UFC 311 Predictions:
UFC 311 Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan, the year’s first PPV, is scheduled for Inglewood, California. As of Wednesday, there stands some chance that the event will be moved to Las Vegas because of the tragedy in Southern California. Should the event be moved, it’s my take that it lands at T-Mobile with the larger crowd and cage, as opposed to the smaller cage and reduced crowd at the APEX. Stay tuned for more developments regarding the location of this fight card.
UFC 311 features 14 scheduled fights, two Championship five-round battles, one for the lightweight title and the other a bantamweight title fight.
Six matchups are comprised of what I regard as world-class elite Mixed Marial Artists competing against one another. Then there is what I often call a ‘PhD. in MMA fight’ and finally, a short-notice light heavyweight fight where Johnny Walker was replaced with Billy Elekana to fight Bogdan Guskov.
Of the 14 fights whose lines opened some weeks ago, eight have seen the favorite hammered up in price aggressively from the opening line.
It’s my judgment that the market now believes that the momentum of favorites from last year (70.5%) will carry into this year despite the fact that in last week’s UFC Fight Night, chalk only ran 9-5.
I believe eventually, the rate of favorites from last year will drop to the 63 to 65% range. My task is to refine focus and ascertain exactly what underdogs are worthy of investment in 2025.
Here are my UFC 311 predictions.
Islam Makhachev -380 vs. Arman Tsarukyan +320
Lightweight (155 pounds) Championship
Makhachev earned the lightweight title shortly after his teammate and MMA GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov retired undefeated.
In many ways, Makhachev is a more well-rounded fighter than his mentor. He is tall, long, and huge for the 155-pound weight class (he’ll weigh close to 190 when he steps into the cage on Saturday). His striking is on the same world-class level as his grappling/wrestling. Scary.
Makhachev has dominated adversaries in his 16 UFC fights although he did go to decision in his first affair with Alexander Volkanovski.
Makhachev has it all: a world-class team, training regimen, size, the ability to dominate anywhere a fight takes place and finally he sports a deep Dagestani pride.
His adversary, Arman Tsarukyan, is another world-class wrestler/grappler. He has heavy hands, great cardio, and a deep desire to wrest the title from Makhachev.
These two laced up the gloves in a fight against one another in April of 2019, a keenly contested Makhachvev decision. That was Tsarukyan’s UFC debut, and he battled Makhachev in a great fight from bell to bell.
Tsarukyan’s been yearning for this rematch. On Saturday, we will get to see how far he’s evolved since 2019.
Once the fight begins, we’ll witness two bulldozers with similar intent and weaponry take the fight immediately to the other man.
Makhachev’s advantages include championship pedigree, height and will, while Tsarukyan is the younger man by five years. He’ll hold a slight reach advantage that will be squelched by Makhachev’s height.
At open, Makhachev came -217, and he’s been bet to current pricing of -380 at Circa. Takeback on Tsarukyan, who was +185 at open, is now +310!
Each man’s skills, mental force and drive will prove that the total of 4.5 Rds -110 at open is a correct depiction of each man’s ability. That 4.5-round total has been bet to -175 in a move that I tend to agree with as both of these men are prideful warriors with strong defense.
Makhachev has earned the right to be tagged as favorite. However, I believe his price has gotten a bit out of hand.
Total in this fight is 4.5 Rds. Over -180
Merab Dvalishvili +265 vs. Umar Nurmagomedov -320
Bantamweight (135 pounds) Championship
Dvalishvili (yes, the champion is the underdog) just won the title from Sean O’Malley in September. He gets little time to enjoy the spoils that go with being the champion as he must now turn around and defend against the cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar.
Dvalishvili, “The Machine” as he is appropriately nicknamed, is an unrelenting, pressing grappler/wrestler who erodes opponents’ will with smothering forward pressure, incessant takedowns and volume striking.
Dvalishvili, who has competed against and earned victory over all the named fighters in the division, is undersized for bantamweight. He carries little power in his striking. However, The Machine overcomes any/all physical disadvantages with an iron will, unending cardio and the unrelenting pressure he unleashes on opponents.
For Merab, size and reach mean little when his forehead is pressed into the opponent’s chest.
In Umar, we get a fighter who steps up in the level of opponent faced for this fight. He’s undefeated in his six UFC appearances. He enters off an impressive victory over Cory Sandhagen, one of the few athletes in the division who was willing to enter the octagon with him.
Umar’s biggest issue to date has been to get any top ten bantamweight to agree to fight him. Make little mistake about it: Merab was hoping to fight anyone in the division for his first title defense before Umar.
Nurmagomedov’s advantages in this fight are physical. He’s the taller man by two inches; he will hold arm and leg reach advantage over Merab, and he’s six years the younger man.
I expect the typical forward-pressure fight from Merab, who feels disrespected by Umar and his camp for this fight. Merab’s a highly emotional man. Leading up to this fight, he’s let that emotion get the best of him.
I have learned that high emotion can have a wide variety of results for any fighter in competition, but mostly, those results are poor as emotion saps strength and cardio.
I am fascinated to watch this fight progress as the wrestling prowess. Each man appears to be on par. It’s the striking where Umar’s length, height and power separate him from Merab.
Merab is singularly dimensioned and has captured the crown with his overpowering and unrelenting wrestling/grappling.
Meanwhile, Umar has the ability to snuff Dvalishvili’s wrestling out. He will use his grappling to defend the forward-charging Merab in order to keep this fight standing where Umar will hold advantage.
I believe the title changes camps on Saturday night.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -260
Tagir Ulanbekov -325 vs. Clayton Carpenter +260
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Ulanbekov is another from the Khabib Nurmagomedov camp of world-class grappling/wrestling-based mixed martial artists. At 4-1 in the UFC, Ulanbekov is not as strong, unrelenting, and gifted as an athlete as the rest of the Nurmagomedov clan, in my humble opinion. He’s competed against a nominal level of UFC opponent. He finished a solid player in Cody Durden in his last bout, but he tripped up in his fight a few back when he was outworked, outwrestled, and out-maneuvered by the unconventional Tim Elliott.
Ulanbekov is a tall, thin, wrestling-based fighter with formidable striking but little to no power in his hands. He’s primarily a grappler, as evidenced by the fact that he has won but one KO victory (2017) and eight submission wins.
Clayton Carpenter enters as a fighter that many are unaware of but he belongs in this high-visibility fight and has a defined path to victory.
Carpenter is an American wrestling savant. The intrigue to this fight will be to learn which form of world-class wrestling will prevail: American or Dagastani, and yes, there is a heated rivalry in that debate.
Carpenter has solid striking and possesses more power than his opponent. He will be giving away an inch of height and four inches of reach to Ulanbekov, but he is five years the younger man. As I handicap this fight, he will be the much thicker, heavier, powerful wrestler in the cage.
This fight represents a step up in competition for Carpenter. However, he, his camp and those who have followed him all realize he is no +235 underdog in this spot.
I mentioned a ‘PhD. in MMA’ bout. It’s my take that Carpenter uses his more compact body type and his American wrestling to push the Dagestani fighter back and control him against the fence on his way to victory, thus awarding Ulanbekov his PhD in MMA.
UFC 311 Best Bet: Clayton Carpenter +260
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -235
Friday midday PST, the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. My final UFC 311 releases for this fight card will be accessed there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights.
