UFC 320 Predictions Ankalaev vs. Pereira:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 320 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
ALL ODDS VIA DRAFTKINGS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
MAIN EVENT
Magomed Ankalaev (-270) vs. Alex Pereira (+220)
Over 3.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 3.5 Rounds (+114)
Light Heavyweight Championship
This rematch was inevitable, if not in demand. The first bout was a perfect showcase of champion Magomed Ankalaev’s highly technical skills. He can strike with anyone, but has wrestling chops to keep true kickboxers like Alex Pereira honest. On paper, these guys in the ring should be must-see TV, but for whatever reason, the first fight was relatively low action. I don’t necessarily fault Ankalaev for that. It was perhaps the most cautious we have ever seen Alex Pereira in the Octagon. But the reluctance is justified. Ankalaev has picture-perfect technique and knows how to execute a game plan to keep even the most dangerous opponents on the back foot. The biggest criticism of Ankalaev is that he tends to do just enough to win, and not go all in on finding the highlight finish. He prioritizes defense over offense and, as such, only gets hit 2.46 times per minute in the cage while holding onto a +1.2 significant strike differential. His relative lack of high UFC finishes (two knockouts in his last nine trips to the cage) is the result of not facing opponents who will charge in haphazardly, but that further speaks to the power Ankalaev possesses. Even the best fighters in the world are afraid to fight the crisp striking Russian in a phone booth.
Alex Pereira’s rise to UFC prominence was pure cinema. A kickboxer with a chip on his shoulder, trying to chase down a belt versus an opponent with whom he had bad blood (Israel Adesanya). We saw that matchup of former kickboxers twice, with the results being split knockouts for each before Pereira went on a god like run in the light heavyweight division. He made his name by being fearless, lightning quick, and possessing the most power in the division. He has gotten better at grappling and grappling defense. Ankalaev went 0/12 in takedown attempts when the men fought in March. But it felt like he spent so much effort with a perfect takedown defense game plan that he forgot to showcase the skills that got him to the big show. His counter hooks, his leg kicks, and his willingness to step into the fire. Pereira is now 38 years old. He has had a good run, and this could be his last dance.
Despite the first matchup between these men ending in a fairly straightforward decision, there are some statistics that indicate the result could have been a bit different if a few key strikes by Pereira had landed. Going 0/12 on takedowns is rarely a stat line we see from winning fighters. Additionally, Pereira actually landed 55% of his significant strike attempts compared to Ankalaev’s 52%. The big difference in this fight was volume and cage control. Overall, Ankalaev landed 18 more strikes, but was on the front foot more often than not. Ankalaev also amassed 5:42 of control time to Pereira’s 0:00. The whole fight was very clean and was much closer to the game plan Ankalaev wanted than what Pereira envisioned. I think Pereira is going to fight like his career depends on it and will step into the fire. I think he realizes that playing the positioning game will not get him far versus Ankalaev. He needs to eat some shots to try to land his own. But Ankalaev is not going to be easy to deal with. He has seen the tape, he knows how Pereira sets up his big shots, and he had clinical head strike defense the first time they fought (avoiding 46/57 head strikes thrown). I expect this to be a much more frenzied fight, and I think Ankalaev’s technique will be the difference once again. That said, I expect this fight to end due to referee intervention, and Pereira always has a puncher’s chance.
FIGHT WINNER: Magomed Ankalaev
UFC 320 BEST BET: Ankalaev/Pereira UNDER 3.5 Rounds (+115), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
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Merab Dvalishvili (-425) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+330)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-360) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+260)
Bantamweight Championship
This is Merab Dvalishvili’s “Is there no one else?” moment. He is on a 13-fight win streak and has not been in a close fight in about 8 years. He has defeated four former UFC champions and looked good doing it. He has the best cardio in the organization. He gets stronger the deeper the fight goes, and he employs a style of wrestling that could not be more difficult to deal with. He doesn’t take down opponents and hold them there… he makes them get back up… then takes them down again immediately. He constantly attacks the gas tank and he constantly gasses opponents. He is not a powerful striker. He is not a grappling ace. It feels like he only finishes opponents when they are totally broken and looking for a way out. He is the machine and he breaks everyone.
Cory Sandhagen is the prototypical bantamweight champion. He has outlier length for the division at 5’11” and holds a 70-inch reach. He has a wrestling base, jiu-jitsu skills, and power that cannot be denied (6 knockouts in 11 UFC wins). That being said, Sandhagen never made the transition from prospect to champion; instead, he fell into a gatekeeper role. However, availability is an ability all of its own, and Sandhagen is the best available for this title shot because Merab has broken everyone else. Sandhagen provides a unique challenge due to his height, but Sean O’Malley is also tall, and it didn’t slow down the champion at all. Sandhagen can wrestle, but the champion has outgrappled him much better, and Sandhagen is powerful. Merab’s chin is rock solid.
I do not see a path to victory here for Sandhagen unless Merab didn’t have a fight camp, and even then, I think his residual fitness levels would allow him to grind five rounds no problem. This fight is happening because there is no one else. There is only one result to consider: Merab winning in dominant fashion.
FIGHT WINNER: Merab Dvalishvili
UFC 320 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Jiri Prochazka (-205) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr (+170)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Light Heavyweight
Jiri Prochazka is a former champion who probably can fight for the belt next if he takes care of business.. He lost his hardware to Pereira, but has never fought Magomed Ankalaev. Carlos Ulberg is going to fight the winner of the UFC 320 main event, and if Prochazka is patient, he has to be the choice to fight the winner of that matchup. Prochazka will be at risk versus Rountree. Jiri fights like he is in an action movie. All forward momentum, all power strikes, and very little head movement. Khalil Rountree Jr is one of the hardest punchers in the organization and can catch an opponent who gets overzealous with aggression. That being said I don’t think Rountree Jr’s Muay Thai style will be anything that Prochazka hasn’t shared the cage with before, and I think Prochazka’s variety of skills will win the day. Like the main event, both of these men have power, and the margin for error will be small, but I truly believe Prochazka is a top 4 light heavyweight in the world, and Rountree Jr is closer to the top 14.
FIGHT WINNER: Jiri Prochazka
UFC 320 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Josh Emmett (+340) vs. Youssef Zalal (-440)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Featherweight
Josh Emmett has been on the cusp of a title shot for a long time. Unfortunately for him, in this game, you can’t do anything for a long time without missing your window. Emmett is now 40 years old, still ripped, still powerful, but has lost three of his last four fights. That said, his win was a devastating knockout versus Bryce Mitchell, and his three losses have come against three of the best in the division: Lerone Murphy, Yair Rodriguez, and Ilia Topuria. It should be noted that Topuria went on to knock out three Hall of Famers and former champions in Alex Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira after Emmett pushed him to a decision. Emmett was a bit of a late bloomer and did not get into the UFC until deep into his 30s. He is still operating near his full potential.
Youssef Zalal is a feel-good story of perseverance. He went 3-3-1 in the UFC in 2020-2022 and was cut from the organization after failing to secure a single finish. He went on a rampage in the regional scene before returning to the UFC in 2024. He has gone 5-0 since returning and finished his first four opponents on the comeback tour. That said, in February versus Calvin Kattar, he was potentially fighting more not to lose than to cement another highlight finish. I worry that if he tries to play keep away from Emmett, he will not succeed in scoring enough to get his hand raised. When Emmett lands, it does damage, and peppering a few jabs a round while looking for the clinch could make things interesting on the scorecards. Zalal is still improving and still has the potential to go far in this division. I just don’t like him at this price at all.
