UFC 326 Predictions:
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas hosts this week’s UFC 326 Holloway vs. Oliviera for Holloway’s ‘BMF’ championship belt.
The event is scheduled for 13 fights, five of which will be held at the larger weight classes of welterweight (170 pounds) and above, which, by the numbers, means higher finish rates. The UFC has doubled the amount of their fighter bonuses to encourage exciting battles and dynamic finishes. Thus far this year, it seems to be working.
There are four fights with an age gap of six years or greater between opponents. Six years or more equates to at least a 62% rate of winning for the younger fighter in any particular battle.
Eleven of the 26 athletes on this fight card are from the USA. Three fights feature a U.S. athlete vs. another U.S. fighter, leaving five fights in which an American can compete in Las Vegas against an opponent who must travel from outside the country to fight. Advantage goes to those five US athletes!
Fight fans will recognize many of the combatants on this fight slate as opposed to last week’s fight card, which was populated with obscure, relatively unknown talent.
Favorites continue to trample underdogs in 2026. Chalk is realizing a 75.4% result through February. Let’s trust that an eventual resurgence of underdogs does arise before the year gets much more mature.
Last week, David Martinez -250 earned this column a unit of profit. Let’s reinvest that momentum into this stacked UFC 326 fight card!
Max Holloway -215 vs. Charles Oliveira +185
Lightweight (155 pounds) BMF Title
This is a rematch of a fight, or shall I say a near fight that occurred in 2015, when Oliveira was 13 fights into his UFC stint. Then much more of a submission specialist competing at the 145-pound featherweight division, Oliviera was less well-rounded than he is today. He also carried the heavy burden of a reputation that revolved around his lack of intestinal fortitude.
At the time, handicappers such as I questioned Oliveira’s ability to dig down deep and fight nasty and with determination, especially when the fight got messy.
Unfortunately, that fight accentuated his reputation for being an athlete with a lack of fortitude as a mysterious ailment hit Oliveira early, causing him to stop competing 1:36 into round one of that main event.
Oliveira’s ailment in that fight is a mystery to this day. Tapology cites the reason for the stoppage as a ‘shoulder or neck’ injury, while others have maintained it was an esophageal issue.
Whatever the reason, the facts are that Holloway was declared the winner and Oliveira had to spend years toiling in his attempt to remove the label of ‘quitter’ that he had earned based on the results of that fight and previous ones.
Flash forward to this week, and we see a vastly different version of Oliviera. He is now a full-grown lightweight (155-pound) man. He’s incorporated highly effective striking weaponry to complement his world-class BJJ, and his wrestling is solid.
Since that embarrassment against Holloway, Oliveira has realized a 17-6 record in the UFC with legitimate victories over athletes like Chandler, Gamrot, Poirier, and Gaethje.
Now the third-ranked lightweight in the division, Oliveira marches into this matchup a much different fighter, competitor, and man than he was when these two first tangled in that odd 2015 main event.
Current BMF title holder Max Holloway, arguably the GOAT of the featherweight division (if there was no Alexander Volkanovski), earned the BMF belt in spectacular fashion in 2024 when he famously pointed to the center of the cage in his epic battle against lightweight Justin Gaethje, then knocked him face-first and senseless to the canvas with one second remaining in that fight.
To the untrained eye, Holloway may appear to be less well-rounded than Oliviera, but that is actually not the case. Holloway’s incorporation of Boxing, Muay Thai, Wrestling and BJJ together makes him a complete threat to anyone in the division and a dynamic finishing force inside the octagon.
Physically, these two former featherweights now competing at lightweight are ultra dangerous as they’ve each grown into their 155-pound bodies and have a string of defeated opponents in their wake, leading up to this rematch.
Once the bell rings, we’ll see Oliveira attempt to press forward aggressively to exchange with Holloway, but only long enough to try to clasp ahold of him to make this a fight ‘in a phone booth.’ Oliveira requires a fight waged from close quarters to transition between grappling and striking.
Oliveira has been wobbled and dropped in several previous fights. His strike defense is such that he takes a couple to dish a couple, and in this matchup, that must be minimized. Standing too long against Holloway will have a disastrous result.
For Holloway, the blueprint is footwork first, because maintaining appropriate striking/kicking distance will be paramount for his success in this fight, which is not to say that he can’t or won’t grapple with Charles.
Holloway’s BJJ is developed. While not as refined as Oliveira’s, it is sound enough to be able to allow him to compete with Oliveira long enough to find his way back to his feet, where his advantage is greatest.
Both men have faced the elite of the same two divisions for well over a decade now. Each man has earned signature wins and has experienced emotionally draining losses.
Each of these men has held a title and defended it, yet it is this bit of unfinished business that drives both men, as well as the UFC and its fans, into understanding that of all the BMF fights to date, this will be the most extreme, the most epic, and the most competitive fight to date.
I believe Holloway will be able to thwart the early grappling charges of Oliveira. He’ll be able to keep this fight standing and at distance, which will allow him to bludgeon the Brazilian with a constant barrage of jabs, leg kicks, combinations and slicing elbows/knees.
Oliveira has battled to overcome the reputation of being mentally frail, but he has not been in the cage against THIS 2026 Max Holloway. On Saturday night, it seems only a matter of time before Holloway’s diversity of movement, striking acumen and his defensive aptitude allow him to systematically disassemble Oliveira over the course of this 25-minute fight.
UFC 326 Best Bet: Max Holloway -215 (Circa)
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Under -135.
I have also seen some 2.5 Rds. Over -160 totals in the marketplace, which creates potential arbitrage betting opportunities. Those considering the ‘Fight does not go to decision’ can make that wager (when those lines are opened up), then couple it with the Over 2.5 Rds. creating a 12:30-minute middle potential while mitigating damage because one wager will win and the other will not, unless they both realize profitability.
I’ll bet the ‘Over 2.5’ and the ‘fight does not go to decision’ when that prop comes out and make a middle attempt.
Caio Borralho -260 vs. Reinier de Ridder +220
Middleweight (185 pounds) co-main event
We last saw eighth-ranked middleweight de Ridder quit on the stool between the fourth and fifth rounds in his fight against fourth-ranked Brendan Allen last October in France.
De Ridder, 4-1 in the UFC, had looked stellar in his three wins leading up to the Allen debacle, but now must return to the cage against a more sound and competent middleweight threat in Borralho in order to make amends.
What de Ridder does have is an absolute world-class grappling acumen. He is a black belt in both BJJ and Judo. Throughout most of his career, de Ridder competed at the 205-pound weight class.
For UFC competition, de Ridder competes at 185 pounds, which provides him great advantage, as he is always the much larger man in the cage against UFC middleweights. With that advantage, however, comes risk. In order to make that aggressive weight cut to 185 pounds, de Ridder can compromise his fighting output by warring with the weight cut before the fight.
This is what transpired in the Brendan Allen fight as de Ridder eventually ran out of gas, then immediately ran out of heart.
So the question for this fight is how will de Ridder address the weight in the weeks and days leading up to a fight with an adversary well more equipped and dangerous than Allen?
This matchup is a three-round fight, so de Ridder gets a reprieve as he has battled in five-round fights in his last two UFC appearances: one a victory over former champion Robert Whittaker, then the dud he threw up against Allen.
Brazilian warrior Caio Borralho is de Ridder’s opponent Saturday. He enters this showdown with confidence surging despite arriving to this fight off a loss to Nassourdine Imavov in his last bout.
Borralho, a leader of the ‘Fighting Nerds’ fight team, has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Muay Thai striking, and a brown belt in judo, which together help explain his quick ascension into the division’s elite.
Borralho’s combination of speed, power, fight weaponry, mental toughness, and forward-pressing aggression makes him a threat to any athlete in this division despite his relatively short, compact build.
Once this fight begins, we’ll see de Ridder immediately try to use his massive body structure/frame to envelope Borralho, clinch him up, and push him against the fence. Eventually, de Ridder will try to take him to the mat, where Borralho’s grappling skill, world-class in nature, will be forced into dealing with a man every bit as equipped in BJJ as he, but one that sports a massive size advantage.
While these two are similar in the aptitude of their grappling, they are much different. Only Borralho possesses the ability to strike and injure.
De Ridder possesses pedestrian striking. There is little speed, crispness, or power in his strikes. He rarely throws in numbers as his stand up is but a foil to set up his grappling. He is a one-trick UFC pony.
Borralho will own a substantial striking advantage, even though he can be a bit telegraphing and wide with his strikes in the heat of battle. The more complete mixed martial arts weaponry belongs to Borralho, while the size, strength, and grappling advantage side with de Ridder.
In a three-round battle, these two are seemingly well-matched. It’s my judgment that this fight will be more competitive than the current pricing on these men suggests.
De Ridder’s size will be a major factor in this outcome. Should he be able to ground Borralho and gain top position at any point in this fight, he absolutely has the ability to finish the BJJ Black belt.
Meanwhile, any great advantage Borralho has in the striking department is somewhat muted because de Ridder is six inches taller and sports a four-inch reach advantage with his arms.
I can muddy the picture even further by mentioning that each of these fighters are southpaws, and when two southpaws face each other, odd things often occur.
Borralho’s speed, nasty nature, and striking lead me to believe he should be the favorite in this battle, but not one with this high of a price tag. I don’t believe current pricing is reflective of the kind of fight I expect from the man from the Netherlands.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -185
Gregory Rodrigues -205 vs. Brunno Ferreira +185
Middleweight (185 pounds)
In January of 2023, the UFC gave debuting Brazilian power striker Brunno ‘the Hulk’ Ferreira an almost impossible task by matching him up in his debut UFC fight against fellow Brazilian mixed martial artist Gregory ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues.
In that fight, the more complete mixed martial artist Rodrigues failed to utilize his grappling, instead choosing to try to ‘hook with a hooker’ and outslug the shorter, more compact, more explosive, and much less diversified fighter in Ferreira.
Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first round.
On Saturday, Rodrigues, a black belt in BJJ, gets his opportunity to rematch Ferreira in a fight where he understands completely the dangers of standing and trading with the short, compact, highly explosive, and profusely powerful keg of dynamite that is Ferreira.
For this rematch, Rodrigues must put pride aside and grapple with this anvil of an opponent. Should he lose focus and attempt to stand and trade power shots with Ferreira, the result of this fight will be the same as in their first.
However, should Rodrigues be able to effectively close distance on Ferreira, clasp onto him, and force him to expend energy fending off the advances of Rodrigues, then this fight may turn completely to Robocop’s favor.
Ferreira has been defeated twice in his UFC career since that debut win against Rodrigues. In each instance, it was an athlete with deep grappling ability that exposed Ferreira’s lack of a complete mixed martial arts arsenal.
So the plan for Rodrigues is clear: respect the power of the short, squat keg of dynamite that is Ferreira, and as early as possible, transition this fight from a striking battle to a grappling battle.
Should Rodrigues execute this plan, then he will make amends for the complete lack of fight IQ he displayed in the first fight when he decided to stand and hook with a hooker.
Rodrigues must grapple this man in order to get his hand raised.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Under -125
Strong lean Over
Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms, get my final releases for UFC there or at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
