UFC Abu Dhabi Predictions – Whittaker vs. de Ridder:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Abu Dhabi best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 3-3, +1.05 Units (16.33% ROI)
Since 2020: 731-703 (+188.88 Units, 10.84% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 8-6 (57.14%)
Article History: 436-277-1 (61.15%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Robert Whittaker (-155) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker has fought 12 times since April 2017. Eleven of those 12 fights have been in a main or co-main event. He is a former middleweight champion, extremely popular, and exclusively fights under the brightest lights. At 34 years old, he is one of the best gatekeepers in the sport, near his physical prime and ready for all comers. He is 17-6 in the UFC with six wins via knockout and 11 via decision.
In June of last year, Whittaker headlined a card in Saudi Arabia and took on Ikram Aliskerov, who was on a seven-fight win streak (six finishes). The former champ humbled the upstart and won via first-round knockout. After that bout, he had a chance at Khamzat Chimaev and lost via submission, a face crank that broke Whittaker’s jaw. That fight was in October 2024, and there is potential that there will be lingering effects after such a brutal injury. His opponent in this matchup is also a brutal submission artist, albeit less dangerous a striker and significantly less explosive overall. Whittaker isn’t necessarily a fighter who jumps off the stat sheet regarding his metrics. He is a fairly active striker, but not overwhelming. He isn’t very accurate. However, his defense is very good, especially when his strength of schedule is considered. He has a career 81% takedown defense rate, and outside of the fight versus Chimaev, he has never been submitted in the UFC.
Renier de Ridder is on a fast track to the title shot short list. He is a former two-division champion in the ONE organization based in Southeast Asia. Since coming to the UFC, he is 3-0 with three finishes, all over notable opponents. He started his UFC career with a third-round submission victory over UFC veteran Gerald Meerschaert, followed that up with a first-round submission win over fan favorite Kevin Holland, and in May, he TKO’d the division’s most hyped prospect, Bo Nickal. He has steadily built momentum. With a win here, he could potentially elbow his way into the top five of a crowded middleweight division. Known for his grappling and slick submission skills, he has put up some impressive striking accuracy in a limited sample size. He has absorbed 2.21 significant strikes per minute, which is elite. However, when you look at his true defense rate of 44% the picture becomes clearer. He has been able to avoid getting hit because his grappling has been an effective weapon. When he stands with opponents, they land.
If Robert Whittaker is healthy and if he is focused, he is the perfect fighter to stonewall de Ridder’s ascension. He has a good jab, keeps distance, and is hard to take down. De Ridder’s path to victory is through making Whittaker respect his striking ability so he can close the distance, but I am not confident that will happen. I am also not confident that de Ridder’s clinch and subsequent takedown attempts will work on Whittaker.
FIGHT WINNER: Robert Whittaker
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Robert Whittaker (-147, Bovada) vs. de Ridder. Risk 1.47 Units to Win 1
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Petr Yan (-360) vs. Marcus McGhee (+285)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
Bantamweight
Petr Yan has a checkered UFC past due to some bad luck and bad fight IQ. He is 10-4 in the UFC and a former two-time bantamweight title holder. He lost his first title defense versus Aljamain Sterling, a fight he was winning before a terrible illegal knee ended the fight via DQ. Following that fight, Sterling took time to recover, and Yan won an interim title versus Cory Sandhagen but was unable to defend the title in his rematch versus Sterling. From there, he was robbed of a decision victory versus Sean O’Malley. He then lost to Merab Dvalishvilli, who has not looked back. That being said, 2024 was a massive rebound year for Yan. He handily defeated both Yadong Song and Deiveson Figueiredo, both via decision, and could potentially position himself for a chance at the belt once again if he stays hot. His boxing is always crisp, and his takedown defense is elite versus everyone not named Merab Dvaishvili.
Marcus McGhee is taking a massive step up in competition in this fight. That doesn’t mean he isn’t ready. McGhee is 35 years old but didn’t get his start in professional mixed martial arts until February of 2020. He is 10-1 as a professional and 4-0 in the UFC, with his first three wins coming via finish. His last fight was a massive step up in competition versus Jonathan Martinez, and he passed that test. He came out guns blazing, winning the first two rounds by landing 75 significant strikes to Martinez’s 24. However, round three potentially showed some issues with his gas tank as Martinez was able to stay fresh and edge out the round.. McGhee was headhunting early in the fight, but finding KOs versus ranked UFC opponents is easier said than done. McGhee is young in his fight age, and it is possible he learned his lesson against Martinez.
Marcus McGhee is older than Petr Yan, but his fight age is much younger. Additionally, despite being just one inch taller, McGhee is substantially bigger than Yan. He is an extremely thick bantamweight who cuts a ton of weight. Physically, he is much more imposing than Yan, and he will use it to try to earn respect on the feet early. The issue is speed. Will he be able to avoid Yan’s crisp, clean strikes? Can he overpower Yan? This is only three rounds, and at 35 years old, McGhee is short on time. McGhee’s wins by causing undeniable damage. Yan wins by keeping the distance and methodically peppering away at McGhee’s head, body, and legs. I believe this fight is closer than the odds, and I cannot wait to watch it.
