UFC Vegas 322 Predictions:
UFC 322 will be held in Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. The Mecca for generational, epic pugilistic battles through the decades.
A packed house will take in 28 fighters competing against one another to accelerate their career trajectories and earning power into 2026.
There are several fights where a greater than five-year age difference exists, which favors the younger combatants. Also, name recognition is higher as ranked and soon-to-be elite mixed martial artists face one another in what, in many cases, is an elimination fight.
Last week, I split releases for the second week in a row.
Digital profitability stands 22-29 -4.80u with enough events to get back to black starting with 322.
Islam Makhachev -265 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +235
Welterweight Championship (170 pounds)
Jack Della Maddalena is the current welterweight champion, having earned the title in his last battle where he dominated former champion Belal Muhammad (who decided to forgo his forte of wrestling and compete against JDM on the feet—a massive mistake). This was not only an unsound strategy, but it allowed JDM to dominate the wrestling-based Muhammad by consistently getting up from the takedown.
In this fight, JDM, a black belt in BJJ with a world-class boxing background, will not be fortunate enough to have an opponent who will fight him at JDM’s advantage.
JDM is the bona fide welterweight athlete. He cuts weight to make it through weigh-ins, and he is accustomed to welterweight power, might and size. JDM’s own size will be an adjustment for Makhachev, who holds a substantial size advantage over the lightweights but will be on par with Jack.
For Makhachev, an International Master of Sport in combat sambo and a black belt in Judo, the weight of the world is on his shoulders, being the next evolution of the Nurmagomedov wrestling dominance in the UFC.
Makhachev’s wrestling is the most dominant in the organization. His training at the hands of his cousin, lightweight GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov, will prepare Makhachev for everything JDM has to offer by way of fight arsenal.
Makhachev, the most feared wrestling-based mixed martial artist on the UFC roster, is also an accomplished striker. He will absolutely be willing to strike with JDM because his camp believes, as do I, that on the feet, this fight is even.
Eventually, we will see Makhachev transition into his advantage. That advantage is wrestling. He’ll clasp, hit the takedown, then drown JDM in the deep waters of Dagestani pressure. It’s Makhacev’s ability to dominate in the wrestling, which as soon as he decides to employ it, will put him at great advantage in this fight.
Fans are advertised to see a fascinating clash of styles, but what they may witness is a first-class wiping of the mat from Makhachev.
We’ll find out soon enough how complete the JDM wrestling acumen has become in this fight because his sole chance to win this fight is to be able to repel Makhachev’s takedown attempts to keep this fight waged on the feet.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Over -130
Valentina Shevchenko -135 vs. Weili Zhang +115
Women’s Flyweight Championship (125 pounds)
Chinese mixed martial artist Weili Zhang held the women’s strawweight championship twice in her career. Now, she makes the move up in weight class to face Russian fighter Valentina Shevchenko, a combatant as accomplished as any in MMA history.
At strawweight, Zhang faced every form of threat and defended her title numerous times and against every form of mixed martial arts threat: strikers, wrestlers, grapplers, and brawlers.
Zhang’s toughest tests came against Rose Namajunas, who beat Zhang twice. Namajunas had deft wrestling/grappling ability to go with effective striking and nimble footwork.
In previous bouts, it’s wrestling where Zhang’s mettle has been most tested, but she’s developed quickly in that art form and arrives at this flyweight challenge more than ready to try to address the dominance of the Russian Shevchenko.
Current flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko, 37, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column by themselves.
She is the 125-pound champion for a second time now and has defeated the who’s who in both the women’s bantamweight and flyweight divisions.
She now finds herself in another title test, this time at a weight division she’s ruled for years, but at 37, while the guile and savvy are certainly hers, quickness, power and might belong to her adversary.
What Zhang yearns to earn, and what she needs to solidify her claim to being on the women’s MMA Mount Rushmore, is that second title, but more impressively… a second title over the GOAT of women’s MMA, Ms. Shevchenko.
This is going to be one of the most dynamic and well-matched fights of the year, and I am looking forward to seeing if Zhang can defeat the decision machine that is Valentina Shevchenko and lay claim to defeating the woman currently regarded as the all-time GOAT of women’s UFC.
I believe in Zhang.
UFC 322 Best Bets: Weili Zhang +115 1u
Zhang Decision +200 1u
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -260
Bo Nickal -215 vs. Rodolfo Vieira +190
Middleweight (185 pounds)
This is what I mean when I say that we must be aware of these fight ‘situations.’ This ‘situation’ is relatively clear.
The UFC wants to manicure Bo Nickal and present the all-American, world-class wrestling talent with an advantageous path to success and popularity. Why? Because he puts butts in seats and sells the UFC!
One may only look as far as his placement on this main card after being decimated in his last fight by a man who basically quit on his stool in his last fight a month ago.
Nickal’s being matched with what looks like, on paper, a tough matchup, save for the fact that his opponent is slow as a glacier in his striking and movement, singularly dimensioned as a grappler and will be unable to engage Nickal, let alone drag him to the floor. This fight was made for Nickal to shine.
Parlay time.
UFC 322 Best Bet: Nickal -215/Makhachev -265 1u returns 1.02u
Total in the Nickal/Vieira fight: 2.5 Rds Over -150
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Catch all my UFC 322 releases there! Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
