UFC 312 Predictions du Plessis vs. Strickland:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 312 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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Since 2020: 680-641 (+195.35 Units, 11.21% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
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ALL ODDS VIA DRAFTKINGS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
Dricus du Plessis (-218) vs Sean Strickland (+180)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+145)
Early in his UFC career, I looked to fade Dricus du Plessis. His unorthodox style seemed a gimmick, and I didn’t trust his cardio. But after finishing Darren Till, Derek Brunson, and Robert Whittaker in successive fights. I had to admit I underestimated Du Plessis. I ultimately bet on him at a pick ’em price versus Sean Strickland in their first matchup, then again as an underdog against Israel Adesanya. You can argue about du Plessis’ fight aesthetics, semantics on judging, and other what-if scenarios, but you can’t argue with his results, specifically an 8-0 UFC record that includes multiple legends and champions. Prior to the UFC, he was dealt two losses: one versus an MMA veteran when he was raw and in his early 20s, another when he was cutting too much weight to get down to welterweight to fight for a KSW belt (against a fighter he had defeated in the previous fight). He took losses early in his career and has peaked as a member of the UFC roster—a good recipe for long-term championship success.
The defining adjective for Sean Strickland’s MMA career is also the word that defines virtually all of his individual fights… persistence. He isn’t a highlight machine with over-the-top power or spectacular submissions. He comes out in fights with accuracy and striking volume and does not slow down, whether it’s minute one or minute 25 of the fight. He touches opponents constantly, jab, jab, jab, teep, cross, jab and runs away on the scorecards versus opponents who are frustrated by their inability to land flush. Strickland’s offense is his best defense, but his defense is also excellent. Overall, he is 16-6 in the UFC, with the most recent loss coming against Dricus du Plessis in their last fight. Before that, he uncrowned Israel Adesanya as +470 underdog. After spending time as a welterweight, he has exclusively fought as a middleweight since 2020. He has gone 9-3 in the division, with losses coming to current champ du Plessis, current light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira, and former title challenger Jared Cannonier.
I still believe du Plessis is the better man, and I expect him to defend his title here. He has uncanny toughness and a chin. Despite not always doing things with textbook precision, he is wildly effective. He finds takedowns through stubbornness. He finds homes for his punches without proper setups. But the eye test doesn’t tell the whole story. On paper, he actually lands more significant strikes per minute than Sean Strickland (6.18 to 6.01), and he is more accurate as well (49% vs 42%). Defensively, he is slightly behind Strickland, who avoids 61% of the significant strikes thrown his way compared to du Plessis’ 54%.
When it comes to grappling, Strickland is tough to get down with a 77% takedown defense rate. But the last time these men fought, du Plessis was able to land six of his 11 attempts. Strickland did not surrender much control time, but ultimately, those takedowns were the difference in a fight where both men scored 140+ significant strikes. The pitter-patter striking of Strickland should not be discounted or disrespected. The type of volume he lands is good enough to beat most fighters in the world. But again, I have faith in du Plessis’ chin and his ability to move forward despite his opponent’s offense.
FIGHT WINNER: Dricus du Plessis
UFC 312 BEST BET: Dricus du Plessis (-200, BetMGM) vs Strickland, Risk 2 Units to Win 1
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Weili Zhang (+105) vs Tatiana Suarez (-125)
Over 3.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 3.5 Rounds (+124)
Weili Zhang has had trouble with one opponent in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division: Rose Namajunas. She is 9-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming to “Thug” Rose. Namajunas has left the division and Zhang is back on top. But now, a “new” fighter is rapidly rising to prominence: Tatiana Suarez. The new is in quotes because Suarez is just 10-0 as a pro fighter despite being able to call herself a pro fighter since July 2014. She has had multiple long hiatuses from the sport due to various injuries suffered by her and prospective opponents. However, when she is in the cage, she performs. Five of her seven UFC victories have come inside the distance, and she has a wrestling background second to none. She has won multiple medals in World Championship level wrestling events, and also was expected to compete at the 2012 Summer Olympics in London. A neck injury led to an MRI, which discovered a cancerous growth on her thyroid. She was treated for cancer with radiation and had her thyroid plus some lymph nodes removed before beginning her MMA journey.
