UFC 312 du Plessis vs. Strickland Predictions:
We move to the second of 11 straight UFC fight events spanning the next few months. This week, it is UFC 312 from Sydney, Australia, an event scheduled for 13 bouts to be held in a large 30-foot octagon and in front of a loud, raucous Aussie crowd. Four bouts, all of which are on the PPV portion of the slate, are comprised of athletes weighing 170 pounds or more, so the potential for finishes from those larger men is great.
There are eight Australian athletes on the card and another three from China. Also, as a special treat, we have a Mongolian fighter facing an adversary from South Korea in a flyweight battle on the prelims.
Early prelims begin Saturday at 3 p.m. PT, then 5 p.m. PT for prelims, and 7 p.m. PT for the main card.
Last week, my release of Mike Davis -135 was a poor one. The year’s start has been a slow one, but this week, I look to move back into profitability.
Results to date: 1-2, -2.35u
Dricus du Plessis (Champion) -215 vs. Sean Strickland +190
Middleweight (185 pounds) Championship
This is the rematch of an ultra-close fight that turned when a mid-round head butt gashed Strickland and affected his ability to see and throw.
Since they fought each other, du Plessis beat Israel Adesanya, which may not have the same luster as it did before Adesanya’s battle against Nassourdine Imavov last week.
Strickland defeated Paulo Costa in his last outing and won in a tight decision, which should not surprise anyone. Strickland isn’t a power striker or a real finisher. He is a guy who can unleash straight shots, numbing knees and slicing elbows for fifteen rounds, let alone five. Strickland does not like du Plessis, and for Strickland, that is a potentially good thing.
In du Plessis, we get an aggressive hulk of a South African middleweight. He has tremendous strength and forward-pressing aggression. He wants to take the fight right to opponents. Du Plessis couples his force with a striking game that is effective in its unorthodox approach and awkward delivery. Hitting du Plessis and evading his strikes are no easy task, which helps make him uniquely dangerous both on the offense and defensively.
In their first bout, Strickland opened -160 and closed at pick ’em. For this fight, du Plessis opened -155 and is now -230, while the current price on Strickland +205 is venturing into ‘must consider’ time.
Strickland’s ability to unleash volume strikes, his toughness and his cardio all force me to take the juicy price currently available.
UFC 312 Best Bet: Strickland +190
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -175
Weili Zhang (Champion) +105 vs. Tatiana Suarez -125
Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds) Championship
Chinese Champion Zhang opened -250 for this fight. This is her second stint as champion of this division. She has faced every form of threat and has defended her title three straight times over an array of gifted gals, albeit mostly strikers in approach.
Looking into Zhang’s past shows that her toughest tests came against Rose Namajunas, who beat Zhang twice. Namajunas had deft wrestling/grappling ability to go with her effective striking. It is wrestling where Zhang’s mettle has been most tested.
Enter Suarez, of Mexican descent and a former member of the US world team in freestyle wrestling. Early on, she folded in sturdy BJJ to compliment her wrestling. She’s large in structure for her weight class. In this fight, Suarez will be an inch taller with a four-inch reach advantage.
Suarez’s size means something tangible, while the reach advantage will be muted. Suarez’s striking is something she’ll employ only in as much as she can abandon it to ground the Chinese champion and force this fight to the floor.
Money poured in on the American wrestling-based Suarez, and should she maneuver this fight to the mat, she has every chance to control the champion while forcing her to defend rather than maim and injure.
Where this fight takes place will tell us all we need to know here. Zhang at -250 at open may have been a bit bold, but I absolutely regard her as a favorite in this fight and she is currently a dog.
UFC 312 Best Bet Zhang +105
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -240
Let’s remember this is a five-round bout!
Gabriel Santos -235 vs. Jack Jenkins +215
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Regional fighters are often offered somewhat favorable fights when the UFC travels abroad. This helps expand the UFC brand and gets the fans out of their seats to fire up the crowd and event. In this Sydney slate, however, there are a handful of Aussie fighters who happen to be underdogs.
One such dog is veteran Jack Jenkins, who has the advantage of facing a higher level of opponent than his adversary, Gabriel Santos. Jenkins will compete in front of his compatriots against a Brazilian athlete who is talented yet a touch green. Santos must also navigate the complexities of traveling around the world to compete.
Santos’ speed and finishing ability are real. While he’ll be faster than Jenkins, it’s Jenkins’ drive/focus, his unrelenting forward pressure and pure Aussie durability that have me believing that this fight should be lined closer to a pick ’em than the young Brazilian coming a +215 or better chalk.
Jenkins will be down after the first round, but it is in the last ten minutes of this war that he will turn this fight his way.
UFC 312 Best Bet: Jenkins +215
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185 (Lean Over!)
Access all my releases for UFC 312 on Friday morning at GambLou.com on the ‘Bout Business Podcast. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