FIGHT WINNER: Josh Emmett
UFC 320 BEST BET: Josh Emmett (+440) vs Zalal, Risk 1 Unit to Win 4.4
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Joe Pyfer (-245) vs. Abus Magomedov (+200)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Middleweight
Joe Pyfer has been a popular fighter since joining the organization, as he is dedicated to putting on a show for the fans. He is 5-1 in the UFC with four wins via finish. His loss was humbling, a main event billing as a big favorite against the veteran Jack Hermansson, and he did not pass go. Hermansson used veteran savvy to wrestle and control Pyfer on his way to victory. Magomedov entered the UFC with a reputation as a finisher, but he has more recently relied on his grappling skills. The Russian-German is on a three-fight win streak largely because he has dominated control time. He has had legitimate physical advantages over all three of those opponents. I think Pyfer is too big and too strong to be controlled, and I think that Magomedov’s grappling game has already hit its ceiling in the organization.
FIGHT WINNER: Joe Pyfer
UFC 320 BEST BET: Parlay: Joe Pyfer/Jiri Prochazka (+108), Risk 1.08 Units to Win 1
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Ateba Gautier (-1650) vs. Tre’ston Vines (+950)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+450) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-650)
Middleweight
Ateba Gautier is a bad dude. He is just 23 years old and 8-1 as a pro. In the UFC, he is 2-0 with two first-round knockouts. He has fought more experienced opponents with more wide-ranging skill sets than Gautier’s lightning-in-his-hands style. It hasn’t mattered; he has run through them. Tre’ston Vines is taking this fight on short notice, so he has absolutely nothing to lose. He is 10-3 as a pro with all three losses coming via KO in much lower organizations. He is going to have to get lucky to win this one, and I am not going to step in front of the Gautier train again.
FIGHT WINNER: Ateba Gautier
UFC 320 BEST BET: Pass
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Daniel Santos (-148) vs. Joo Sang Yoo (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Catchweight (153 LBs)
Daniel Santos is 3-1 in the UFC. He started his career as a bantamweight but moved up to featherweight in his last bout and was able to secure a decision win. Yoo has been a featherweight for most of his career and is making his UFC debut on relatively short notice. Santos was supposed to fight Doo Hoo Choi last week, but an injury cancelled that bout, which is why we are here trying to handicap this peculiar bout. Yoo’s strength of schedule is weak, but his record is not at 9-0. There are too many variables for me in this fight to make an official bet.
FIGHT WINNER: Joo Sang Yoo
UFC 320 BEST BET: Pass
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Patchy Mix (-325) vs. Jakub Wilacz (+260)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Bantamweight
Patchy Mix jumped over to the UFC from Bellator with title aspirations. He fell flat in his organizational debut, getting completely dominated in a decision loss to Mario Bautista. He now finds himself on a UFC undercard, taking on a former KSW champion making his debut in the organization. Mix has fought much stiffer competition, and at one point, I thought he would contend for the UFC belt. To do that, he will need to change the narrative and take care of this title holder. Like Mix, Wilacz has won the majority of his fights via submission. I think that this will be a high-level grappling match, but I think Mix’s fluidity in transition will make the difference.
FIGHT WINNER: Patchy Mix
UFC 320 BEST BET: Pass
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Edmen Shahbazyan (-325) vs. Andre Muniz (+260)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-130)
Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan feels like he has been in the UFC for 27 years, but he is actually just 27 years old. He is 8-5 in the organization, a dynamic finisher, but has a bad gas tank and suspect fight IQ. Andre Muniz is 6-3 in the UFC but has lost 3 of his last four fights. He is a solid grappler, but his striking game will always be his downfall. If he gets the fight to the ground in round 2 or 3, he should be able to find one of his trademark submissions. If he tries to stand and kickbox, he will get knocked out. I think these odds are a bit too strong on Shahbazyan, and it appears his hype train is fully on the tracks, but I have little faith in Andre Muniz, either.
FIGHT WINNER: Edmen Shahbazyan
UFC 320 BEST BET: Pass
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Punahele Soriano (-325) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+260)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+145)
Welterweight
Punahele Soriano looked like he was on his way out of the UFC, but back-to-back wins as a big underdog have kept him in the mix. The 32-year-old is peaking at the right time and is in a good spot to continue his win streak. He has nine fights in the organization and a well-rounded game that keeps opponents honest. His power is devastating, and he specializes in punishing aggressive opponents. Veretennikov is lucky to still be in the UFC after some very poor sportsmanship after getting knocked out by Austin Vanderford. That said, he rebounded and edged out a division versus the undersized Francisco Prado. I think Punahele Soriano is better in all facets of fighting and has a good shot to land a knockout blow.