Suarez has experienced a crazy amount of success as a cancer survivor, let alone one who was diagnosed at the peak of her athletics career. Her willpower and competitive pedigree are second to none. But that doesn’t necessarily mean she is going to reach the pinnacle of this sport versus a great champion in Weilli Zhang. Over her UFC career, Tatiana Suarez has landed an average of 6.2 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. She lands 63% of her significant strikes and only gets hit 1.38 times per minute due to her ability to control fights with her grappling. Additionally, she is no stranger to submissions and has succeeded in finishing fights via sub four times. Her most recent fight in August of 2023 was against former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade, and she won via second-round guillotine choke.
The story of Tatiana Suarez is inspiring. But, inspiration doesn’t always lead to results versus a physical specimen like Weilli Zhang. As mentioned, her only blemishes have come versus Rose Namajunas (one of which was a controversial split decision), and outside of that, she has virtually run through all other opponents. She is 9-2 in the UFC with four wins via finish. She TKO’d former champions Joanna Jerdrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade and submitted former champion Carla Esparza. She has a ton of power, excellent striking, and a very solid ground game. However, her 50% takedown defense rate will be tested, and she must establish range in this fight. That could be tricky, given she is one inch shorter and has a three-inch lesser reach than Suarez.
This moment has been building for years, and I believe it will deliver a very close fight, as evidenced by the odds. Zhang has an enormous amount of confidence in the cage after fighting 11 times in the last four years. Suarez is confident because she has yet to be beaten and has delivered as a massive favorite in each one of her fights.
FIGHT WINNER: Tatiana Suarez
UFC 312 BEST BET: Tatiana Suarez (-125) vs Weili Zhang, Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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Justin Tafa (+130) vs Tallison Teixeira (-155)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+150) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-195)
Justin Tafa is not a very good heavyweight fighter. He has one attribute: power. He doesn’t have speed, technique, or even much defense. He cannot grapple, and if he gets taken to the mat, he is getting finished or will try to hold on for dear life until the round ends. He is 4-4 in the UFC with one no contest, and to be honest, his four wins are about as weak as they come in a very top-heavy heavyweight division. That said, power is still an important attribute, and he is an Australian fighting in Australia versus a UFC newcomer.
Tallison Teixeira is a 6’7” 25-year-old with a massive 83-inch reach. He won on Contender Series via straight right in the first round. Overall, he is 7-0 as a professional with six knockouts and one submission victory. His strength of schedule is not good. Tafa will test his patience. If he uses his range and avoids getting in range for a hook, he will do just fine in this matchup. But if he comes out overconfident with his chin exposed, he could have a short debut night. Additionally, he was originally scheduled to make his debut in early December, but an injury forced him out of that bout. It is yet to be seen if there will be lasting effects of that injury.
Last week, the UFC cut two heavyweights after UFC Saudi Arabia, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jamal Pogues. Rozenstruik has done a hell of a lot more in the organization than Tafa ever will, but Justin Tafa is important to the organization as a popular Australian fighter at a time when many from down under have fallen on hard times. But if he gets taken down and controlled in this matchup, he may not be in the organization for long. I am not ready to determine whether or not Teixeira will have a lasting impact in this division.
FIGHT WINNER: Tallison Teixeira
UFC 312 BEST BET: Pass
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Jimmy Crute (+130) | vs Rodolfo Bellato (-155)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Jimmy Crute hasn’t fought since July 2023. After beginning his UFC career with a 3-1 record, he is 0-3-1 in his last four bouts. He came onto the scene as a finishing artist but has been finished in his last three bouts. Yet, he is an Aussie fighting in front of Australians after a long time off, and he has a serious edge in experience compared to Bellato. His wild style is a lot to deal with, and his statistical profile backs it up. With 4.84 takedowns landed per minute and about two submission attempts per fight to go with his two UFC knockouts, he gives opponents plenty to worry about.
Rodolfo Bellato is 12-2 as a professional with both losses coming to Vitor Petrino. Once on the regional scene via knockout and again in Contender Series, again by knockout in 2022. That is a bit jarring because Petrino is far from an elite striker in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. However, Bellato is statistically elite in this category over his two Contender Series bouts and UFC debut. Defensively, he is quite weak though (as is Crute).
