UFC 311 Makhachev vs. Moicano Predictions
Often, the UFC displays its ability to be as deft and adroit as its athletes.
In this case a last-minute shuffle to the UFC 311 lineup was made possible by the fact that the UFC has seen and done this prior.
Arman Tsarukyan had to step aside from a dream title opportunity because of a back injury that, according to the Makhachev camp and head coach Khabib Nurmagomedov, was understood as part of the fight game because, in fact, it had happened to Khabib himself during his career.
With another lightweight fight consisting of elite top ten ranked fighters already scheduled for the main slate, the UFC was able to replace Tsarukyan with tenth-ranked Brazilian fighter Renato Moicano, who now steps in for his dream title opportunity albeit with less than a day’s notice. Here are my UFC 311 predictions:
Islam Makhachev -1400 vs. Renato Moicano +875
Lightweight (155 pounds) Championship
Brazilian Renato Moicano has earned this opportunity to step up into the title shot by winning his last four bouts over an array of gifted, diverse mixed martial artists.
In his last fight, he decimated Frenchman Benoit Saint-Denis, which catapulted him into the division’s top ten and set him up for this opportunity to compete on this card and in this championship fight against Islam Makhachev.
Moicano is a gifted fighter and is decorated with black belts in BJJ and Muay Thai. At 35, Moicano is a touch older than the champion, but the experience he has accrued over competing against the elite of two divisions over his career will serve him well in this title opportunity.
For the warrior Makhachev, this fight is short notice for him as well. His attitude in accepting it was that as lightweight champion, the organization simply needs to put any qualified challenger in front of him so he could ‘destroy them.’
Makhachev opened -1500 to +700 for Moicano with a total of 2.5 Rds Under -170.
Once this fight begins, we will see an aggressive forward-pressing approach from Makhachev. He’ll look to strike with Moicano only long enough to try to ground him, take top control, and then find a submission. As I have been taught, world-class wrestling is kryptonite to world-class BJJ.
Moicano will greet the champion in the middle of the cage and begin to throw sharp, straight, refined power strikes to catch the champion and put him out.
Moicano is aware that Makhachev was KO’d early in his second UFC bout by another fellow Brazilian, so Moicano will look to let it all out early in this fight in his attempt to shock the world.
Current pricing on this fight shows little respect for Moicano, but it needs to be understood that Makhachev is this kind of generational talent and would be obtusely similarly favored over anyone else in the division, which is why the originally scheduled Tsarukyan fight was so anticipated.
As I scour betting opportunities for this fight, the best value I find would be to consider taking Makhachev via submission -115.
I lean toward this approach because Moicano is saving this fight for the organization and for Makhachev, so I look for the Dagestani to be merciful to him and try to take him out without any harm to the challenger. Remember Khabib and Gaethje.
UFC 311 Best Bet: Makhachev via Submission -115 .5u
Current total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Under -180
Merab Dvalishvili +265 vs. Umar Nurmagomedov -320
Bantamweight (135 pounds) Championship
Dvalishvili (yes, the champion is the underdog) just won the title from Sean O’Malley in September. He gets little time to enjoy the spoils that go with being the champion as he must now turn around and defend against the cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar.
Dvalishvili, “The Machine” as he is appropriately nicknamed, is an unrelenting, pressing grappler/wrestler who erodes opponents’ will with smothering forward pressure, incessant takedowns and volume striking.
Dvalishvili, who has competed against and earned victory over all the named fighters in the division, is undersized for bantamweight. He carries little power in his striking. However, The Machine overcomes any/all physical disadvantages with an iron will, unending cardio and the unrelenting pressure he unleashes on opponents.
For Merab, size and reach mean little when his forehead is pressed into the opponent’s chest.
In Umar, we get a fighter who steps up in the level of opponent faced for this fight. He’s undefeated in his six UFC appearances. He enters off an impressive victory over Cory Sandhagen, one of the few athletes in the division who was willing to enter the octagon with him.
Umar’s biggest issue to date has been to get any top ten bantamweight to agree to fight him. Make little mistake about it: Merab was hoping to fight anyone in the division for his first title defense before Umar.
Nurmagomedov’s advantages in this fight are physical. He’s the taller man by two inches; he will hold arm and leg reach advantage over Merab, and he’s six years the younger man.
I expect the typical forward-pressure fight from Merab, who feels disrespected by Umar and his camp for this fight. Merab’s a highly emotional man. Leading up to this fight, he’s let that emotion get the best of him.
I have learned that high emotion can have a wide variety of results for any fighter in competition, but mostly, those results are poor as emotion saps strength and cardio.
I am fascinated to watch this fight progress as the wrestling prowess. Each man appears to be on par. It’s the striking where Umar’s length, height and power separate him from Merab.
Merab is singularly dimensioned and has captured the crown with his overpowering and unrelenting wrestling/grappling.
Meanwhile, Umar has the ability to snuff Dvalishvili’s wrestling out. He will use his grappling to defend the forward-charging Merab in order to keep this fight standing where Umar will hold advantage.
I believe the title changes camps on Saturday night.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -260
Tagir Ulanbekov -325 vs. Clayton Carpenter +260
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Ulanbekov is another from the Khabib Nurmagomedov camp of world-class grappling/wrestling-based mixed martial artists. At 4-1 in the UFC, Ulanbekov is not as strong, unrelenting, and gifted as an athlete as the rest of the Nurmagomedov clan, in my humble opinion. He’s competed against a nominal level of UFC opponent. He finished a solid player in Cody Durden in his last bout, but he tripped up in his fight a few back when he was outworked, outwrestled, and out-maneuvered by the unconventional Tim Elliott.
Ulanbekov is a tall, thin, wrestling-based fighter with formidable striking but little to no power in his hands. He’s primarily a grappler, as evidenced by the fact that he has won but one KO victory (2017) and eight submission wins.
Clayton Carpenter enters as a fighter that many are unaware of but he belongs in this high-visibility fight and has a defined path to victory.
Carpenter is an American wrestling savant. The intrigue to this fight will be to learn which form of world-class wrestling will prevail: American or Dagastani, and yes, there is a heated rivalry in that debate.
Carpenter has solid striking and possesses more power than his opponent. He will be giving away an inch of height and four inches of reach to Ulanbekov, but he is five years the younger man. As I handicap this fight, he will be the much thicker, heavier, powerful wrestler in the cage.
This fight represents a step up in competition for Carpenter. However, he, his camp and those who have followed him all realize he is no +235 underdog in this spot.
I mentioned a ‘PhD. in MMA’ bout. It’s my take that Carpenter uses his more compact body type and his American wrestling to push the Dagestani fighter back and control him against the fence on his way to victory, thus awarding Ulanbekov his PhD in MMA.
UFC 311 Best Bet: Clayton Carpenter +260
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -235
Friday midday PST, the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. My final UFC 311 releases for this fight card will be accessed there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights.