FIGHT WINNER: Marcus McGhee
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Pass
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Shara Magomedov (-650) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+470)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+145)
Middleweight
Shara Magomedov was the hottest middleweight in the organization last year, but he faced the veteran Michael “Venom” Page and got a look at what true elite movement and hand speed look like. Magomedov struggled to find a home for his power and was unable to see Page’s strikes coming. Despite the setback, his career numbers as an offensive striker are still elite. He lands 5.87 significant strikes per minute with a 62% accuracy rate. However, defensively, his number of 42% defense needs to improve. He is not much of a grappler, and that element of mixed martial arts is not likely to manifest in this bout. Marc-Andre Barriault is an all-action fighter who is 6-8 (1 NC in the UFC). His last three fights have ended in the first round, including a brutal elbow KO versus Bruno Silva in May. That being said, he is an opponent custom-made to showcase Magomedov’s striking ability.
FIGHT WINNER: Shara Magomedov
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Shara Magomedov to win via KO (-135) vs Barriault, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
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Asu Almabayev (-108) vs. Jose Ochoa (-112)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
Flyweight
Asu Almabayev was undefeated in the UFC until he was given a chance to fight Manel Kape in a de facto title eliminator fight in March. He stepped into that fight on short notice and outclassed from the first minute until he was defeated via knockout in the third round. He was on a very positive trajectory before that big swing. Almabayev has a skillset that is tough to deal with because he is a dominant wrestler. He is more of a position over submission fighter, but does have nine submission victories in 21 professional wins. Jose Ochoa is 1-1 in the UFC. He fought last month, knocking out Cody Durden in the second round, but he is taking this fight on short notice after Ramazan Temirov withdrew. Ochoa has a definite striking advantage, but Asu Almabayev should be able to dominate on the ground if he can avoid getting pieced up. I actually am a fan of Ochoa’s game. He was very close to being 2-0 in the UFC. This fight is a conflict of styles. I believe Asu Almabayev is better suited to win this bout because he isn’t being swept across the Pacific Ocean at the last minute to fight in hostile territory. Additionally, Ochoa is a very good striker, but I’m not ready to put him anywhere near Manel Kape’s level.
FIGHT WINNER: Asu Almabayev
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Pass
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Nikita Krylov (-198) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+164)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-180)
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov has been in the UFC since 2013 and has fought a who’s who of UFC journeymen. He is 11-8 in the organization and has won three of his last four fights. He fought Dominick Reyes in April and, unfortunately, became a victim of “The Dominator” comeback tour, losing via first-round knockout. Nearly 75% of his UFC fights have ended inside the distance, and he is capable of ending fights with both strikes and submissions. Bogdan Guskov is an up-and-coming light heavyweight who suffered a defeat to the veteran Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut. He followed up that performance with three consecutive, dominant, and exciting finishes. He is much more of a striker than a grappler and will likely have the striking advantage in this bout. The veteran experience of Krylov is hard to discount, but with experience comes damage, and Guskov is capable of finding the chin versus an aggressive opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Bogdan Guskov
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Pass
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Bryce Mitchell (-148) vs. Said Nurmagomedov (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Bantamweight
Bryce Mitchell has fallen on hard times in the featherweight division, so he is trying his hand in a lower weight class at bantamweight. He is 8-3 overall in the organization, but three of his losses have come in his last five fights. He is a very good BJJ practitioner and lands his best strikes when in top control position. In stand-up exchanges, his technique is rudimentary. Said Nurmagomedov is also a great grappler, but a much more adept striker than Bryce Mitchell. He is going to be giving up two inches in height, but he is Mitchell’s equal in reach at 70 inches. He has never been submitted as a pro fighter, and I do not think Bryce Mitchell is going to be the first. I believe Nurmagomedov is the more well-rounded combatant and will drag this out to a close decision. If it gets there, I expect Nurmagomedov’s striking numbers to be the story of the fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Said Nurmagomedov
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Said Nurmagomedov (+124) vs Mitchell. Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
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Muslim Salikhov (+400) vs. Carlos Leal (-535)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+110)
Welterweight
Muslim Salikhov is 41 years old and potentially rounding into the prime of his MMA career. He is on a two-fight win streak, a close split decision win versus Santiago Ponzinibbio, and then last November, a spinning wheel kick knockout against Kenan Song. He is a true Kung Fu fighter who uses all of his limbs to deliver devastating knockout blows. But he is no longer as fast as he once was, and he is still a fish out of water when he faces an opponent who knows how to get the fight to the ground.
