UFC 311 Predictions Makhachev vs. Moicano:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 311 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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ALL ODDS VIA DRAFTKINGS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
Islam Makhachev (-1200) vs Renato Moicano (+750)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-210)
Islam Makhachev has lived up to the hype. He came into the UFC as the heir apparent to Khabib Nurmagomedov. After a bad KO loss early in his UFC career, he recovered and has left no doubts about his status at the top of the lightweight division. He is 26-1 as a pro, 15-1 in the UFC, and has a 14-fight win streak, with six of his last seven victories coming inside the distance.
Like his coach and friend Khabib, Islam’s grappling is his best asset. He has a tremendous squeeze and is the owner of seven career submission victories in the UFC. But he is not just a grappler. His striking has eclipsed Khabib’s, and he is a legit knockout threat. Obviously, the circumstances of this card change some things. His original opponent, Arman Tsarukyan pulled out of the fight on Friday, and now he is defending his lightweight belt versus the surging Renato Moicano. Stylistically, there are some surface-level similarities between Tsarukyan and Moicano. However, the original opponent has better striking power and is much more of a wrestler who wins rounds through control, compared to Moicano, who is much more eager to look for the finish from top position.
Renato Moicano is the owner of a four-fight win streak and has had his hand raised in six of his last seven bouts. Three of his last four victories have come via finish, and he has been the underdog in the last two. Moicano lands nearly two more significant strikes per minute than Makhachev, but most of these strikes come from ground position. Additionally he gets hit with over two more significant strikes per minute than the champ. At age 35, he is a year and a half older than Makhachev. He has a two-inch reach advantage while being one inch taller than his opponent at 5 ’11.
Makhachev has to be much more aware of the submission threat in this new matchup. He was already planning on grappling because that is his game plan in virtually every fight. Additionally, people have questioned Makhachev’s gas tank in the past,. I don’t see that being a factor, considering Moicano was originally scheduled to fight a three-round fight instead of the championship bout five. I believe that Moicano will have chances to attempt submissions and maybe even get close, but I don’t think he will get the finish.
FIGHT WINNER: Islam Makhachev
UFC 311 BEST BET: Pass
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Merab Dvalishvili (+210) vs Umar Nurmagomedov (-258)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+220)
If Islam Makhachev is the spiritual successor to Khabib Nurmagomedov, his cousin Umar is his literal successor, albeit at a 20-pound lighter weight class. The younger Nurmagomedov is undefeated as a professional at 18-0 and 6-0 in the UFC, with three finishes inside the distance. He has been a massive favorite in all of his fights, with his lowest price -360 vs Cory Sandhagen last August in Abu Dhabi. He won that fight via unanimous decision, proving he has the gas tank to go five full rounds and look good doing it.
Like most fighters in his camp, he is an excellent wrestler with dominant top control. He has submissions in his bag but has the ability to surprise opponents with his striking. He has outstruck every opponent he has faced and landed at least one takedown in every fight that has made it out of the first round. He has never been taken down in the Octagon. Despite having the grappler reputation, he has landed 63% of his significant strikes attempted in his UFC career, including 52% vs. the rangy Cory Sandhagen.
Merab Dvalishvili won the UFC Bantamweight belt the hard way. He began his UFC career 0-2, but turned a corner in a major way and is currently riding an 11-fight winning streak. He has knocked off former champs and championship contenders in Marlon Moraes, Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo, and Sean O’Malley. His strength of wins in this division is truly unmatched. When you put the names he fought next to the guys Umar has seen, the contrast is quite stark. Merab’s nickname is “The Machine” because he keeps a brutal pace that absolutely no one in the division has been able to match. He has landed 10+ takedowns in four UFC fights and has landed multiple in every fight outside of his bout with Jose Aldo, who, despite not getting taken down, spent much of the fight defending takedowns with his back to the cage. In his UFC career, Dvalishvili averages 6.09 takedowns landed per 15 minutes in the cage.
Neither one of these fighters gets hit often because they spend so much time in dominant grappling position. Umar is the more accurate striker, but again, he has not necessarily fought opponents with excellent defense. I believe this fight is closer than the odds indicate, but I do think there is slight finish potential, and a split decision could come into play.
