lasted 15 seconds.
Aspinall is slightly younger than Blaydes. He’ll be taller, more athletic and the faster man in the cage. Both of these men fight with a full arsenal of skill so it will be interesting to determine where this fight goes and who takes it there.
Blaydes must execute enough forward pressure to put Aspinall on the defensive and take this fight right to him. This strategy gives him his best chance to win. Likely, Aspinall’s agility, speed and precision striking will sooner than later force the more methodical Blaydes into attempting to wrestle. When that transition happens, and I believe it will, this fight will begin to open up like an aged Cabernet. If Blaydes is forced to apply wrestling, he leaves himself exposed to Aspinall’s forte—straight knees, power uppercuts, and leveraged crosses as he rushes inside to engage.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Under -166
Modestus Bukauskas -155 vs. Marcin Prachnio +135
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
These two fighters will each step into the cage on Saturday in must-win situations.
Bukauskas won his first two UFC fights before Vitor Petrino finished him in the second round last November. He is a durable, willing striking based fighter with decent wrestling, but his strike defense needs improvement.
Prachnio is the older fighter at 36, but he’s just as desperate for a win as Bukauskas, which enhances the volatility of this fight. Prachnio is 2-2 in the UFC since 2022. He has competed against worthy competition, and he enters this one off a win.
In my judgment, Prachnio is the more complete striker. He has more innate power than Bukauskas, and he’s been against a higher degree of pedigreed opponents. For that reason, I‘ll declare him a live underdog in a fight that is critical to each man.
UFC Best Bet: Prachnio +135
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning with more UFC best bets as the fights are in England. Access it at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities.