I will side with the hometown guy making a comeback, but this fight is going to be wild, and the only thing I’m truly confident about is someone getting a finish.
FIGHT WINNER: Jimmy Crute
UFC 312 BEST BET: Crute/Bellato Fight Doesn’t Start Round 3 (-140), Risk 1.4 Units to Win 1
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Jake Matthews (-245) vs Francisco Prado (+200)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Jake Matthews got his spot on the UFC roster in 2014 and has since gone 13-7, with the vast majority of his victories coming versus one-contract fighters. Five of his seven losses have come as a betting favorite of -150 or more and even as high as -500. Eleven of his 20 octagon scraps have been finished inside the distance, meaning he is in exciting fights, just not necessarily high quality.
Francisco Prado joined the UFC with an unblemished 11-0 record, but the 22-year-old now has a 1-2 record in the organization. He has never been finished, and all 12 of his pro victories have come inside the distance. He is a volume striker who gets hit too much and has suspect takedown defense. However, he is just 22 years old, and there is plenty of time and room to improve. If Matthews can employ a grappling-heavy gameplan, Prado is not going to have much of a shot in this fight. His best chance is to do everything he can to keep it on the feet and outpoint his opponent. I worry he lacks the patience to execute this type of strategy. Matthews has been knocked out just once, and it was against a prime Kevin Lee. It would be quite surprising if Prado was the second man to put out Matthews’ lights.
FIGHT WINNER: Jake Matthews
UFC 312 BEST BET: Pass
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Jack Jenkins (+190) vs Gabriel Santos (-230)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Jack Jenkins has devastating leg kicks, the type that have a thud that can be heard from every seat in the arena. He is 3-1 in the UFC and perhaps would be 4-0 if it weren’t for an unfortunate arm injury in his fight versus Chepe Mariscal. Three of his four UFC fights have come on Aussie soil, so he will be quite comfortable after a fight week similar to the ones he has had in the past. He is an accurate and active striker who lacks top-end power with his hands but makes up for it with leg kicks. He is also a capable grappler, landing over two takedowns each time he enters the cage while maintaining a 76% takedown defense rate.
Gabriel Santos is 1-2 in the UFC, but his welcome to the organization was far from polite. He debuted against Lerone Murphy in England and was defeated by a controversial split decision (17/19 media scorecards on MMADecisions.com went in his favor). He followed that up with a brutal knockout loss to David Onama (who is currently surging up most prognosticator’s featherweight power rankings). Instead of tossing Santos aside, he was given a relatively easy fight against Yizha and walked away with a decision win.
Both fighters throw more leg kicks than most, but Jenkins’ kicks are more devastating. Santos will attempt takedowns but I am not sure finishing them will come easy. I like the Aussie, especially at this price.
FIGHT WINNER: Jack Jenkins
UFC 312 BEST BET: Jack Jenkins (+190) vs Santos, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
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Tom Nolan (-102) vs Viacheslav Borschev (-118)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Tom Nolan is an exciting young Australian KO artist who is 2-1 in the UFC. He was overconfident vs. Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut and ate a right cross that ended his night in the first round. He rebounded and has gotten two solid wins. Overall, the 24-year-old lightweight is 8-1 with five wins via knockout. He is rangy at 6’3” with a 73-inch reach. Viacheslav Borschev is a standup fighter who gets dominated when taken down. He is extremely tough, sometimes to his detriment. He has taken a ton of damage while putting together his 4-4-1 UFC record. I believe this fight is closely lined because Borschev shouldn’t have to worry about takedown attempts in this matchup. Nolan’s defense has also been suspect at times in his short UFC career. I think these guys are on opposite trajectories, and I am backing the dog.
FIGHT WINNER: Tom Nolan
UFC 312 BEST BET: Tom Nolan (+105, Circa) vs Borschev, Risk 1 Unit to WIn 1.05
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Cong Wang (-355) vs Bruna Brasil (+280)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Cong Wang had a first-class ticket on the rocket ship to a UFC title fight. She beat Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing before “Bullet” moved over to MMA full-time. However, Wang may have already fumbled the bag after losing via submission as a -950 favorite in just her second UFC fight. She is a striker and an aggressive one at that, which allowed Gabriella Fernandes to take her back and win via rear naked choke. Bruna Brasil is 2-2 in the UFC and is coming off an upset win versus Molly McCann. She selectively uses the takedown with a very high success rate while also being an accurate striker. I believe the UFC put Wang in this matchup for a reason, so I can’t back the dog in this match.
