UFC 327 Predictions:
Miami hosts this week’s UFC 327, an event featuring 12 scheduled bouts consisting of well-recognized and mostly ranked UFC fighters. There are seven bouts to be held at weight levels of 170 pounds and above, so the matchmakers are striving to present violence in Florida, as heavier athletes realize higher finish rates.
Four of the main card fights highlight larger athletes. There are also five fights scheduled in which one athlete is at least five years younger than their adversary.
Fighters with a youth advantage of six years or greater win their fights at roughly a 63% clip. That rate increases as the age gap widens.
Miami will utilize the large octagon, and it is safe to say the athletes that train in Florida, as well as the Latino fighters shipping in to compete, will hold a crowd advantage during their bouts.
One last point is that this fight card features highly competitive bouts, as most of these battles are lined at -200 or less to the favorite, I smell some underdogs!
Last week, Virna Jandiroba’s size, experience and elite grappling earned her a decision victory over tiny terrorizer Tabitha Ricci, which adds another unit of profit to this digital column. We stand 7-7 -.60u on the year.
Let’s Fight!
Jiri Prochazka -125 vs. Carlos Ulberg +100
Light Heavyweight Championship (205 pounds)
Ulberg ships in from Australia’s City Kickboxing club to take this title opportunity. Ulberg lost his debut, then rattled off nine straight wins, earning him a 9-1 UFC record. Ulberg’s level of competition has actually been lacking until recently, as he has earned victories in his last three fights against top-10 competition in the division, albeit against opponents who are no longer relevant in the division.
Ulberg, a male model in his spare time, is a kickboxing specialist who arrives to competition with athleticism, the ability to move fluently on his feet, and certain power in his hands. What Ulberg has not seen yet in UFC competition and what he will not see in this fight is an adversary with world-class wrestling/grappling prowess. In this fight, his opponent will confound Ulberg with his unorthodoxy, not his grappling acumen.
Ulberg has been fortunate to have competed against an ascending level of varying striking talent thus far in his UFC career. In this fight, his level of competition rises to the pinnacle of the division. Jiri Prochazka is a legitimate top-two talent in the division who, in the last decade, has lost only to Alex Pereira twice.
Ulberg, currently ranked third in the division, has a golden opportunity to earn himself a championship belt, but I must ask if he is biting off more than he can chew this early in his ascending career.
In Jiri Prochazka, we have a Czech warrior who is as unconventional in his training, fight arsenal, and approach to war as there is in the organization.
Prochazka is a black belt in Kyokushin, a Japanese derivative of Karate, so his awkward stance, unconventional movement, and tactics in the cage are matched only by his unorthodox approach to life.
When the bell for this fight clangs, we will witness a couple of 6’4” behemoths who will each look to back the other man up with a steady application of stand-up striking.
Ulberg, a man whose wrestling/grappling prowess I suspect is lacking, will not have to address that specialty in this fight. Jiri is as singularly dimensioned a striker as is Carlos. What Carlos must be aware of is that he is sometimes stale and inactive in fights. He cannot afford to be ‘watching’ in this one!
This fight sets up to be a stand-up battle waged between a calm, levelheaded, matriculated, structured striker in Ulberg against a free-flowing, no-holds-barred improvisational striker in Prochazka.
Both men possess aggression, strength, power, and experience, but in this matchup, it’s my judgment that Prochazka’s history of world-class athletes faced separates him from Ulberg, who has faced complementary talent only.
The substantial step up in class of opponent is the differentiating matter in this handicap. Because of this ascent in competition, I must lean to Prochazka here, for he has proven himself in the division over time.
Monitoring.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -120
Chris Padilla -180 vs. MarQuel Mederos +160
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Padilla jumped on the UFC scene with an impressive victory over favorite James Liontop in his UFC debut.
Padilla then defeated his next two journeyman opponents before being tested in his last fight by Ismail Bonfim, a fighter who has the name but not much of a fighting game. It’s Bonfim’s brother who holds the authentic fighting talent in that family.
Padilla enters this fight with great momentum and a good bit of ‘recency’ attached to his price as I handicap this fight. Padilla’s got good feet, he has power in his strikes and he’s a diversely equipped fighter. However, he takes on an adversary in this fight who is a substantial class level above those he has competed against to date.
Mederos trains out of the MMALab in Phoenix, AZ. He’s a gifted, slick striker with deft footwork, power in all limbs, and a wrestling/grappling acumen that provides Mederos the appropriate fighting tools to apply in any adversarial situation a fight may present him with.
These two are closely matched, but it is the nuanced striking of Mederos’ simplicity that forces me to side with him.
Physically, Mederos will sport a slight height advantage while Padilla will have arm reach, but this fight will NOT be decided by the physical attributes of each fighter, but by their will.
This battle boils down to grit, guts, and grime for these two will batter each other with the understanding that a win here may project the victor into the top 15 of the division, a division steeped with talent.
Padilla, who rides in with some public awareness, opened -150 for this fight. There is bias in his price based on that recency as he now stands -180.
This fight should be priced much tighter for the power, strike defense and grappling of Mederos, who has been relatively absent from the cage for a few months, must account for some premium, while Padilla’s recent win over Bonfim may be seen as more of an accomplishment by the public than it truly is.
Saturday night, Mederos will have the opportunity to move on up the lightweight ladder. He must defeat a confident power puncher in Padilla, and I believe over three long rounds, he’ll earn a tough decision victory.
UCF Miami Best Bet: Mederos +160
Mederos points handicap will be released later this week, and that wager may make great fiscal sense depending on the price.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -220
Lean Over
Curtis Blaydes -125 vs. Josh Hokit +105
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Power punching athlete Josh Hokit has obliterated two straight UFC opponents, and now the UFC gives him the opportunity to try to touch glass-jawed Curtis Blaydes.
Should he be successful, a win would propel Hokit, a fighter the UFC loves and wants to see succeed, to the top of an oh-so-thin division, while it would basically end Blaydes run as a legitimate top-five fighter in the division.
The UFC has never liked Blaydes nor his dominant form of wrestling, so they bombard him with young, fast, powerful strikers to try to eliminate him. The issue is that Blaydes is stubborn and one damn accomplished wrestling-based mixed martial artist. The cat just won’t go away!
Blaydes’ level of competition faced and the fact his wrestling is the standard bearer in the division, coupled with his angst that he is constantly having to fend off these young up-and-comers (see Jailton Almeida), is providing him great focus and intensity for this fight.
Blaydes -125 is an absolutely bargain price as he opened -160, which I view as more than attractive and affordable. It’s my position that he will smear Hokit all over the canvas Saturday in a one-sided wrestling display.
Let’s parlay.
UFC Miami Best Bet: Blaydes -125 to Tatsuru Taira -180*
*Taira faces Flyweight Champion Josh Van on May 9thin New Jersey.
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all major podcast platforms, as well as on GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