Carlos Leal is a PFL/Bellator veteran who is now 1-1 in the UFC. His first fight was a loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov in the biggest scorecard robbery in recent memory. He clearly won that fight despite the official result, and he made sure to leave no doubt in his encore performance. He dominated Alex Morono and knocked him out in the very first round in March of this year. He is a brawler, with perhaps more grappling ability than he has shown in the UFC thus far. He is also strong in the clinch and fights with a blistering pace. He could get overzealous and eat a devastating shot due to carelessness, but I believe he will dominate this fight by keeping things close and dirty boxing.
FIGHT WINNER: Carlos Leal
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Salikhov/Leal Fight to NOT complete 2 full rounds (-130, Bovada), Risk 1.3 Units to Win 1
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Da’Mon Blackshear (-375) vs. Davey Grant (+295)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Bantamweight
Da’Mon Blackshear is a bit of a confounding UFC prospect. He is 5-3-1 in the UFC, but is on a three-fight win streak (all as a heavy favorite). He is an elite submission artist, but his striking deficiencies have shown up in his losses. He is extremely long for the bantamweight division at 5’10” with a 72-inch reach. He uses his length to great effect, finding positions and submissions unavailable to most 135-pounders. Davey Grant is an aging brawler. He has been submitted three times in the UFC and is the owner of three knockout victories. Montel Jackson was able to catch Blackshear with an early knockout, and Davey Grant has likely watched that film eagerly. That being said, I’m not sure if 39-year-old Grant has the speed to surprise Blackshear. There is a good bit of finish equity in this fight, but not quite enough to warrant a bet.
FIGHT WINNER: Da’Mon Blackshear
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Pass
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Amanda Ribas (-198) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+164)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-475) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+325)
Women’s Strawweight
Amanda Ribas is coming off back-to-back losses, and it is hard to ignore her downward trajectory over the past five years. She hasn’t won back-to-back fights since 2020. Ribas is well-rounded, but not overwhelming in any one area. Tabitha Ricci is a popular strawweight who attempts nearly three submissions per 15 minutes in the cage. She is a bit of a liability in striking because her striking differential is -2.11 over the course of her career. That being said, I think that this fight goes to a decision, and judges’ discretion is keeping me off a bet.
FIGHT WINNER: Amanda Ribas
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Pass
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Ibo Aslan (-298) vs. Billy Elekana (+240)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-120)
Light Heavyweight
Ibo Aslan charges forward on a straight line, swinging massive punches. Usually, the opponent goes down. However, in his last fight, Ion Cutelaba was able to absorb the pressure and get the fight to the ground. From there, he was able to work towards the arm triangle and end the fight in the first round. That said, low-level fighters are not going to be able to withstand his pressure. In his official UFC bouts, he has landed 7.84 significant strikes per minute and avoided 63% of those coming back. Billy Elekana is 0-1 in the UFC. It was a late notice bout with Bogdan Guskov, and he was dominated. I do not think Aslan is as good as Guskov, but he is likely more powerful. Elekana will be better in this fight than his first in the organization. I expect this to be a quick fight, and I expect it to be Aslan’s hands that win the day.
FIGHT WINNER: Ibo Aslan
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Pass
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Mohammad Yahya (+310) vs. Steven Nguyen (-395)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+165)
Featherweight
Mohammad Yahya was champion in the UAE Warriors promotion but has not found success in the UFC. He is 0-2 in UFC and was knocked out in the first round of his last fight. He will have lots of support in the United Arab Emirates because he is a native son. But the crowd can only do so much, and a -2.48 significant strike differential is hard to overcome. Steven Nguyen is 0-1 in the UFC after going 2-1 in Contender Series. He was a -185 favorite in his last fight and lost via decision. He is a much more active striker, but eats way too many shots, a staggering 7.36 per minute despite avoiding 60% of the attempts thrown his way. Regardless, I believe this fight will get the fans on their feet.
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Martin Buday (+210) vs. Marcus Buchecha (-258)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-105)
Heavyweight
Martin Buday is 6-1 in the UFC but has been unable to earn any fanfare. He is the rare heavyweight with 0 knockouts in the UFC, and his only finish in the organization came via submission versus Josh Parisian (no longer in the UFC). Heavyweights fighting to decisions don’t generate attention, but Martin Buday happens to be very good at it. He finds a way to differentiate himself on the scorecards, and that should be applauded. Marcus Buchecha is a multi-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion, making the jump to the UFC after going 5-1 in ONE. All five of his victories have come inside the distance (four via submission). His one loss came via decision versus the man who is now the ONE Heavyweight champion. Buday is in trouble if this gets to the ground, but there aren’t any rounds in the UFC that start on the ground. Buday has a chance here, albeit slight.
FIGHT WINNER: Macus Buchecha
UFC ABU DHABI BEST BET: Pass
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UFC ABU DHABI BEST BETS RECAP
- Robert Whittaker (-147, Bovada) vs de Ridder. Risk 1.47 Units to Win 1
- Shara Magomedov to win via KO (-135) vs Barriault, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
- Said Nurmagomedov (+124) vs Mitchell. Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
- Salikhov/Leal Fight to NOT complete 2 full rounds (-130, Bovada), Risk 1.3 Units to Win 1