UFC 318 Poirier vs. Holloway Predictions:
New Orleans is the location for this week’s UFC 318, a PPV event featuring 14 bouts with early preliminary action beginning at 3:15 p.m. PT, prelims kick off at 5 p.m. PT, then the PPV portion of the event drops at 7 p.m. PT.
A large 30-foot octagon and a house full of overserved swamp rats will cheer for the local athletes, of which Dustin Poirier is one of only two Louisiana natives on the card.
Of the 14 fights, nine take place at welterweight (170 pounds) or above. Of those nine, eight are placed in the prelims of this card, so violence begins early and runs throughout the slate!
Again, this week we have some ‘mature’ athletes hitting the cage. The UFC is offering us seven bouts where the age difference exceeds five years.
As discussed last week, the fact that younger athletes, particularly in matchups where they are also taller and have longer limb reach over their opponents, hold an abnormal advantage, especially if the fight plays out on the feet.
Last week, eight of nine younger fighters facing older competitors earned victory, with the only exception being Derrick Lewis, who arrived with an advantage in experience and level of competition faced.
It pays to undertake the appropriate due diligence when assessing these bouts.
The Favorite/Dog count for last week was 8-4, making favorites 65.2% in 2025.
Last week’s release of Stevie Garcia parlayed to Morgan Charriere won 1.58u, making digital results for 2025: 14-16 -2.32u
Let’s fight!
Dustin Poirier +105 vs. Max Holloway -125
Lightweight (155 pounds) main event
Trilogy fight
This fight is for the ‘BMF’ title that the UFC created some years ago. Further, this fight is the third between these two men, with Poirier, a Louisiana native, having won the first two bouts, the first in dominant fashion when Max debuted in the UFC and took the fight on oh so short notice, and the second, for the lightweight title in 2019 when Poirier won in a close decision.
Poirier opened -150 for this fight, but he has now been bet into the underdog position while money has come in on his opponent. Many fight investors are wary when athletes announce retirement before a fight. I believe this has much to do with the line movement in this fight.
Poirier is a black belt in BJJ with dynamic boxing credentials. He is the former lightweight interim champion who has competed against the elite of this division for several years.
Poirier will be the older athlete, the shorter athlete, and the athlete with a deficit in arm/leg reach. That, along with the retirement announcement, help explain why this line has been ebbing toward Holloway.
Poirier packs profuse power in his strikes/kicks. He is a formidable wrestler and has great durability and cardio. He takes this challenge after realizing a 1-2 record over the last couple of years losing to Justin Gaethje via finish as well Islam Makhachev in the same manner.
Poirier is a pressure fighter. He will look to force Holloway backwards in this fight, keep him on his heels and attack the longer, taller man with the formidable power of his striking/kicking.
It is inside the pocket, pressed against the fence, and in a toe-to-toe confrontation that Poirier will hold his greatest advantage. His strength and unrelenting forward pressure work in his favor.
Max Holloway, the current ‘BMF’ title holder, gives Poirier, a former BMF titleholder, the opportunity to retire with that BMF belt. Make no mistake, Holloway is not doing this for Poirier. He’s doing this to destroy Poirier in this third fight and ride off with a win, the BMF belt, and a future championship bout in this lightweight division.
Holloway, 33, has fully evolved into the lightweight frame, and he retains his snap, quickness, and his fleet-footed ability, all while enhancing the power/effectiveness of his strikes.
Except for his last battle against Topuria, Holloway has been able to evade incoming power punches and land counters off the aggression of opponents, then attack once the incoming opponent is harmed.
Holloway’s height, reach and length (arms/legs) position him advantageously in this brawl while it remains standing.
Holloway’s significant strike differential per five minutes of fight time stands at +2.4, while Poirier’s ratio stands +.97 significant strikes landed per round. What this highlights is the activity and volume of Max while also displaying the lower volume, higher impact/power of Poirier.
Once the bell for round one rings, I expect each man to begin to try to systematically beat the other man down. These men have a total of six rounds against each other in prior competition, so I envision few surprises or new twists. I envision two proud, stubborn warriors, each hunting to incapacitate the other.
Poirier has the more daunting task because when these two last tangled, Poirier was 31 while Max was 28. Now 36 and on the shelf since June of last year, Poirier prepares for a final confrontation that will take his best effort to win.