FIGHT WINNER: Cong Wang
UFC 312 BEST BET: Pass
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Colby Thicknesse (+275) vs Aleksandre Topuria (-345)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+110)
Colby Thicknesse is a 25-year-old Australian with a 7-0 record making his UFC debut. He last fought in November and won the HEX Fight Series Bantamweight championship versus the type of fighter who will never get a call to the UFC. However, youth and confidence can sometimes go a long way in the fight game. Aleksandre Topuria is currently most famous for being the brother of current featherweight champion Ilia Topuria. The big brother is just 5-1 at 29 years old, but he is on a three-fight win streak and has three wins via finish. His opponents in this streak have a combined record of 11-28-1. This fight feels like a favor to the current featherweight champion, and something about these odds does not smell right.
FIGHT WINNER: Aleksandre Topuria
UFC 312 BEST BET: Pass
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Rongzhu (+250) vs Kody Steele (-310)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
Rongzhu is 1-3 in the UFC after getting the call up to MMA’s top organization twice. He went 1-2 the first time around and had to build himself back up through Road to UFC. He was a -250 in his last fight vs Chris Padilla and lost via doctor stoppage in the second round. He is now facing Kody Steele, a 7-0 fighter making his debut after a body shot KO victory in Contender Series last October. We have seen this movie many times before with Rongzhu. However, I do believe this line is a bit wide, considering the vast experience disparity between these two fighters. Steele’s takedown defense has not been tested yet, and Rongzhu cannot afford to go out on the wrong end of another slugfest.
FIGHT WINNER: Kody Steele
UFC 312 BEST BET: PASS
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Jonathan Micallef (+185) vs Kevin Jousset (-225)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Jonathan Micallef is an Australian fighter who is 7-1 as a pro. He won via triangle choke on Contender Series in October and was rewarded with a fight in front of a home crowd. The majority of his pro experience has come in HEX Fight Series, which is not the deepest of regional organizations. At 25 years old, he has room to potentially round out his game. Kevin Jousset is French but trains at City Kickboxing in New Zealand. All of his pre-UFC bouts took place in New Zealand or Australia. He is 2-1 in the UFC, with his most recent result being a KO loss to Bryan Battle in September. Despite that result I am optimistic about his prospects in the organization after strong performances in his first two trips to the cage. A submission victory vs Kiefer Crosbie and a decision win versus Kenan Song. Making his fourth trip to the UFC cage definitely is a major advantage in this spot.
FIGHT WINNER: Kevin Jousset
UFC 312 BEST BET: Kevin Jousset (-225) vs Micallef, Risk 2.25 Units to Win 1
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Quillan Salkilld (-625) vs Anshul Jubli (+455)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
Quillan Salkilld is another 25-year-old Australian prospect with a nice record at 7-1 with five wins inside the distance. He won a decision on Contender Series after winning and defending the Eternal MMA lightweight championship twice. Anshul Jubli is 1-1 in the UFC, with a knockout victory and a knockout defeat. He has power, but I do not think it is anything special in this division, and I am skeptical of his grappling ability. I believe Quillan Salkild has every opportunity to win this fight via finish, but I think the price is far too inflated versus a more experienced opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Quillan Salkilld
UFC 312 BEST BET: PASS
UFC 312 BEST BETS RECAP:
– Kevin Jousset (-225) vs Micallef, Risk 2.25 Units to Win 1
– Tom Nolan (+105, Circa) vs Borschev, Risk 1 Unit to WIn 1.05
– Jack Jenkins (+190) vs Santos, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
– Crute/Bellato Fight Doesn’t Start Round 3 (-140), Risk 1.4 Units to Win 1
– Tatiana Suarez (-125) vs Weili Zhang, Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1– Dricus Du Plessis (-200, BetMGM) vs Strickland, Risk 2 Units to Win 1