FIGHT WINNER: Punahele Soriano
UFC 320 BEST BET: Parlay piece, see below
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Macy Chiasson (-198) vs. Yana Santos (+164)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Women’s Bantamweight
These two women have been around for seemingly forever, and frankly, I am ready for the division to move on. Chiasson has had repeated weight and injury issues. Santos has struggled with consistency over her 11 UFC bouts. It is a bit surprising the two veterans have never met, but that may also have to do with matchmaking. This projects as a slogging fight with points being at a premium. In theory, Chiasson’s grappling should be an x factor here, but having that x factor in her back pocket has not prevented her from losing as a favorite in the past.
FIGHT WINNER: Macy Chiasson
UFC 320 BEST BET: Pass
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Chris Gutierrez (+370) vs Farid Basharat (-485)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Bantamweight
Chris Gutierrez is a well-respected fighter, but he surprisingly has very little power for such a crisp striker. He has not won via knockout since 2022 and struggles with fighters who are willing to close space and negate the power of his leg kicks. Farid Basharat is 13-0 as a pro and a grappling ace. The Afghani fighter specializes in getting opponents to the ground and keeping them there. He has landed multiple takedowns in all four of his UFC fights, and he will test Gutierrez’s takedown defense early and often. I think that he will control the fight on the ground on his way to a decision victory.
FIGHT WINNER: Farid Basharat
UFC 320 BEST BET: Parlay: Merab Dvalishvili/Punahele Soriano/Farid Basharat (-105), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
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Ramiz Brahimaj (+240) vs Austin Vanderford (-298)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+200)
Welterweight
Ramiz Brahimaj has rejuvenated his career on the back of two first-round finishes. He was perhaps on his way out of the organization, but he has found a way to round out his skills. He is always a grappling threat, but now has a knockout victory to his name. He is 4-3 in the UFC and has had an injury-plagued career. Now he is 32 and living up to his full potential. Austin Vanderford had a good career in Bellator before signing with the UFC. He won his UFC debut via ground and pound in February and will have a very tough task in this matchup. Vanderford is a wrestling specialist, but versus Brahimaj, I expect that path to be difficult. Vanderford once fought for a Bellator belt, but was quickly knocked out by Gegard Mousasi. He has some notoriety as the husband to the infamous Paige VanZant, and I think that may be affecting this line. Brahimaj is too good to be this big of a dog.
FIGHT WINNER: Ramiz Brahimaj
UFC 320 BEST BET: Ramiz Brahimaj (+240) vs Vanderford, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.4
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Veronica Hardy (-700) vs. Brogan Walker (+500)
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Veronica Hardy was riding a wave of momentum before her last fight versus Eduarda Moura. Her three-fight win streak ended as the relative UFC newcomer was able to edge out a decision. Hardy is best when fighting with aggression, and that will be key in this matchup. Brogan Walker is 36 years old and 0-2 in the UFC. She is a bit of a fish out of water in the organization and has not fared well versus mediocre UFC competition. These odds are a bit long for a fight that likely goes to the scorecards.
FIGHT WINNER: Veronica Hardy
UFC 320 BEST BET: PASS
UFC 320 BEST BETS RECAP:
- Ankalaev/Pereira UNDER 3.5 Rounds (+115), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
- Josh Emmett (+440) vs Zalal, Risk 1 Unit to Win 4.4
- Parlay: Joe Pyfer/Jiri Prochazka (+108), Risk 1.08 Units to Win 1
- Parlay: Merab Dvailshivili/Punahele Soriano/Farid Basharat (-105), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
- Ramiz Brahimaj (+240) vs Vanderford, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.4
