UFC 321 Predictions:
UFC 321 takes place Saturday from Abu Dhabi, UAE. Fourteen fights are scheduled to be waged in front of a full house of area fight fans looking to cheer local and regional fighters to victory.
The large 30-foot cage will be in use. Of the fourteen fights, four take place at 170 pounds or above. Three of those larger-bodied brawls will be waged on the main card.
This event features athletes from every corner of the world who will convene in Abu Dhabi to try to earn themselves a victory, some bonus money, and, for the four fighters in the co-main events, hopefully a title!
There are six battles where there exists a five-year age difference (or greater) between combatants. A youthful edge of at least five years or more delivers a 60+ percent win percentage to the younger athlete based on UFC fight history. Understanding each athlete’s fight weaponry is critical in predicting fight outcomes. One also needs to be aware of each fighter’s age and country of origin because the Muslim combatants will be the fighters that draw the support of this Abu Dhabi crowd.
Finally, these fights drop earlier than usual as preliminary action starts at 7 a.m. PT with the main card dropping at 11 a.m. PT.
Tom Aspinall -380 vs. Cyril Gane +325
Heavyweight Championship (265 pounds) Main Event
The number one-ranked French heavyweight Cyril Gane faces the undisputed heavyweight champion, England’s Tom Aspinall.
This will be the second title opportunity for Gane and one in which the formidable French fighter will look to improve upon his first title opportunity, a loss in the first round to then-champion Jon Jones.
The strength of Gane’s fighting is based on his tremendous athleticism, which manifests itself in his deft footwork, precision striking/kicking, and his ability to avoid his opponent’s strikes.
Gane last competed in December of 2024 against Alexander Volkov in a fight this handicapper and many others believe that Volkov won convincingly, only to have the decision go to the Frenchman. Welcome to the UFC being owned by an entertainment company!
In this title fight, Gane will have the benefit of that previous championship experience, which will prepare him to compete more effectively than in his first opportunity, despite the fact that he arrives here off a dubious decision win in his last fight almost one year ago.
Gane’s going to require this fight to remain on the feet. His fighting specialty is Muay Thai striking, which complements his tremendous athleticism. Gane moves with great fluidity in the octagon while simultaneously being able to deliver numbing kicks, snappy straight jabs, and combinations with great precision and effect. The larger 30-foot cage here is surely a benefit to his fighting style.
Tom Aspinall is an English athlete grounded in catch wrestling and boxing. At a young age, he discovered BJJ, for which he now sports a black belt.
Aspinall’s a true heavyweight when it comes to size/power/might. While he may not be as nimble and fluid afoot as Gane, he is extremely athletic, able to effectively cut the cage on opponents that do move well and in the clasp, against the fence, and eventually on the canvas.
Once this fight begins, it will be Gane who will try to pick and peck at the incoming English grappler. Gane’s plan must be to keep this fight standing at all costs. No matter what Gane says about his improvement in the BJJ/grappling/wrestling department, make little mistake that his grappling/wrestling ability pales in comparison to Aspinall’s world-class mastery.
On the feet, this fight takes on a much more competitive tone, which is why I believe it will take little time for Aspinall to transition this fight into his desired territory: the clinch, the cage press, and ultimately to the floor for a drubbing.
Gane’s striking and power must be respected here, but Aspinall, who has been stiff-armed by the repeated evasion tactics of Jon Jones, will be pent up enough to use his frustration and focused might to attack Gane and earn victory in a decisive manner.
Aspinall’s career has essentially been put on hold as he tried in vain to share the cage with the original GOAT of the UFC, a now aged and evasive Jon Jones, but now as undisputed Champion, Aspinall turns his attention to becoming the most decorated heavyweight fighter in the history of the UFC. I believe he has the tools to accomplish this.
Aspinall via domination.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -190
Mackenzie Dern -160 vs. Virna Jandiroba +140
Women’s Flyweight Championship (125 pounds)
This is a rematch of a 2020 fight where Dern earned a victory over Jandiroba via decision.
Then, Jandiroba was beginning her UFC career and had achieved success against mid-tier female fighters, but she struggled to beat ranked flyweights.
Since her loss to Dern, she’s rolled off a 6-1 record, losing only to Amanda Ribas, another Brazilian mixed martial artist.
At her base, Jandiroba is a world-class BJJ practitioner. Her striking lacks speed, power and precision, and is used only to position her into making attempts at the clinch in order to transition any fight from feet to clinch to cage, then floor.
In Mackenzie Dern, we have another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant. However, Dern’s abilities were groomed since infancy as she is the daughter of BJJ legend Wellington Diaz. When Dern was in diapers, her pedigree in BJJ already stood out, without mentioning how capable she is now in her prime at 32 years old.
Dern’s striking, once a substantial deficit for her in fights, has greatly improved after years with striking coach Jason Parillo. When this fight is on the feet, the edge will be hers, so I look for Jandiroba to initiate a grappling contest as soon as practically possible.
Once this fight starts, it will be fascinating to see how quickly each woman chooses to fight the other at their forte, BJJ. Jandiroba will have to rush to get inside position and force Dern into the grapple. Dern must display athleticism and striking aptitude to be able to fend off the incoming Jandiroba to keep her on the outside, which will allow Dern the ability to decide when she wants to mix in some grappling with her striking in order to mix it up on the talented Jandiroba.
Ultimately, Dern’s youth advantage of five years, coupled with the confidence of knowing that she defeated Jandiroba before she had developed her repertoire of mixed martial arts weaponry, namely striking, will allow her to fold both skills into this fight, leaving Jandiroba armed with a singular approach to earning victory in this matchup.
The world-class BJJ prowess of each woman may cancel each other out, forcing the more skilled mixed martial artist to enlist complementary tactics (striking), a skill Dern possesses.
Dern’s world-class pedigree and the evolution of her striking game, coupled with the fact that she’s competed against a more diverse and respected set of opponents, position her logically as the favorite in this fight.
Total in this battle: 4.5 Rds Over -125
Jose Delgado -145 vs. Nathaniel Wood +125
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Wood, an Englishman with a world-class BJJ base, is the fighter in this bout who will sport advantages in cage experience and level of competition faced, two aspects of the fight game I regard as most important.
Wood’s BJJ is complemented by his wrestling/takedown ability, and his move up in weight class to the featherweight division several fights ago has seen him realize tremendous returns. He has realized a 5-1 tally since moving on up!
Wood happens to be a smaller featherweight, and his striking is not at the level of his BJJ. However, Woo has competed against great talent, and he’ll do all he can to navigate this fight by focusing on his wrestling/BJJ prowess rather than his lack of striking ability.
Jose Delgado is a special talent. Fighting out of the MMALab in Phoenix, AZ. Delgado will sport dynamic physical advantages. He’s five inches the taller man, he’s five years the younger combatant, and he’ll own a four-inch reach advantage with his arms and two inches with his legs.
Delgado trains with a team of world-class competitors, all of whom compete from 135 to 170 pounds. So Delgado is cutting his teeth training with world-class UFC fighters like O’Malley, Bautista, McGhee, and Phillips.
Once this fight begins, it will be Delgado who will use his massive size and fluidity of movement to keep Wood on the end of his strikes/kicks realizing that the kicking game may need to be cloaked, as he does not want to give Wood the easy chance to take him to the canvass for a roll by leaving a leg up in the air.
Delgado’s wrestling is keenly developed, and it is worthy of allowing him to compete on par with Wood, but why would he engage in a tight, close fight when he has a superior advantage standing?
Delgato will be making his first trip out of the country to fight, so there is much by way of fight experience that he will need to overcome, while Wood has already indoctrinated travel and its complexities for a fighter into his repertoire, so the stage is set.
An experienced, aggressive wrestler who has been in with the more formidable set of adversaries will face off against a young, large, fast, well-rounded ascending athlete looking to make a name for himself off of Wood.
What a compelling bout!
UFC 321 Best Bet: Jose Delgado -145, 1u
UFC 321 Best Bet: Delgado -145 parlay to Aspinall -380, 1u returns 1.12u
Friday morning, first thing, the ‘Bout Business Podcast with all my final releases for UFC 321 will be posted at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
