UFC 317 Predictions Topuria vs. Oliveira:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 317 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 1-3 -1.46 Units (-42.44% ROI)
Since 2020: 723-692 (+189.53 Units, 10.87% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 7-5 (58.33%)
Article History: 413-263-1 (61.09%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Ilia Topuria (-440) vs. Charles Oliveira (+340)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Lightweight Championship
Ilia Topuria is 16-0 as a pro, 8-0 in the UFC, and 2-0 versus past champions. The 28-year-old Georgian-Spaniard has a nearly 90% finish rate and has been humbling future Hall of Farmers as of late. His last two fights were early knockout victories over two of the greatest featherweights of all time, Alex Volkanovski and Max Holloway. However, this fight is at a higher division, lightweight, and it’s against another future Hall of Famer and former belt holder, Charles Oliveira.
Much has been made about Topuria’s size for this division. He is just 5’7”, which is three inches shorter than Charles Oliveira. Additionally, he will be giving up five inches in reach. I firmly believe Topuria has a skill set that will translate well into the lightweight class. Topuria has elite wrestling and a submission game that has yielded eight professional submissions. But I don’t expect grappling to be a big part of his game plan in this fight. His hands have gotten better every time he has entered the cage. At featherweight, he had power to spare, and I expect it to be on full display in this main event.
Charles Oliveira is hard not to like. He was a journeyman in the UFC, bouncing up from featherweight to lightweight to avoid the tough toll the weight cut put on his body. With that change, he rode an 11-fight win streak and won two title fights. He has power, albeit he is not an overly technical striker. However, his greatest strength is in grappling. If he has top control, the submission is imminent. If he is on the bottom with an opponent in his guard, he is nearly as big of a threat to find the finish. The 35-year-old has seen plenty of adversity over the course of his 34 UFC bouts and is no stranger to pulling a rabbit out of his hat. Versus Michael Chandler, he looked like he was finished, but found the knockout early in the second round. He ate big shots from Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier but was able to find a rear-naked choke on both opponents. And even last summer during the previous international fight week, he nearly pulled off a last-second choke against Arman Tsarukyan in a fight that he ultimately lost via split decision. His size and comfort on the ground will be a factor. And there is also a familiarity with fighting in main events on major fight cards that could make Oliveira the more comfortable fighter.
Although he is coming up a weight class, Ilia Topuria has as much or more punching power than anyone Oliveira has seen, even at lightweight. Additionally, I think Topuria’s ability to apply downward pressure from top position could keep him safe if he ends up in Oliveira’s guard. Both Arman Tsarukyan and Islam Makhachev employed these techniques with great success against the BJJ black belt. There is a world where Oliveira is too big, and his chin is too strong for Topuria to get him out of there. I do not think that is the path we are headed down. I believe Topuria’s hand speed will be the difference in the stand-up, and I expect Topuria to try to keep the fight standing as much as possible. Oliveira has taken plenty of damage over the course of his long UFC career, and eventually, the chin goes. It may already be going. With these fighters’ careers on different trajectories, I expect to see a full changing of the guard with Topuria winning via knockout.
FIGHT WINNER: Ilia Topuria
UFC 317 BEST BET: Ilia Topuria via knockout (-165, FanDuel) vs Oliveira, Risk 1.65 Units to Win 1
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Alexandre Pantoja (-238) vs. Kai Kara-France (+195)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 4.5 Rounds (-120)
Flyweight Championship
Alexandre Panoja had to grind in the flyweight division to get his title shot. And before that, he had to grind on The Ultimate Fighter. He started his career with a solid 6-3 record in the organization, but since 2021, he is 7-0 with four victories in title fights. Additionally, despite being a flyweight, he has proven to be a finisher with five submissions and two knockouts in the UFC. His grappling is about as good as it gets in this division. He can kill the clock with top control and bank rounds, early or late, depending on what is needed, as evidenced by his 74% share of total ground control time across all of his fights (meaning when the fight hits the mat, he is in control 74% of the time). He is not the best striker in the division, but he is good enough with high activity levels and good jab and power accuracy. He has scored four knockdowns as well. In his title fights, he has averaged 1.58 takedowns per round and 4.64 significant strikes landed per minute. These are truly elite numbers at the highest levels.