FIGHT WINNER: Umar Nurmagomedov
UFC 311 BEST BET: Dvalishvili/Nurmagomedov Fight Not to be Won via Unanimous Decision (+110), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Jiri Prochazka (+105) vs Jamahal Hill (-125)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
Both men in this fight are former light heavyweight belt holders, and both have been knocked out by the current champion, Alex Pereira. Jiri Prochazka’s game has much more emphasis on the “mixed” part of mixed martial arts. He has knockout power and also owns a submission win versus Glover Teixeira, which occurred in a title bout. Prochazka embodies the warrior spirit, at times to his own detriment. He is the epitome of willing to take a punch to land one, which gets a bit dicey when facing championship-level competition. He lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute while receiving 5.59. That said, he only has two losses in the UFC, both coming to Alex Pereira, and he has finished the likes of Volkan Oezdemir, Dominick Reyes, Glover Teixeira, and Aleksandar Rakic. Overall, he is 30-5-1 as a pro, with only one fight ever reaching a decision. He has made it past round 2 once in his UFC career and hasn’t been beyond that since a fight in Rizin in 2016.
Jamahal Hill is the much cleaner striker. He lands 7.18 significant strikes per minute while only receiving 3.51. Hill is 12-2 as a professional and 6-2 in the UFC. His losses came via arm injury in a bout versus Paul Craig and a KO loss to Alex Pereira at UFC 300. He has the well-earned reputation of a power puncher, but I think his one-punch power is a bit overrated. Generally, he finds the KO through attrition. Four of his UFC wins have come via KO, with the additional two coming via decision. Two opponents succeeded in taking Hill down, but on both occasions, those fighters lost. I don’t think Hill will want to find Prochazka on top of him because his submission threats are legitimate.
This will be a high-octane fight from the onset. Prochazka’s chin will be tested early. If he can withstand the power, he will have a very good shot at getting this fight where he wants it—an all-out brawl. According to the DraftKings betting splits, Prochazka has 64% of the bets and 65% of the money, which makes sense because he is the vastly more popular fighter.
FIGHT WINNER: Jiri Prochazka
UFC 311 BEST BET: Jiri Prochazka (+105) vs Jamahal Hill, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
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Jailton Almeida (-485) vs Serghei Spivac (+370)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Jailton Almeida is an anomaly in the heavyweight division. He has not landed a jab in the course of eight UFC fights. He is 7-1 in the organization with a recent first-round submission over Alexandr Romanov. The blemish on his record came when he faced elite wrestler Curtis Blaydes, who was able to remind him the UFC isn’t a wrestling match and he lost via KO. But landing 6.85 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC octagon is absolutely insane for a heavyweight. He only lands 2.46 significant strikes per minute, but he spends virtually no time on his feet, and at the beginning of each round, he is immediately searching for the takedown.
Serghei Spivac came in at 233 pounds on Friday, the lowest weight of his UFC career. He is ready to wrestle, and it makes sense because the Moldovan has a background in grappling. He is 8-4 in the UFC, with his most recent two losses being “good” to Tom Aspinall and Cyril Gane. In his last fight, he was able to get revenge against Marcin Tybura, a fighter who bested him early in his career. Overall, he is 17-4 as an MMA pro with seven knockouts and eight wins via submission
This price is way out of whack. Spivac is a veteran opponent with a more varied skillset than Almeida. Almeida is devastating with top control, but I am not sure that will be easy to achieve.
FIGHT WINNER: Serghei Spivac
UFC 311 BEST BET: Serghei Spivac (+370) vs Jailton Almeida, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.7
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Kevin Holland (+102) vs Reinier de Ridder (-122)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
This line is absolutely wild to me. Reinier de Ridder is a former ONE champion, but he lost the belt before moving to the UFC. He is a grappling specialist who was able to submit Gerald Meerschaert in the third round of his UFC debut. That said, Meerschaert was able to land 55% of his significant strikes. His career number in 22 UFC fights is 45%. That is not a good omen, considering Kevin Holland is a much better striker. Additionally, Kevin Holland is not totally lost on the ground. H has been submitted twice in 23 UFC bouts, one of which came early in his UFC career, and the other was to Khamzat Chimaev after a totally bonkers matchmaking process that took place the day of weigh-ins due to Chimaev missing weight.
