UFC 314 Volkanovski vs. Lopes Predictions:
Miami is the host city for this week’s UFC 314 PPV event. This card is scheduled for 13 bouts, three of which will be competed at 170 pounds or above. The larger octagon is in use, and the crowd will be festive, furious, and frenetic. Early prelim action starts at 3 p.m. PT with preliminary fights dropping at 5 p.m. PT and the main card at 7 p.m. PT.
Last week, I put up a stinker with both of my releases losing a total of 2.5u, bringing this year’s digital results to 7-10 -3.45u
Time to dig in.
Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs. Diego Lopes +105
Featherweight Championship
Two years ago, Diego Lopes debuted in the UFC and took current featherweight Mosvar Evloev, currently the division’s fourth-ranked fighter, to a razor-tight split decision loss on five days’ notice! Many, including myself, feel that Lopes actually won that fight.
Since that decision loss, Lopes has scorched all five featherweight adversaries leading into this championship opportunity, and in each case, the level of competition he faced in those opponents increased. That will be no different this week.
Lopes, a BJJ blackbelt training in Mexico, will be the younger man in this title fight by five plus years. He’s six inches taller, and he’ll possess an inch of reach advantage over the former champion.
He employs an aggressive forward-pressing striking attack, backed up with brilliant BJJ. Lopes is tough, durable, and he enters brimming with the confidence that comes from destroying his last five opponents. Now he competes for the belt he has always dreamed of capturing.
Alexander Volkanovski is the featherweight division’s most elite champion. However, at 36 and coming off two decisive knock-out losses, many believe that Volkanovski may be on the other side of his prime.
Those losses were to Ilya Topuria and Islam Makhachev, but those two assassins are the two top pound-for-pound athletes in the UFC. I believe Volkanovski took the second Makhachev fight, the one in which he was finished in, too soon off the heels of the first Makhachev loss, the one in which he shined so brightly.
Then the warrior in him made the first mistake worse in rushing back to face Topuria, his second rush back to competition. So now Volkanovski enters this fight with over a year of rest, which seems wise in this case.
Once this fight begins, Volkanovski must be measured early when the young Lopes is at his most fierce. Navigating the first 10 minutes of this fight and forcing the younger, less experienced Lopes to use mental and physical energy is foundational to Volkanovski’s success. In previous fights, Lopes has shown to be tired as the fight is extended.
Those who believe Volkanovski can execute the same plan against Lopes as he used against Max Holloway in three epic battles will have an easy time picturing how a Volkanovski win will appear: deft movement and a combination of striking/kicking.
Those who feel Volkanovski’s skills have waned from those past two losses will believe he cannot execute such a plan against Lopes at this age and after two substantial knockout setbacks.
The key to this confrontation comes down to Volkanovski’s ability to navigate this fight into the third round and perhaps beyond, where Lopes has not yet been at this level of competition.
He’ll accomplish this by employing deft footwork with striking quickness/precision, all while relying on his deep championship pedigree.
Volkanovski’s depth of five-round championship experience, his cardio, his complete fight arsenal, and most especially, his nimble footwork together with his depth of five-round championship experience, provide him advantage over anyone in the division but…he must have those legs.
Volkanovski opened -150 in this fight and is now -125. He was a buy at -150.
UFC 314 Best Bet Volkanovski -125 or better
Be patient and allow the flow on Lopes to continue. Capture Volkanovski at his most advantageous price.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -210
Jean Silva -325 vs. Bryce Mitchell +265
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Thirteenth-ranked Mitchell is a country boy from Arkansas who has a sturdy wrestling base and is as strong as a country mule. Mitchell is best in fights when he can control the pace by pressing opponents backward, then entangling them with his takedown ability and wrestling acumen.
As capable a wrestler as Mitchell is, that’s how uncomfortable and awkward he is as a striker. Though improving on the feet, Mitchell’s striking and strike evasion skills are the reason he sells out to wrestle. Look no further than his loss to Josh Emmett two fights back to realize that on the feet, Mitchell is susceptible against any formidable striker.
Jean Silva is not only a capable striker, but he may be the scariest fighter in the division. He is short, compact, lightning fast, and packs obtuse power in his frenetic striking style.
Silva has not lost since 2018, and he’s finished all four of his UFC opponents. That being said, this fight with Mitchell does represent a step up in class of opponent for Silva as well. Silva has not competed against a wrestler of this ability prior, so there is a path of destruction for Silva. That path would be to allow this fight to transition to the canvas.
Silva’s momentum, youth, and shorter compact physique—which he can employ to keep the taller Mitchell from taking him down—coupled with the threat of his one-strike finishing ability, force me to regard him as extremely dangerous in this fight.
One last note, for many reasons, the UFC may not be Bryce Mitchell’s biggest fan. They sometimes have a way of cleaning house in their own manner. Mitchell getting this absolute killer off that devastating loss to Emmett two fights back seems to be a perfect example of what the organization can do to someone who is ‘on the fringe’ of their graces.
Silva via demolition.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -175
Virna Jandiroba -145 vs. Yan Xiaonan +125
Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)
In this battle, Jandiroba, the division’s third-ranked fighter who is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a green/white prajied in Muay Thai striking, steps up into the elite of the division.
Jandiroba has won her last four fights against ‘top’ competition in the division, but that competition has not been ‘elite.’ In this fight, she enters into the realm of elite competition against China’s Xiaonan, who has recently competed for the title.
Yan is a fighter who was long, thin, and almost frail when she entered the UFC. However, the UFC Institute in China, Chinese strawweight champion Weili Zhang, and Xiaonan’s desire to become a proud Chinese champion, together provided the impetus for Xiaonan’s steady transformation, growth and improvement in mixed martial arts.
Xiaonan will have a certain striking advantage when these two are on their feet. She is younger, taller, and the more seasoned fighter as well. She is the much stronger lady. Xiaonan understands that to earn victory, she’ll need to keep this fight standing.
Her size/strength will be great assets to her, as well as her past with champion Zhang. While Jandiroba is a cobra when she gets opponents to the mat, her challenge is that her wrestling is not complete enough to be able to take down such a large, structured woman like Xiaonan.
Xiaonan’s power striking, championship experience and takedown defense are all advantages in this fight against the Brazilian Jandiroba, who is less experienced at this level of the division and is more singular in fighting dimension/expertise.
Jandiroba opened -140 in this fight.
UFC 314 Best Bet: Yan Xiaonan +125
Total for this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -180
Weigh-ins from Miami are 6 a.m. PT on Friday, so the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop mid-morning PT this Friday at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