There have been some comments about Kai Kara-France not deserving this title shot due to his overall record and recent form. He is 8-4 in the UFC, and won his last fight after losing two in a row. However, the raw win-loss record does not tell the full story. Two fights ago, he was robbed against Amir Albazi, losing via split decision despite landing more significant strikes in all five rounds and also landing two takedowns to Albazi’s one. I am not alone in thinking this decision was terrible. Nineteen out of 21 journalists on MMADecisions.com gave the fight to Kara-France, with 10 giving him the fight with a decisive 49-46 scorecard. He defended eight of nine takedown attempts in that fight and even landed both that he attempted. In his UFC career, Kara-France has defended 88% of his opponents’ takedown attempts, and he has not been taken down more than twice in any of his career UFC fights. He is also an excellent kickboxer, with three knockout victories in the organization, including a first-round finish versus Steve Erceg in August of 2024.
On the feet, Kara-France is the superior striker both on offense and defensively. He is also three years younger and will have a two-inch reach advantage. His takedown defense is legit, and he has proven that it stays throughout the fight. That said, Pantoja is a rightful favorite, but I don’t agree with the price. I think that Kara France can move in the big octagon and stay out of grappling range, and he can outpoint Pantoja with his hands and legs. I like the Kara-France side and think a flyer on him to win via knockout +600 could be worth a shot.
FIGHT WINNER: Kai Kara-France
UFC 317 BEST BET: Kai Kara France (+200, BetMGM), vs Pantoja, Risk 1 Unit to win 2 Units
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Brandon Royval (+102) vs. Joshua Van (-122)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Flyweight
Brandon Royval would potentially be the UFC flyweight champion if Alexandre Pantoja didn’t exist. He is 7-3 in the UFC with two losses to Pantoja, and a split series with Brandon Moreno (he won their most recent bout). After beating Moreno in February of 2024, he fought 16-0 fighter Tatsuro Taira and decisively won despite the official result being a split decision. He is a well-rounded fighter who has a very tricky ground game and underrated striking power. His reputation as a wild fighter has been tempered somewhat as he has matured within the organization, which has enabled him to secure wins over some of the world’s best fighters. His takedown accuracy rate of 75% is very good considering the level of competition he has faced.
Joshua Van is challenging Kevin Holland for the most active fighter on the roster. He is 7-1 in the organization after taking his first UFC fight in June of 2023, and he has already fought twice in 2025. He has spectacular striking, landing a ridiculous 8.2 significant strikes per minute since joining the organization and has landed 118+ significant strikes in five of his UFC fights (he has never fought a five-round fight in the organization). He is not simply a headhunter; more fighters should study his use of body shots. He has great takedown defense at 81% and actually averages nearly one takedown per fifteen minutes in the cage. But I have serious concerns about his strength of schedule, and he has just one win over a fighter currently ranked in the top 15.
I think Royval will have a strong game plan for this matchup. Van wants to fight exactly one way, out-pointing Royval on the feet. Royval can fight standing and potentially has a pure power advantage, and if he gets the fight to the ground, he should be able to impose his will. Van is young and strong, but so was Tatsuro Taira. Experience matters, and generally speaking, the fighter who truly embodies the “mixed” part of mixed martial arts gets their hand raised.
FIGHT WINNER: Brandon Royval
UFC 317 BEST BET: Brandon Royval (+104, FanDuel), vs Van, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.04 Units
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Beneil Dariush (-102) vs. Renato Moicano (-118)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
Lightweight
As Reed Kuhn mentioned on my Just Win MMA Podcast this week, mirror matchups don’t get much more mirror than this one. The combatants were born 15 days apart in 1989. They are virtually the same height and have the exact same reach. That being said, the past few years have been quite different for both of these men. Beneil Dariush was on an eight-fight win streak between November 2018 and October 2022. He was on the doorstep of a title shot and hit a wall. He was knocked out in the first round against Charles Oliveira in June 2023, and then, six months later, he was knocked out by Arman Tsarukyan. He took a full year off and was scheduled to fight Moicano at UFC 311 in January. That card had a last-minute change in the main event with Moicano getting a title shot. Dariush has been patient and is now getting the fight on the highest-profile fight card of the year. Dariush has great striking power and a dominant ground game. He was knocked out in his last two fights, but I am not certain that Moicano has the pure power of those opponents.
Renato Moicano has had a solid second half to his career. He is 12-6 in the UFC but has won six of his last eight fights. His recent last-minute title shot did not go well versus Islam Makhachev, but prior to that, he finished Benoit Saint-Denis and came back from the dead versus Jalin Turner at UFC 300 last Spring. He is a BJJ master, and as evidenced by his last two finishes, he knows how to utilize ground and pound when that path is more accessible than submission. That being said, I do not think that this is a good matchup for Moicano. Dariush has a good enough ground game to stay safe or avoid being taken down altogether. On the feet, Dariush’s power shots should win the day. It should be noted that Moicano opened up as -155 favorite in this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Beneil Dariush
UFC 317 BEST BET: Beneil Dariush (-105) vs Moicano, Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
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Payton Talbott (+145) vs. Felipe Lima (-175)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
Bantamweight
Payton Talbott was a burgeoning star in the UFC last year. He was 3-0 in the UFC with three finishes. He got a chance to fight a tried-and-true veteran in Raoni Barcelos at UFC 311 in January and was completely humbled. We learned that Talbott’s takedown defense is wanting, and he had no ability to get off his back. His power is still dangerous, but after Barcelos landed eight of 15 takedown attempts it is safe to assume every opponent is going to try to employ this game plan. This fight feels like a showcase for young Bantamweight talent, and the stakes couldn’t be higher, considering the division needs some fresh names at the top of the rankings.
Felipe Lima is 2-0 in the UFC after defeating Muhammad Naimov via rear-naked choke and Miles Johns via decision. Prior to joining the UFC, he won a title in the big-time Czech promotion Oktagon MMA. He is 14-1 as a professional, with half of his fights coming via decision. Like most high-level fighters, his striking defense rate stands out, all the way up at 72%. Additionally, he has landed at least one takedown in both of his UFC contests. I want to buy into the Lima hype train, but I’m worried about the test his chin may take compared to Payton Talbott. If he can find takedowns, it’s over, but it remains to be seen if he will be able to close the distance against a fighter who is four inches taller.
FIGHT WINNER: Felipe Lima
UFC 317 BEST BET: Pass
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Jack Hermansson (+185) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-225)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson is now 38 years old and has lost three of his last five fights, although his most recent performance was one of the best of his career. He defeated Joe Pyfer via clear decision as a +200 underdog in a fight that sent the message he is still a worthy gatekeeper in this division. Five of his eleven UFC wins have come via decision, and he has three knockdowns and submissions. Additionally, given his long tenure of success in the UFC, he only fights the best of the best, with four of his six losses coming to opponents who have fought for or won a UFC title. He has a knack for making fights boring while outscoring his opponents. He has a strong wrestling game and good enough footwork to stay out of harm’s way.
Gregory Rodrigues was on my short list for title challengers in 2025. But he crashed into the ceiling of his potential versus the great Jared Cannonier in a Fight Night main event. He was able to hit Cannonier early but was unable to finish the fight. He gassed out, and Cannonier found the KO in the fourth round. Rodrigues is 7-3 in the UFC with five wins via knockout. He also has a BJJ black belt, but grappling is always his backup plan. With power like his, that strategy makes sense. I cannot shake what we saw in the Cannonier fight. His knockouts have come against opponents who are not exactly top 15 material. I think that Hermansson’s footwork is going to keep him safe, and there is potential for Hermansson to eat clock with takedowns of his own.
FIGHT WINNER: Jack Hermansson
UFC 317 BEST BET: Jack Hermansson (+185) vs Rodrigues, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
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Hyder Amil (+120) vs. Jose Delgado (-142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
Featherweight
Hyder Amil is quite comfortable being the underdog. He has been +165 or better in all three of his UFC fights and has a 3-0 record in the organization. Two of his wins have come via KO. Additionally, he is 11-0 as a pro fighter and excels at weaponizing his cardio. He has six career knockout finishes, but they generally come from flurries against gassed opponents and not one-hitter quitters. He has landed 6.84 significant strikes per minute and has also earned a great 80% takedown defense rate
Jose Delgado is a 9-1 fighter coming out of the reputable MMA Lab in Phoenix. He is 1-0 in the UFC after a thunderous 1st round knockout versus Connor Matthews. He is an exciting fighter with a 100% finish rate. Like Amil, Delgado fights at a very high pace; however, he is the more likely fighter to commit to takedowns. Delgado is eight years younger, has a two-inch height advantage, and a four-inch reach advantage, meaning he will have definite physical advantages. However, I worry about how Delgado will appear if he does not inflict significant damage on Hyder Amil early in the fight. If this makes it round three, Amil will be trying to break him with relentless pressure. The betting market has moved towards Amil throughout the week.
