UFC 307 Predictions:
Salt Lake City is the location for this week’s UFC 307 Pereira vs. Roundtree production.
Preliminary action begins at 3 p.m. PT, with the main card kicking off at 7 p.m. PT.
This fight card is steeped with experienced veteran athletes as thirteen of the twenty-two fighters scheduled to compete on this card are aged 36 or older.
The average age of the fighters in the first three bouts of the day is 38 years old. There are seven fights with men weighing 170 pounds and above, so the odds that we’ll have fights finishing inside the distance are high.
Last week, I dropped a parlay attempt with the French pairing of Imavov to Saint-Denis. Digital results for 2024: 22-19 +8.15u.
Let’s take a look at my UFC 307 best bets!
Alex Pereira -450 vs. Khalil Roundtree +385
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds) Title
Champion Pereira is the UFC’s new darling, as in true ‘Shama warrior’ fashion, he takes fights anytime, anywhere and against any opponent.
The UFC needed a strong headliner to help prop up the ladies bantamweight title fight for this event. They went directly to Pereira, as he is as popular with fight fans for being lethal inside the cage.
Since July of 2022, Pereira has earned six devastating finishes. He also holds a decision victory over former champion Jan Blachowicz—proof that this monster can compete for a full 25 minutes and against absolute elite-level light heavyweight competition.
In Roundtree, we get the eighth-ranked fighter in the division who is tough, durable, profusely powerful with his elbows/fists, and committed to an aggressive dose of leg-bludgeoning kicks.
Roundtree’s level of competition wanes compared to the elite brand of mixed martial artists that Pereira has slayed. This step up in competition is substantial.
Roundtree will be giving away size to Pereira, who will be three inches taller than his opponent in the cage. He will also hold a five-inch reach advantage in what most fight pundits agree will be a stand-up battle.
Height and reach are tangible advantages for fighters involved in stand-up affairs, so there is no real quandary that Pereira came -450 at the opening for this fight.
This fight seems like a throwback to a time when they would give the greatest, Muhammad Ali, an opponent like Oscar Bonavena who was rough, tough and captured the public’s imagination with the fairy tale that he had a legitimate chance to win the title, only to have Ali shred them when the fight actually transpired.
Roundtree has intelligence, power, and a forceful will, so we know he’s coming into this battle to hurl Sunday shots at the champion with the intent of putting him to sleep. However, just like Bonavena and company were little match for Ali, I handicap Roundtree to put up a good fight for a couple of rounds before the diversity of power strikes/kicks he absorbs becomes too much for him to endure.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -145
Raquel Pennington -170 vs. Julianna Peña +145
Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title
Peña is the former champion who defeated the great Amanda Nunes, only to be decimated by her in the rematch which took place early in 2022. That also happened to be the last time Peña competed in the octagon.
Peña’s smart, articulate and athletic. A blue belt in BJJ, Peña backs up her modest grappling ability with a striker’s flair, as she is founded with Muay Thai striking and boxing expertise.
In Rocky Pennington, we have the consummate grinder/grappler/wrestler. Pennington, a purple belt in BJJ, earned the title in a dynamic win over Mayra Bueno Silva in January of this year after defeating her previous five opponents in a similar grinding fashion.
Once this fight begins, it will be Peña who will attempt to use athletic movement and angles to try to paint Pennington with punches upon her attempts to enter into the pocket so she may unleash a damaging strike upon the Champion.
As is usually the case for the wrestler/grappler, forceful, constant forward pressure is the key to this fight for Pennington. She must eliminate Peña’s striking distance, clasp ahold of her, and then force her into competing in a wrestling match where she is not on the same level as the champion.
Standing, Peña will hold the advantage in this championship fight. In the clinch, pressed against the fence and groveling on the mat is where Pennington needs to take this fight for her to hold advantage.
“Styles make fights,” as Angelo Dundee would say. In this championship fight, where the bout takes place will be indicative of who is in control of this fight.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -260
Ryan Spann -295 vs. Ovince Saint Preux +250
Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)
The 6-foot-5, 33-year-old Spann is a front-running striker with power. Spann’s first six minutes are as forceful and dangerous as one may face in the light heavyweight division. However, after the first round or so, Spann’s cardio and abilities seem to wane dynamically.
Spann’s power, cardio, and, more importantly, his confidence all really wane after the first round of his fights. I think his obstacles are mental, for the man is tall, long, and violently-natured.
In Saint Preux, we have an athlete who, at age 41, seems to be taken too lightly for the level of fighting he is still able to put forth in the octagon.
Saint Preux is more well-rounded as a fighter. His striking is better than average, and his forward-pressing wrestling/grappling is elite. In his last bout, Saint Preux defeated a teammate of Spann’s, Kennedy Nzechukwu, in an oh-so-close decision.
Spann’s early force will have to be dealt with appropriately by Saint Preux, who must force this fight into the second round and beyond to have his constant forward pressure begin to sap the will from Spann.
Saint Preux has proven to me that he still has the desire, ability and will to compete in the UFC, while Ryan Spann will need to show out on this opponent or potentially face being cut from the organization.
Each fighter has much to prove here Saturday night, and it’s my position that Saint Preux is getting somewhat disrespected by the pricing of this bout.
UFC 307 Best Bet: Saint Preux +250
.5 unit investment
Total in this fight: 1.5 -135 Over
UFC 307 Best Bet: Lean Over
Friday mid-day, my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com. Thank You for reading, and enjoy the fights!