I think RDR can be proud of his achievements outside the UFC, but I do not think Kevin Holland is the right opponent for him to continue his trajectory. He still needs more lower-level UFC competition, and this is too big of a swing too soon.
FIGHT WINNER: Kevin Holland
UFC 311 BEST BET: Kevin Holland (+102) vs Reinier de Ridder, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.02
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Payton Talbott (-1050) vs Raoni Barcelos (+675)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
Payton Talbott is one of the most promising young stars in a loaded bantamweight division. He is 9-0 as a pro and 3-0 in the UFC with three finishes. His power is different, and his athleticism is quite notable, not just due to his ability to explode but also his balance and flexibility. At 26 years old, he has a bright future. Raoni Barcelos is now 37 years old and far past his prime. He is 7-4 in the UFC. Though he’s coming off a win, Barcelos has lost four of his last six fights since 2021. In weigh-ins and press events, he presented as a game and veteran fighter, but I don’t think he has enough in the tank to match what Talbott will throw at him.
FIGHT WINNER: Payton Talbott
UFC 311 BEST BET: Payton Talbott win via KO vs. Barcelos (-185), Risk 1.85 Units to Win 1
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Zachary Reese (+160) | Vs Azamat Bekoev (-192)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+145)
Zachary Reese is an exciting prospect who is 8-1 and 2-1 in the UFC. He was hyped up when entering the UFC but lost via slam when he got overzealous grappling Cody Brundage. He rebounded with a first-round knockout versus Julian Marquez and followed that up with a decision win versus Jose Medina. Azamat Bekoev is making his UFC debut after winning and defending the LFA middleweight championship. He is also a veteran of the top Russian MMA organization, LFA. In his eighteen career victories he has six wins via knockout and eight via submission. Overall, I think it is too early to back Bekoev’s reputation with my money.
FIGHT WINNER: Azamat Bekoev
UFC 311 BEST BET: Pass
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Bogdon Guskov (-395) vs Billy Elekana (+310)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-130)
Bogdon Guskov is a fighter to watch in 2025. He is 2-1 in the UFC, but his loss came in a short-notice scrap versus Volkan Oezdemir. Since then, he has knocked out Zac Pauga and Ryan Spann as the underdog in both fights. He has the potential to make noise in a division looking for fresh faces, but he needs to take care of business versus his less experienced opponent here. Billy Elekana is a replacement opponent for Guskov after Johnny Walker withdrew. Elekana is just 7-1 but does have PFL experience, so his track record isn’t totally fraudulent. But this is too much, too soon. He has never been stopped. I have a feeling that trend changes here.
FIGHT WINNER: Bogdan Guskov
UFC 311 BET: Parlay piece, see below
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Grant Dawson (-245) vs Diego Ferreira (+200)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Grant Dawson is a grappler who overwhelms his opponents with his all-out ground attack. He is 10-1-1 in the UFC, with his lone loss coming to Bobby Green via KO. He won his last fight via ground-and-pound knockout versus Rafa Garcia, which reinvigorated his momentum after a ho-hum decision victory versus Joe Solecki. Trying to lay and pray on Diego Ferreira can be very dangerous as his veteran opponent is no stranger to come-from-behind victories. Energy management will be key in this bout. Diego Fereira is having a late-career resurgence at 40 years old. In his last fight, he was a +380 underdog versus Mateusz Rebecki, but after being dismantled for two rounds, he was able to find the KO finish late in Round 3. I believe Grant Dawson is too experienced and too well-trained to overextend in this matchup.