FIGHT WINNER: Hyder Amil
UFC 317 BEST BET: Pass
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Viviane Araujo (+215) vs. Tracy Cortez (-265)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-720) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+450)
Women’s Flyweight
Viviane Araujo is a true veteran of the UFC’s women’s flyweight division. She is 7-5 and debuted in the organization in 2019. She has fought some of the best in the division and has momentum after derailing the Karine Silva hype train as a +240 underdog last November. Over the course of her career, she has been able to mix things up well, landing takedowns while also landing 4.04 significant strikes per minute. That said, her striking defense is cause for concern, as she absorbs 4.87 significant strikes per minute.
Tracy Cortez has navigated the UFC flyweight waters commendably. She is 5-1 in the organization and 11-2 as a professional. In the UFC, she suffered her first defeat last July as Rose Namajunas defeated her via decision. She hasn’t necessarily set the world on fire with her strength of schedule, but she does own a win over Erin Blanchfield in 2019 in Invicta FC and defeated Jasmine Jasudavicius in 2023 (now ranked #5 in the UFC). I expect Cortez to get her hand raised here, but she cannot take this veteran opponent lightly.
FIGHT WINNER: Tracy Cortez
UFC 317 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Terrance McKinney (-170) vs. Viacheslav Borschev (+142)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+180) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-238)
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney is best known for competing in some of the most action-packed fights in the organization. He is 6-4 in the UFC, and exactly one of his fights has made it to the second round. He charges forward, swings wildly, and forces his way into takedowns if they are open. He can submit opponents, he can knock out opponents, he doesn’t worry about defense, and doesn’t even consider pacing himself. What is not to like?
Viacheslav Borschev is a good kickboxer with terrible takedown defense. Like McKinney, he is an all-action fighter; however, he does have at least a modicum of self-preservation. He is 3-4-1 in the UFC with two of his wins coming via knockout. He has been finished once in the UFC, and it took a heroic effort from Chase Hooper to get there. His toughness is unimpeachable. That said, he is willing to take a punch to land one, which is quite a risk versus McKinney. But he also has the power to end the fight as McKinney charges forward.
FIGHT WINNER: Terrance McKinney
UFC 317 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Niko Price (+1000) vs. Jacobe Smith (-1800)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-270)
Welterweight
Niko Price has had as many downs as ups in the UFC, but he is still on the roster because he can put on a show. He is 8-8 (2 NC) in the organization and has lost three of his last four fights. His chin is perhaps suspect because he has been knocked out five times in the organization. Six of his UFC wins have come inside the distance, with decisions as his last two victories. His striking accuracy is below average, his striking defense rate is below average, and his grappling metrics are nothing to write home about. His biggest asset in this fight is probably his 4” reach advantage.
Jacobe Smith is a high-level wrestler who has informed the world he also has power in his hands. He is 10-0 as a pro with eight wins via knockout. He won via KO in Contender Series and followed that up with a first-round finish of Preston Parsons. He is an opponent who is tough to feel out because standing and trading is dangerous, and taking him to the ground is likely going to end in a reversal. Niko Price is a solid name to help build Smith’s resume.
FIGHT WINNER: Jacob Smith
UFC 317 BEST BET: Parlay- Tracy Cortez, McKinney/Borschev u1.5 Rounds, Price/Smith u1.5 Rounds (+179), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.79
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Jhonata Diniz (-455) vs. Alvin Hines (+350)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-120) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)
Heavyweight
Jhonata Diniz is a kickboxer who has made the jump to MMA full-time. He is a devastating puncher, but he is susceptible to being taken down. In his last fight, he received his first promotional loss versus Marcin Tybura, a doctor’s stoppage after round two. His takedown defense was his downfall, but he did show toughness. He has also demonstrated the ability to recover from being taken down early and secure the finish late. His opponent, Alvin Hines, is an undefeated 7-0 fighter taking this bout on short notice. Six of his wins have come via finish. His results have been great, but his strength of schedule is suspect. He is getting this opportunity because Justin Tafa withdrew from this event.
FIGHT WINNER: Jhonata Diniz
UFC 317 BEST BET: Diniz/Hines Under 1.5 Rounds (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
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UFC 317 BEST BETS RECAP
- Ilia Topuria via knockout (-165, FanDuel) vs. Oliveira, Risk 1.65 Units to Win 1
- Kai Kara France (+200, BetMGM) vs. Pantoja, Risk 1 Unit to win 2 Units
- Brandon Royval (+104, FanDuel) vs. Van, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.04 Units
- Beneil Dariush (-105) vs. Moicano, Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
- Jack Hermansson (+185) vs. Rodrigues, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
- Parlay- Tracy Cortez, McKinney/Borschev u1.5 Rounds, Price/Smith u1.5 Rounds (+179), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.79
- Diniz/Hines Under 1.5 Rounds (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
