UFC 319 Predictions Du Plessis vs. Chimaev:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 319 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 1-4, -3 Units (-60% ROI)
Since 2020: 734-712 (+182.06 Units, 10.44% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 8-4 (66.667%)
Article History: 457-292-1 (61.01%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Dricus Du Plessis (+215) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-265)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
Middleweight Championship
Early in his UFC career, I had extremely low expectations for Dricus Du Plessis. He was awkward in his stand-up, he was stiff when defending takedowns, and his cardio was a question. Now I have more faith in him than anyone else in the division. Every time he enters the cage, fans know exactly what they are going to get. His toughness stands out in a sport filled with the toughest athletes. His cardio was once a question, but now it’s an answer. He went five rounds with Sean Strickland twice and won both fights. He peaked in the fourth round versus Israel Adesanya, winning via rear-naked choke. He has four UFC knockout victories, including wins against Robert Whittaker and Derek Brunson. He lands significant strikes at a high rate of 6.12 per minute. Defensively, he avoids 54% of his opponent’s significant strike attempts, but he does get hit 4.9 times per minute, which is a bit higher than you’d expect from a champion. But his well-rounded game is one of his best assets. He takes down opponents 2.55 per 15 minutes in the cage and averages 0.7 sub attempts in the same time frame. I thought Dricus Du Plessis would be just another guy when he entered the organization. At this point, I consider him one of the greatest we have seen in the division.
Khamzat Chimaev has been one of the highest valued prospects in the division since he debuted in July 2020. He wasted no time acquainting himself with UFC fans. After his debut knockout, he fought again 10 days later and again won via first-round knockout. He then fought again two months later and won via first-round submission. He is 14-0 as a pro, 8-0 in the UFC and has an 86% career finish rate. Most recently, he fought former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker in October of last year. He won via a jaw-busting face crank submission in the first round. His entire UFC career has been completely different than that of Dricus Du Plessis. Since he first entered the cage, his eventual title shot seemed like an inevitability. He lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute with a 58% accuracy rate. He absorbs just 3.25 significant strikes per minute. However, his significant strike defense rate is a dangerously low 41%. His takedown defense rate is 100% and he lands 4.31 per 15 minutes in the cage. But his takedown accuracy is just 46% which speaks to how dedicated he is to an all-out grappling strategy.
Khamzat Chimaev has generally performed well, but there have been some fights that have revealed vulnerabilities in his game. In April of 2022, he fought Gilbert Burns down at welterweight. Chimaev was unable to get the veteran out in the first round and slowed down considerably in the second, losing that on all three of the judges’ scorecards. The third round was close, and Gilbert Burns actually landed one more significant strike. But the results were 29-28 Chimaev across the board. In December of 2023, he fought Kamaru Usman, who took the fight on short notice and came up to middleweight to do it. Chimaev was aggressive early, per usual, and was even awarded a 10-8 round on one scorecard. But once again, the veteran was able to find his balance and win a round on each of the judges’ cards. It is no stretch to say that if that fight had gone five rounds, Chimaev would have probably faced his first loss. This is a five-round fight, and Dricus Du Plessis is no stranger to turning the tide of a fight in the championship rounds.
Dricus Du Plessis is 9-0 in the UFC and 23-2 as a pro. His first fight with Sean Strickland was probably the closest of his UFC career. He struggled defensively but made up for Strickland’s volume by landing the harder shots. It is tough to play that game with someone as explosive as Chimaev. Additionally, his two losses were via KO, albeit several years ago, when Du Plessis was a young and raw fighter facing MMA veterans. Additionally, he was on some shaky footing versus Darren Till before forcing the fight to the ground, where he found the submission. But he has fought wrestlers. Derek Brunson was at one point one of the most dominant in the division, and Du Plessis’ brute strength wore him out.
