UFC Vegas 323 Predictions:
UFC 323, the organization’s last remaining PPV event, takes place on Saturday. The 14-fight slate is scheduled for early prelim action beginning at 3 p.m. PT, prelims drop at 5 p.m. PT, and the main PPV portion of the fight card starts at 7 p.m. PT.
Only seven of the 28 athletes participating in this event are from the US, so viewers will watch an international set of athletes competing in Las Vegas.
This year, favorites are running a couple of points higher than the usual 63%. They stand 311-150-15 or 65.3%.
Last week we hit a nice parlay paying +2.05u, bringing this year’s digital tally to 24-30 -3.72u.
Time to earn!
Merab Dvalishvili -410 vs. Petr Yan +360
Bantamweight (135 pounds) Championship
Dvalishvili will face Yan in a rematch of a fight from 2023, where Merab dominated Yan in every way, shape, and form.
Dvalishvili’s wrestling is as good as any fighter in the organization, as is his cardiovascular dominance. Merab has decent hands that he employs to change up the visual of his unrelenting forward wrestling takedown pressure. Still, Dvalishvili, appropriately nicknamed ‘The Machine,’ is as high-energy a fighter as the organization has.
Dvalishvili’s dominance is founded on his ability to compete at 110% output for ten rounds, let alone five.
After defeating Yan via one-sided decision in 2023, Dvalishvili has gone on to dominate each of five world-class bantamweight mixed martial artists over the course of his last six bouts (he dominated the singularly dimensioned striker Sean O’Malley twice).
At this point in his evolution, Dvalishvili needs to remain mentally sharp and motivated because his tireless output inside the cage during fights is unequaled. He batters foes emotionally with his cardio.
In Russian mixed martial artist Petr Yan, we have what I regard as one of two legitimate threats to Dvalishvili’s title, the other being Umar Nurmagomedov, who Dvalishvili defeated this past January.
Yan’s boxing/striking is as world-class as Dvalishvili’s chain effect wrestling. Yan’s a highly decorated mixed martial artist himself as he holds a Master of Sport in Boxing, a Master of Sport in MMA, as well as a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
In the first fight between these two, Yan was effective with his striking, but his inability to fend off the unrelenting pressure of Dvalishvili’s wrestling made the difference in the fight.
Yan has since come to voice that he was affected with injury in that first bout, but based on his history and overall lack of striking power in that fight and others since, I don’t believe Yan has improved his already world-class fighting acumen enough to be able to change what occurred between him and ‘The Machine’ in their first bout.
We will see a more concerted effort from Yan to maintain distance and fortify his striking space by utilizing movement. Yan’s only chance to upset the current champion is to outpoint him with his deft stand-up ability.
Should this fight hit the floor, however, Dvalishvili, who will be the one flooring Yan, will control the slightly larger, younger Yan. On the canvas, Dvalishvili’s strength, cardio and heavy top force will allow him to not only maintain control over the third-ranked athlete in the division, but inflict damage upon him as well.
This fight opened Dvalishvili -260, and his price is now -470.
I would normally try to find any way to regard Yan as able to defeat a champion in Dvalishvili, who defends his title for the fourth time this year and second time in two months, but the only ‘legitimate’ threat to Dvalishvili in my judgment is the rematch with Umar Nurmagomedov, which will occur in 2026, be it Dvalishvili or Yan.
In fact, at DraftKings, Umar Nurmagomedov to be UFC Bantamweight Champion 12-31-26 is +300.
When Dvalishvili defeated Umar this past January, Umar had opened -170 then closed -250ish. When they fight again, and it will be in 2026, that fight will be lined with Dvalishvili as favorite, but it will be in the -140 to -170 range. Capturing Umar now will provide great price advantage as we near that rematch.
Total in the Dvalishvili/Yan fight: 4.5 Rds Over -445.
Future Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov +300 to be UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026 (available DraftKings).
I’ll be right here next year to follow up on that wager!
Alexandre Pantoja -235 vs. Joshua Van +200
Flyweight (125 pounds) Championship
Current flyweight champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title.
Since 2020, the relatively undersized Pantoja has cleaned out all viable threats to his title, albeit in a division that has little viewer or popular appeal.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renowned MMA gym featuring an abundance of skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows Pantoja to refine his already elite weaponry against every type of adversary his size and larger.
Pantoja’s dominance in the division reflects the high-energy competition he faces daily at ATT, unlike the general lack of skilled fighters competing at 125 pounds today.
Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler who holds striking aptitude, deft defensive skills and experience that has been developed against the ultimate threats in the division over the course of a decade plus.
Pantoja is lightning quick, strong, and athletic for his age, but of all his physical attributes, the most apparent trait in his fights is not his physicality; rather, it is his mentality.
Pantoja’s mental toughness, his fight IQ, and his zeal to hold this title after struggling for so many years to capture it comprise the fabric of the Pantoja fight arsenal. Never mind his world-class BJJ, wrestling and Muay Thai skills.
Pantoja’s opponent for this fight is a talented, ascending mixed martial artist, Joshua Van.
Van, a Burmese athlete, is a natural fighter. He’s not decorated with any Judo, BJJ or wrestling accolades/belts, but what he has shown the ability to do is to show up, throw hands, and try to earn victory.
So far, this wild ascent from aggressive Van assaults has worked for Van is now 30 months into the UFC and stands 7-1, his sole loss a KO at the hands of Charles Johnson.
Van’s stepping up in class of opponent (understatement), and while he’ll be the younger man at 24, he’ll also be in the cage against a savvy, decorated professional who has competed against the elite of this division for over a decade.
Once this fight begins, it will be interesting to determine how long it takes Pantoja to ground Van, then force the assenting fighter into the very deep waters he has never been taken to.
I find it unlikely that Pantoja will try to play with his food and give the young lion a chance for a ‘Sunday shot,’ rather this will be an all business Pantoja awarding a young, talented but not yet ready for the title, Josh Van, his PhD in MMA.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -240
Grant Dawson -200 vs. Manuel Torres +175
Lightweight (155 pounds)
We must include the finest example of a “styles make fights” battle as we can imagine.
In one corner, we have Mexico’s Manuel Torres, a Muay Thai-based killer from Chihuahua, Mexico, who is an aggressive, forward pressing striker intent on concussing opponents, fearless enough to confront him in a cage.
At 4-1 in the UFC, Torres just decimated journeyman Drew Dober after being schooled at Noche 2024 by Ignacio Bahamondes.
Power striking from distance, apt infighting using elbows, knees, and shoulders, or on the ground in top position, Torres has one single point of focus: Mar the opponent, then take them out.
In Grant Dawson, we have the complete counterbalance to the aggressive striking ability of Torres. Dawson is a world-class wrestling savant. He’s been developing in mixed martial arts repertoire, namely his striking at Florida’s ATT, a gym that trains a plethora of world-class mixed martial artists. Dawson is able to sharpen his steel against the many gifted athletes there.
Once this fight starts, it will be Torres who must manage to keep this fight at distance and on the feet so he can try to touch the wrestler upon advancement. It will be Dawson’s task to ensure that sometime before 15 minutes of fight time elapse, he is able to take Torres to the turf, then smother him with ground and pound from top position.
Fans want to see finishes. Either way in this fight, one cat’s going to finish the other, evidenced by this total of 1.5 Under -140.
UFC 323 Best Bet: Dvalishvili -410/Dawson-200; 2u returns 1.73u
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Get all my final UFC releases there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities
