UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena Predictions:
The UFC heads to Montreal for this week’s UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena. Early prelims kick off at 3:30 p.m. PT with preliminary action at 5 p.m. PT and the PPV portion of the event beginning at 7 p.m. PT.
This fight card features 11 bouts in the larger 30-foot octagon in front of an ‘Oh Canada’ crowd that is as prepared and rowdy as any fight fan alive.
As usual, there has been some shuffling due to a late injury, as Joel Alvarez had to withdraw from his lightweight fight with Benoit Saint Denis.
On short notice enters Kyle Prepolec, a Canadian journeyman fighter who is willing to step in for a second opportunity in the UFC.
So, with Prepolec, six Canadian athletes now populate this card, with only one fighter from the US competing, Charles Radtke.
There are five ‘big boy’ fights (men weighing 170 pounds and above) scheduled. Three of those fights are lined with a 1.5 Rds. total, as would be expected from larger, more powerful men.
Last week, I dropped my release on Miesha Tate, who looked game and was willing, but was slow, lumbering and ineffective. I must improve.
To date: 10-12 -2.70u
Belal Muhammad -180 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +155
Welterweight (170 pounds) Championship
JDM has an undefeated record in seven UFC bouts with wins against a strong set of diversely armed adversaries.
A black belt in BJJ with dogged determination, JDM is an aggressive forward pressing striker who makes up for any lack of quickness and wrestling ability with his toughness, durability, and hot, heavy hands.
In Muhammad, we get a fighter who most people easily overlook. Muhammad is not overly large or powerful, nor does he possess an abundance of footwork or fluidity of movement.
What Muhammad does possess is a world-class wrestling pedigree and a deep-seated belief in his skills. He applies unrelenting forward wrestling pressure by relying on his unending cardio. Muhammad’s cardio and his wrestling form a championship team.
Muhammad is an athlete who does more with his mind than any fighter on the roster.
At the bell, JDM will attempt to force Muhammad into striking exchanges where he feels he has the advantage. He will do all he can to maintain distance between him and the incoming wrestler, for he must not allow Muhammad to clasp onto him.
Over time, JDM’s plan will be to frustrate Muhammad with the striking and, over time, make him desperate to shoot on him and predictable with his takedown attempts.
Striking distance and an aggressive, incoming opponent are recipes for success for the Aussie slugger. Della Maddalena has shown a propensity to excel in those opportunities.
For his part, Muhammad understands that a forceful, forward attack must be employed early to negate any space between him and the Aussie. He must employ his wrestling to negate JDM’s striking space and sap the slugger of his energy by forcing him to defend.
Muhammad is unusually strong/determined. As the match continues, he gains momentum because of his cardio. Over the mid to late stages of a fight, Muhammad becomes more effective while opponents eventually grow weary of his constant, unrelenting pressure. In the words of General Patton, “Fatigue makes cowards of us all.”
So, on one side, we have JDM, who must maintain his striking distance by using constant movement in this fight. He will look to plaster the forward pressing wrestler with power knees, straight strikes, and uppercuts.
JDM’s ability to sidestep his charging adversary to maintain striking distance will determine his fate in this fight. Muhammad pressures early, hard, and incessantly.
While each fighter is accomplished in their own fighting specialty, the fact is that Muhammad’s striking is far more refined and developed than the wrestling/grappling of Della Maddalena.
Muhammad’s depth of wrestling acumen, supplemented with his solid striking and iron-clad will, provides the physical/mental weaponry he requires to earn victory over a competent challenger in JDM who is still somewhat singularly equipped.
UFC 315 Best Bet: Belal Muhammad -180
This line opened -175, was as high as -225, and is now compressing.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -200
Valentina Schevchenko +120 vs. Manon Fiorot -140
Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds) Championship
Second-ranked French fighter Manon Fiorot has earned this championship opportunity by winning her first seven straight UFC bouts against an impressive list of decorated and diverse adversaries.
Fiorot, 35, sports unusual size for a flyweight. She has earned her last five victories via decision. However, one look at those opponents forces me to heap respect on Fiorot, for she has defeated top-six-ranked flyweights on her way to this opportunity.
Current champion Valentina Schevchenko, 37, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column.
She is the champion now a second time, and she has defeated the who’s who in several women’s weight divisions. She finds herself in another title test, this time against a larger, younger, determined French opponent who happens to be less versed in mixed martial arts weaponry than is the champion.
Valentina’s diversity of attack and dynamic ability in wrestling, grappling, Muay Thai, Capoeira, and Sambo have earned her the title of one of the greatest women fighters of all time.
Fiorot’s physical advantages, including her height, reach, striking ability, and youth, make her a true threat to the title. This fight will depend on whether Fiorot can force Shevchenko to complete all five rounds standing.
I must give Valentina respect for her world-class fighting arsenal as well as her deep championship history. Still, at 37, with the wars she has been in, and now her propensity to fly private and dress in designer clothing, it forces me to side with the younger, stronger lioness in this fight.
Fiorot opened -120 and has now been bet to -140.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -310
UFC 315 Best Bet: Muhammad -180/Fiorot -140 parlay 1u to earn 1.67u
Ion Cutelaba -115 vs. Modestas Bukauskas -105
Light heavyweight (205 pounds)
Let us look at this light heavyweight battle between the Moldovan madman, Ion Cutelaba, who faces Lithuania’s Modesta Bukauskas in a regional, eastern European battle to be held in Montreal!
Lithuania sends in a tall, angular athlete who is dangerous on the feet and agile with his grappling, while the shorter, more compact Moldovan hand grenade Cutelaba arrives as a maniacal, offensive power striker with a forceful grappling base.
Cutelaba looks to ruin all in his wake through any fight with his blatantly aggressive striking attack. Cutelaba is all offense and little defense. However, his mad rushes to engage often leave him open for counterstrikes and takedowns.
The price on this fight has barely moved off the basic pick ’em where it opened. Bukauskas is the more measured, better-paced offensive threat, and he is also the more well-rounded, defensive-minded mixed martial artist here.
If he can weather the madman from Moldova’s first five minutes, then this fight will turn in his favor.
Friday the ‘Bout business podcast drops around midday PT. Catch it only at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
All odds via Circa