Chimaev wearing the strap has felt like an inevitability since his first UFC fight. Du Plessis being the champion felt like it would never happen. Chimaev has been a favorite of -230 or more in each of his UFC fights. Du Plessis has been an underdog in two of his last four fights. Chimaev is explosive and flashy. Du Plessis has a god-given strength that surprises his opponents. Chimaev weighed in at 183 pounds, Du Plessis was at the 185-pound limit. Chimaev is one inch taller, but Du Plessis has a one-inch reach advantage. If you want to bet on Chimaev, you need to bet on him to win in the first two rounds because if it goes longer, he will be tested like he has never been tested before. I do not want to bet on Chimaev. I do not think he should be this big of a favorite versus the 185 fire hydrant that is Dricus Du Plessis. I like Du Plessis to win because he will be strong in the third, fourth, and fifth round. I don’t think Chimaev will end the fight early, but I do think he could look good early, which could yield an even better live bet price on DDP.
FIGHT WINNER: Dricus Du Plessis
UFC 319 BEST BET: Dricus Du Plessis (+215) vs Chimaev, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15
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Lerone Murphy (+150) vs. Aaron Pico (-180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Featherweight
Lerone Murphy has been stacking wins against progressively tougher opponents since his UFC debut. His last three fights have been career-defining decisions over veterans Edson Barboza, Dan Ige, and Josh Emmett. He outlanded all three of those opponents. Versus Emmett and Barboza, he landed over twice as many strikes as he absorbed. He is an accurate striker at 54%, but more importantly, his defense rate is 61%. He has used takedowns versus opponents who struggle with grappling, but that is probably not going to be the best path versus Pico.
Aaron Pico was a wrestling prodigy who decided to skip out on pursuing Olympic Gold to go pro in mixed martial arts. With great fanfare, he signed with Bellator and lost his debut via Guillotine in 24 seconds. He proceeded to lose three more fights in the organization as a big favorite and now boasts a 12-4 professional record. He has never fought outside of the confines of an event that had Bellator in the title. The UFC seems happy to have Pico in the fold, but I am not sure he is ready to rise to this moment. He is explosive and has a career’s worth of highlights at just 28 years old. But he will be the shorter fighter in the cage and give up 2.5 inches in reach. I think Lerone Murphy will get taken down, but I don’t think he will stay down, and I think his striking will truly shine.
FIGHT WINNER: Lerone Murphy
UFC 319 BEST BET: Lerone Murphy (+150) vs Pico. Risk 1 Unit to WIn 1.5
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Geoff Neal (+180) vs. Carlos Prates (-218)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)
Welterweight
Geoff Neal has been a welterweight stalwart for nearly a decade. He has fought the best in the division and has lived up to his “Handz of Steel” moniker more often than not. He is 8-4 in the organization with five wins via knockout. He defeated Rafael dos Anjos last October after two tough fights against Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry. He lands 5.05 significant strikes per minute, but his differential is actually -0.39. He rarely uses grappling and prefers to fight standing.
Carlos Prates is a kickboxer who has quickly become one of the most popular fighters in the UFC. He won his first four fights via spectacular knockout. However, he lost his last fight against Ian Machado Garry. Garry was able to land takedowns and use footwork to avoid Prates’s devastating power. Despite being a pure striker, he has a -1.19 significant strike differential. He doesn’t fight with much pace, but instead tries to make his strikes count—a strategy that worked versus lower-level competition, but is a bit risky versus Geoff Neal.
Neal is just 1-2 in his last three fights, but I still think he his progressing. He looked very good versus Shavkat Rakhmonov before getting submitted late. Additionally, his split decision loss to Ian Garry was much closer than Prates’s bout. I think Prates will use his reach to try to pick Neal apart outside. Neal has never been knocked out in the UFC and has a solid chin. He is not afraid to close distance and turn a technical kickboxing match into dirty boxing. I am not sure how high Carlos Prates can rise in the organization. His ceiling may be knocking out fighters outside of the top 15. That being said, he could have learned from his humbling defeat to Garry, and perhaps he will push the pace more. I am really torn on this fight, and I think Geoff Neal’s experience could be the difference.