FIGHT WINNER: Grant Dawson
UFC 311 BEST BET: Parlay piece, see below
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Ailin Perez (+200) vs Karol Rosa (-245)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-500) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+340)
Ailin Perez is 4-0 in the UFC as a betting favorite and 0-1 as an underdog. However, that underdog loss came in her UFC debut. She has looked better each time she has entered the cage, culminating with her triangle choke finish in her last fight. But she has not fought anyone with the pedigree of Karol Rosa. Rosa is a 10-fight UFC veteran with a 7-3 record in the organization. All 10 of her fights in the UFC have made it to the judges’ scorecards. Rosa is the much more eager striker, landing 6.49 significant strikes per minute, while Perez is at just 2.84. The biggest difference in their styles is grappling. Perez lands 5.36 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage and she will definitely be testing Rosa’s 68% takedown defense rate. Call it momentum betting or anything you want, but I do believe Perez is currently peaking while Rosa is at the same level she has been at in years. Additionally, Rosa has lost as a big favorite in the past. Her first UFC loss came to Sara McMann as a -250 favorite. In that fight, McMann was able to land four takedowns and secure 10:27 minutes of control time.
FIGHT WINNER: Ailin Perez
UFC 311 BEST BET: Ailin Perez (+200) vs Karol Rosa, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2
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Rinya Nakamura (-625) vs Muin Gafurov (+455)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Rinya Nakamura is the next Japanese phenom to storm the UFC’s lower weight classes. The bantamweight is 3-0 in the UFC, employing his high-level wrestling background to control opponents. His last two victories have come via decision, but in his 9-0 career, he has five knockouts and one submission victory. In his UFC and Road to UFC career, he has landed 90% of his takedown attempts and has only received 1.38 significant strikes per minute. Muin Gafurov is 1-2 in the UFC and is in a win-or-go-home scenario. I am not sure he has the chops to match up with Nakamura, who is a more accurate striker, has better striking defense, and will be the more capable grappler.
FIGHT WINNER: Rinya Nakamura
UFC 311 BEST BET: Pass
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Ricky Turcios (+225) vs Benardo Sopaj (-278)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Ricky Turcios is a The Ultimate Fighter veteran but has had mixed results in the UFC. He is 2-2 in the organization with losses to Raul Rosas Jr and Aiemann Zahabi. Overall, his performances have never been overwhelming, and both of his UFC victories have come via split decision. Benardo Sopaj is 0-1 in the UFC, but his debut was still impressive. He and Vinicius Oliveira made their debuts versus each other and put on a show, with Oliviera ultimately getting the flying knee victory late in the third round. I believe Sopaj will build off that performance and take care of business here.
FIGHT WINNER: Bernardo Sopaj
UFC 311 BEST BET: Parlay- Bogdan Guskov/Grant Dawson/Bernardo Sopaj (+139), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.39
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Tagir Ulanbekov (-310) vs Clayton Carpenter (+250)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Tagir Ulanbekov is 4-1 in the UFC, with his loss coming to the always-game Tim Elliott. He has recovered with two submission victories over Nate Maness and Cody Durden. Ulanbekov will likely try to employ a strong grappling game in this matchup but it should be no easy task versus the relative newcomer, Clayton Carpenter. Carpenter is 8-0 as a pro and 2-0 in the UFC. Both of his victories have come via submission in fights in which he was a heavy favorite. I wasn’t ready to anoint him in his last fight, but after an impressive performance, I hopped on the bandwagon. Ulanbekov isn’t a striking threat, which I believe will allow Carpenter to focus on winning grappling exchanges.
FIGHT WINNER: Clayton Carpenter
UFC 311 BEST BET: Clayton Carpenter (+250) vs Ulanbekov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.5
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UFC 311 BEST BETS RECAP
– Dvalishvili/Nurmagomedov Fight Not to be Won via Unanimous Decision (+110), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
– Jiri Prochazka (+105) vs Jamahal Hill, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
– Kevin Holland (+102) vs Reinier de Ridder, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.02
– Serghei Spivac (+370) vs Jailton Almeida, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.7
– Payton Talbott win via KO vs Barcelos (-185), Risk 1.85 Units to Win 1
– Ailin Perez (+200) vs Karol Rosa, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2
– Parlay: Bogdan Guskov/Grant Dawson/Benardo Sopaj (+139), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.39
– Clayton Carpenter (+250) vs Ulanbekov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.5
