UFC 319 Predictions:
UFC 319, one of the final five pay-per-view (PPV) events for the UFC in 2025, takes place this Saturday. Starting in 2026, UFC events will shift to Paramount and CBS, phasing out the traditional PPV model for a more lucrative platform. While this transition deserves deeper discussion, we’ll save that for another time.
The main event features a thrilling middleweight title clash between champion Dricus Du Plessis of South Africa and the No. 3-ranked Khamzat Chimaev, a Russian grappler widely regarded as one of the UFC’s most dangerous fighters. The fight card begins with early prelims at 3:00 p.m. PT, regular prelims at 5:00 p.m. PT, and the PPV portion at 7:00 p.m. PT.
UFC 319 features 13 scheduled bouts, with five involving fighters at 170 pounds or heavier, offering a higher likelihood of finishes. Five matchups have a youth advantage of six years or more, and two bouts pit fighters aged 37 or older against each other—call them the “geriatric” battles!
Last week’s parlay loss dropped my column’s record to 16-18, -0.47 units for the year. Let’s get back in the black with UFC 319!
Khamzat Chimaev (-230) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+195)
Middleweight Championship (185 pounds) Main Event
Khamzat Chimaev, a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) with exceptional wrestling, trains between Sweden and the UAE. He burst onto the UFC scene like a lightning bolt, dominating opponents across welterweight and middleweight with devastating finishes. However, recent health issues, inactivity, and a lack of elite middleweight competition have tempered his momentum. His notable middleweight wins include a one-sided thrashing of former champion Robert Whittaker last October, a close majority decision over welterweight Kamaru Usman (who took the fight on short notice), and a favorable matchup against Kevin Holland.
Chimaev’s aggressive, smothering style shines in the first two rounds, but he’s shown signs of fatigue against smaller opponents like Gilbert Burns and Usman. This vulnerability could be critical against a true middleweight like Du Plessis.
Champion Dricus Du Plessis, a second-degree black belt in kickboxing, brings an unconventional, awkward fighting style. A massive, dynamically strong middleweight with excellent cardio and durability, he’s not nimble or precise with his striking but thrives in chaotic, pressure-heavy brawls. His strategy: overwhelm Chimaev with relentless forward pressure, aiming to break the Russian’s will.
Du Plessis has won nine consecutive UFC fights, including four title defenses against the division’s elite. In contrast, Chimaev has fought only once since October 2023. While Chimaev has likely improved his cardio, his limited recent octagon time is a concern.
This fight is a must-watch from the opening bell. Chimaev will aim to dominate early with his grappling, looking to “drown” Du Plessis in pressure. However, Du Plessis plans to counter by bullying the bully, attacking from the start to exploit Chimaev’s potential fatigue after the first 10 minutes. If Du Plessis survives the early storm and takes the fight into the third round, his size, strength, and experience could drain Chimaev’s energy.
To retain his title, Du Plessis must deliver the best 10 minutes of his career to avoid Chimaev’s deadly submission game. The betting line for Du Plessis (+195) is rising, so wait for the best price.
UFC 319 Best Bet: Dricus Du Plessis (+195)
Total: Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
Carlos Prates (-245) vs. Geoff Neal (+205)
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Geoff Neal, ranked No. 11 in the welterweight division, is a powerful striker and BJJ purple belt from Texas. Fresh off a win over Rafael dos Anjos, Neal previously dropped bouts to elite talents Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.
No. 12-ranked Carlos Prates, a chain-smoking Brazilian BJJ black belt, is an ultra-aggressive striker with knockout power. With advantages in height, reach, youth, and speed, Prates is the more dynamic fighter. Both men, previously defeated by Garry, will look to trade bombs in a stand-up war. Prates’ diverse striking, including a punishing leg-kick game, could neutralize Neal’s compact power and mobility.
This fight promises fireworks, with Prates likely securing a finish.
Total: Under 2.5 Rounds (-165)
Edson Barboza (-155) vs. Drakkar Klose (+135)
Lightweight (155 pounds)
At 39, Brazilian Edson Barboza returns to lightweight, his original UFC division, for a pivotal bout. His opponent, 37-year-old Drakkar Klose from Phoenix, Arizona, enters off a loss to Joel Alvarez after a four-fight win streak. Both are lethal strikers—Klose with heavy hands and a direct approach, Barboza with a diverse arsenal, including leg-kicking prowess.
This matchup screams finish, but it’s likely to last beyond 7:30 due to their durability and skill.
Total: Over 1.5 Rounds (-200)
For my complete UFC 319 picks, check out the Bout Business Podcast dropping Friday morning at GambLou.com. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the fights!