Holloway does not enter this battle unscathed! He arrives off a devastating KO at the hands of Ilya Topuria last year in October, so each man enters this battle off a damaging loss.
Two forceful, proud, world-class fighters who are as capable mentally as they are physically, men who are intimately familiar with each other, will meet in the middle of a 30-foot cage this Saturday in New Orleans to determine which warrior walks out of the cage with the BMF belt.
In my estimation, this is an ultimate competition and one that may not make it to the final bell!
What more could we ask for in a main event?
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -140
Roman Kopylov -250 vs. Paulo Costa +220
Middleweight (185 pounds) co-main event
Roman Kopylov, ranked 14th in the division, is a Russian striker with a deep background in combat sambo. Kopylov arrives at this fight having earned victory in his last two in a row, pushing his UFC tally to 6-3.
His loss two fights ago to legitimate top-10middleweight Fluffy Hernandez is the only thing preventing Kopylov from entering the top 10 of this division.
In this fight, he enters with a slight reach advantage and a negligible significant strike differential. Yes, Kopylov accepts just as many significant strikes as he unleashes.
Kopylov is skilled in wrestling/grappling, but he utilizes that skill only when necessary, preferring instead to use his height and reach to deploy his striking offense against opponents.
Thirteenth-ranked Brazilian hotwire Paulo Costa has a size/athletic advantage over Kopylov in this fight, besides being the more explosive combatant. Costa is the more experienced fighter because he has competed against numerous top-ranked adversaries.
The brazen Brazilian is a paltry 1-4 in his last several UFC competitions, albeit against elite competition within the division. Costa’s performances sway between confounding and impressive based on nothing that I have been able to detect or handicap.
Costa is a true pariah. When mentally/physically prepared to fight for a full three rounds, Costa may be regarded as a legitimate top 10 talent in the division.
The issue with Costa is his lack of appropriate mental preparation, his inconsistent focus, and his fleeting fortitude. Costa enjoys all aspects of life that tend to corrode elite fighting talent.
What he has shown a propensity to detest are stringent training, mental discipline, and innate confidence.
What is certain is that Kopylov enters this fight prepared to do anything he can to steal Costa’s reputation and ranking.
What is not certain (in this or any other battle, for that matter) is the mental condition and physical conditioning of Costa entering this fight.
For this reason, I will choose to watch this bout because there is no way to trust the approach in this or any fight from Paolo Costa.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -200
That total indicates Costa’s competence, something I am unwilling to invest in.
Dan Ige -175 vs. Patricio ‘Pitbull’ Freire +145
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Freire, ‘Pitbull’ as he is nicknamed, is a 38 year old legend of mixed martial arts who never had the chance to compete in the UFC until his last fight where they presented him a taller, longer, younger, ranked opponent in number three ranked featherweight Yair Rodriguez who made Pitbull look his age in a unanimous decision loss.
Now, Pitbull turns it around just 12 weeks after that one-sided decision loss to Rodriguez.
Pitbull is a warrior, and if given the chance to compete in the UFC six years ago, he would have been able to display his world-class talent and, without doubt, would have competed for a title. But at this age, and after the attrition he has incurred from a lifetime of mixed martial arts, his skills are waning, his reaction time is slowing, and his ability to navigate in front of larger, younger men is waning.
Pitbull’s opponent for this bout is none other than 11th-ranked Dan Ige, who notably took the fight last summer against Diego Lopes on hours’ notice and fought an excellent fight in losing a decision.
Ige is afforded advantages in this fight that he rarely realizes. He is five years younger, an inch taller, and he holds a six-inch reach advantage.
Add to that the fact that Ige has been set back each time he fights an elite top ten talent and we have the recipe for a focused, driven Dan Ige who is prepared to utilize his physical advantages as well as his youth and quickness to further expose the proud aged Pitbull in a fight that I see going to decision.
Ige -175 is the favorite in this fight, and I must say this price is very affordable given the dynamics of this fight.
UFC 318 Best Bet: Dan Ige -175*
*I’ll use Ige -175 as the first leg of a parlay and pair him with a fighter from next week’s slate, Da’Mon Blackshear -258, who battles England’s Davey Grant at UFC Abu Dhabi
This one-unit investment returns 1.19u
Total in this fight 2.5 Rds over -280
Friday midday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. We are coming off a 5-0 weekend last week, so join me at GambLou.com to access this week’s UFC 318 releases! Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