FIGHT WINNER: Geoff Neal
UFC 319 BEST BET: Pass
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Jared Cannonier (+180) vs. Michael “Venom” Page (-218)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Middleweight
Jared Cannonier just keeps showing up. He is 11-8 in the UFC but has fought the very best in the division. He has fought for a title and also fought the next generation of contenders in Caio Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov. He is 41 years old, but as I have said before, a 41-year-old Jared Cannonier is tougher, stronger, and more athletic than most fighters 10 years his junior. He still can eat a punch and land one much harder, as evidenced by his come-from-behind victory versus Gregory Rodrigues in February.
Michael Page was 17-2 in Bellator before making the leap to the UFC. He is 2-1 in the organization after losing a decision to Ian Garry down at welterweight. Garry was able to use takedowns to win the fight and neutralize Page’s explosive karate style strikes. That being said, Page rebounded to upset the surging Shara Magomedov. No one can stand and trade with Page, and his takedown defense will be the most important aspect of this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Michael Page
UFC 319 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Tim Elliott (+240) vs. Kai Asakura (-298)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Flyweight
Tim Elliott has been exciting UFC fans since he debuted on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016. He has fought the best in the division and, as such, has more losses than victories. His tricky grappling style makes him a tough test for virtually any opponent. He finds submissions that are unique to himself. He gets taken down, but once the fight is on the mat, he is most comfortable. His striking is a real liability.
Kai Asakura has fought once in the UFC, a loss to Alexandre Pantoja, a rare debut/title fight combo. He has some nice wins versus fighters who have fought in top organizations in Juan Archuleta and Kyoji Horiguchi. He also lost a fight to Manel Kape in 2019. I am still not sure about Horiguchi’s abilities in this division. Alexandre Pantoja is tough to measure against. I understand that he is more explosive than Elliott and will have a massive striking advantage, but I cannot trust him with my money yet.
FIGHT WINNER: Kai Asakura
UFC 319 BEST BET: Pass
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Baisangur Susurkaev (-950) vs. Eric Nolan (+625)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+150) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-195)
Middleweight
Baisangur Susurkaev is making history just by walking to the cage for this fight. On Tuesday, he fought in the Contender Series in Las Vegas. He won via knockout in the first round. Hopped on a plane and is now taking a fight in Chicago. He is 9-0 with eight wins via knockout. He is an exciting fighter who will immediately go into the annals of UFC history if he delivers as a massive favorite. Prior to the UFC, he fought in Europe, but his strength of schedule is less than sterling. But the UFC is taking a risk with him for a reason.
Eric Nolan is 8-3 as a pro and last fought in May. He won the Cage Fury welterweight championship via first-round knockout. He has a 75% finish rate and is joining the UFC 319 card to put on a show. He has four career wins via knockout and two via submission, indicating that he may have an advantage if the fight reaches the ground. His opponent is from Russia, which generally means they have some grappling acumen.
FIGHT WINNER: Baisangur Susurkaev
UFC 319 BEST BET: Pass
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Gerald Meerschaert (+180) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (-218)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-135)
Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert has 56 professional fights under his belt, putting him in rare air. He is 12-11 in the UFC with 100% of his wins coming via finish. He is one of the best grapplers in the organization and has 29 submission wins as a professional. His standup game is usually his downfall, but when he gets strikers to the ground, he usually is able to finish the fight.
Michal Oleksiejczuk is the complete opposite of Meerschaert. He is a talented striker with an 8-7 UFC record. Seven of his UFC wins have come via knockout. But five of his losses have come via submission. He has a clear game plan in this fight: avoid the takedown, keep the distance, and pick Meerschaert apart. I think Meerschaert is a live dog in this fight because he will get it to the ground.
FIGHT WINNER: Gerald Meerschaert
UFC 319 BEST BET: Gerald Meerschaert to Win via Submission (+400) vs Oleksiejczuk
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Jessica Andrade (+120) vs .Lupita Godinez (-142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)
Women’s Strawweight
Jessica Andrade is back to fighting at strawweight after back-to-back losses in the flyweight division. She is a good striker and is perhaps too aggressive for her own good. That being said, nine of her 17 UFC victories have come via finish. She can get exposed on the ground with submissions, and her takedown defense will be tested in this fight.
Loopy Godinez is one of the easiest fighters to root for in women’s mixed martial arts. She isn’t flashy but fights hard and weaponizes cardio to turn fights in the latter rounds. She has two submission victories in eight wins in the organization, but generally, she does not have finishing potential with her hands. She will want to get this fight to the ground and use position over submission to ride her way to victory.
FIGHT WINNER: Lupita Godinez
UFC 319 BEST BET: Pass
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Alexander Hernandez (+260) vs. Chase Hooper (-325)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez has gotten back to winning after a tough streak. He has won two in a row and has gone the distance both times, which answers some questions about the cardio issues he faced earlier in his career. He is explosive and a good striker, but hasn’t won via knockout in four years. His striking accuracy is just 40% and he eats more strikes than he lands.
Chase Hooper is a fighter who has truly grown up in front of the fans. He is just 25 years old and is 16-3-1 as a professional. He is 8-3 in the UFC but on a five-fight win streak. Early in his career, he was not much of a mixed martial artist. He tried to win solely with jiu jitsu, and it backfired. Now he has developed and is becoming well-rounded. Grappling is still his strength, but his striking has made huge strides. I think he is in a much better place right now than Alex Hernandez and will get the fight to his wheelhouse.
FIGHT WINNER: Chase Hooper
UFC 319 BEST BET: Parlay: Chase Hooper/Michael Page (-111). Risk 1.11 Units to Win 1
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Edson Barboza (-130) vs. Drakkar Klose (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Lightweight
Edson Barboza has been in the UFC for 15 years. He owns some of the most viral knockouts in the organization’s history, but Father Time can not be knocked out. Barboza is 39 years old. Two fights ago, he looked like he had found the fountain of youth in a decision win versus Sodiq Yusuff. In his last fight, he looked like Methuselah versus Lerone Murphy. Which version will we see here? And will he be able to stop takedown attempts?
Drakkar Klose is no spring chicken at 37 years old. He is 9-3 in the UFC and has been in the organization for eight years. He was knocked out in his last fight against the surging Joel Alvarez. But prior to that, he was on a four-fight win streak. He has not won as an underdog since 2018, but this fight is hard to call because both fighters are diminished versions of the fighters they were in their prime.
FIGHT WINNER: Edson Barboza
UFC 319 BEST BET: Pass
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Karine Silva (-205) vs Dione Barbosa (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Women’s Flyweight
Karine Silva was 4-0 in the UFC until she lost a decision to Viviane Araujo last November. In that fight, she threw lots of striking volume, but her accuracy was not good enough. Additionally, she was just 1/7 on takedown attempts, which did not impress the judges. Her striking defense also leaves a lot to be desired. I’m not sure that will matter versus Dione Barbosa. Barbosa is 2-1 in the UFC, but her victories are against the bottom of the flyweight division. She tries to grapple and falls behind in the striking department. I do not give her a grappling advantage versus Silva, and I expect her to fall behind standing.
FIGHT WINNER: Karine Silva
UFC 319 BEST BET: Pass
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Alibi Idiris (-500) vs Joseph Morales (+380)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Flyweight
Alibi Idiris is making his UFC debut after back-to-back highlight knockouts on the regional scene. He is 10-0 as a pro and has exclusively fought in Kazakhstan’s Naiza FC. Joseph Morales is returning to the UFC after going 1-2 in 2017-2018. He returned to the regional scene and has won three fights in a row. His experience cannot be dismissed, but this is a tough fight for his return to the big show. I expect this to be a hard-fought fight, and an upset is not out of the question.
FIGHT WINNER: Alibi Idiris
UFC 319 BEST BET: Pass
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UFC 319 BEST BETS RECAP
- Dricus Du Plessis (+215) vs Chimaev, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15
- Lerone Murphy (+150) vs Pico. Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.5
- Gerald Meerschaert to Win via Submission (+400) vs Oleksiejczuk
- Chase Hooper/Michael Page (-111). Risk 1.11 Units to Win 1
