UFC Atlanta Predictions – Usman vs. Buckley:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Atlanta best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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Last Week: 2-1 +1.23 Units (-32.8% ROI)
Since 2020: 720-688 (+190 Units, 10.9% ROI)
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*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Kamaru Usman (+220) vs Joaquin Buckley (-270)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 4.5 Rounds (-125)
Welterweight
Kamaru Usman has been out of the cage for a year and a half. The 38-year-old lost that fight to Khamzat Chimaev. It was up a weight class, and Usman took the bout on short notice. In that bout, Chimaev came out hot and won the first round via a 10-8 scoreline. Kamaru Usman showed his championship pedigree and rebounded, winning at least one of the next two rounds, and according to some media members, he won the fight outright. The ability to fight well deep into fights is something that could be a factor in this five-round affair.
Usman has always had an excellent ground game. He has some of the best folkstyle wrestling in the UFC. He has knockout power when the opportunity for an overhand right presents itself, but more than just the power, Usman is a technical striker who is efficient at scoring. Defensively, he is great and has a career strike differential of +1.62. Usman is 15-3 in the UFC, but the losses have come in his last three consecutive fights. And even on Usman’s way up, he faced knee injuries. A year and a half off is a long time, but Father Time is undefeated. Yet, sometimes a diminished champion is still better than the next set of contenders.
Joaquin Buckley is improving every time he enters the cage. He is on a six-fight win streak. In his last two bouts, he knocked out two former welterweight championship contenders, Colby Covington and Stephen Thompson. Both fighters are past their prime, like Usman, but the challenge Usman presents is definitely the toughest. But Buckley is one of the best athletes in the division and has won via knockout in eight of his 11 UFC victories. The power has been apparent since he began his UFC career, but recently, he has also shown the ability to wrestle. Not only has he landed four takedowns in two of his last three fights, but his takedown defense is trending up, holding the wrestler Colby Covington to just one takedown in eight attempts. Despite being known for his power, Buckley throws a lot of volume and has a solid career striking differential of +1.09.
This price really jumps off the page with Usman. He is by far the biggest test of Buckley’s career and has a grappling advantage. He is also a more efficient striker. Usman has been finished once in his UFC career, a perfectly timed head kick landed by Leon Edwards in the fifth round of a title fight. The biggest question I have is how invested in this fight Kamaru Usman is. Physically, he looks fully invested. He looked huge in training sessions leading up to the fight, and looked just as good on the scale. Buckley also made weight without a hitch and looks as powerful as ever. As a welterweight, Buckley is undefeated in the UFC; all three of his promotional losses came when he was fighting at 185 pounds. That being said, Usman will have a two-inch height advantage. I am a big fan of both fighters, but at these prices, I have to take a shot on the former champion.
FIGHT WINNER: Kamaru Usman
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Kamaru Usman (+250, BetOnline) vs Buckley, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.5
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Rose Namajunas (-230) vs Miranda Maverick (+190)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-540) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+360)
Women’s Flyweight
Rose Namajunas is another champion trying to right the ship after a loss. In November 2024, she was defeated by Erin Blanchfield. Rose is 2-3 dating back to 2022. She has proven good enough to take down contenders Tracy Cortez and Amanda Ribas. Since moving up from strawweight to flyweight, her lack of size has proven to be an issue. Wrestling is still one of her greatest strengths, but she struggles to keep women on the ground now that she is facing opponents making a bigger weight cut.
Miranda Maverick is on a four-fight win streak and is rising in the women’s flyweight rankings. She has landed more takedowns than her opponent in each of her last four fights and uses this grappling ability to limit damage taken. But her career takedown defense rate is just 44%, which is likely to be tested by Namajunas. I believe her striking volume could be the key to victory in this fight, but I am not sure she will be able to find a home against the crafty veteran. Her best path is likely to be employing the clinch and trying to get control time in the fight by any means necessary. Her reach advantage will be very slight, and she is actually shorter than her opponent, but she is much thicker than Rose, and using that natural size advantage needs to be a part of the game plan.
FIGHT WINNER: Rose Namajunas
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Pass
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Edmen Shahbazyan (-148) vs Andre Petroski (+124)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan is an elite striker with a terrible gas tank. He is 7-5 in the UFC with six of those victories coming inside the distance. Four of his five losses have also come inside the distance, all in rounds 2 or 3, and usually after winning the first round. He is dangerous for about seven minutes, no matter the opponent. He is also just 27 years old, and there is a chance that he can still reach his full potential by learning to manage his energy.
Andre Petroski is also a bit of a one-trick pony, but his gas tank is far from a concern. He is a high-level wrestler and lands an average of 3.38 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. He uses his wrestling to avoid taking much damage and only gets hit 2.65 times per minute. He is a position over finish fighter and lands just 2.89 significant strikes per minute. Additionally, his pure significant strike defense rate is below average at 50%. I want to believe Petroski can win this fight, but surviving the first round is the biggest question.
FIGHT WINNER: Edmen Shahbazyan
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Pass
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Cody Garbrandt (+210) vs Raoni Barcelos (-258)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt was one of the biggest stars in the UFC a decade ago. He was 11-0 and a champion who had rare power in the bantamweight division. Since 2017, he is 3-6 and has struggled to beat opponents with pedigree. He still has fast hands, but in this era of the UFC, that is not enough. His last fight at UFC 300, Deiveson Figueiredo was able to control him and find a submission in the second round.
Raoni Barcelos has been overlooked numerous times in his UFC career. He has an 8-4 record in the organization but has won two fights in a row. In January, he was a massive +710 underdog versus Payton Talbott and dominated that fight, winning via unanimous decision. The separating factor in that fight was Barcelos’ ability to land takedowns repeatedly. Garbrandt’s 80% career takedown defense rate means he will have to work harder to get them than he did versus Talbott. Additionally, Barcelos has been knocked out before, and if he can’t get Garbrandt to the ground, his chin will be tested.
FIGHT WINNER: Raoni Barcelos
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Pass
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Cody Brundage (+550) vs Mansur Abdul-Malik (-800)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+154)
Middleweight
Cody Brundage has not made a career in the UFC because of his 5-5 (1 NC) record, but because he is in exciting contests. All five of his victories have come inside the distance, and three of his losses have come inside the distance as well. He has a wrestling base, but is not afraid to take big swings to get an opponent out of there. He has a negative strike differential, and his grappling metrics are not exactly elite either.
Mansur Abdul-Malik is 8-0 as a pro and 2-0 in the UFC. He has seven wins via knockout and another via submission. His ultra-aggressive style will potentially be an issue when he faces better competition, but Brundage is the type of opponent that should allow Abdul-Malik to showcase his skills.
FIGHT WINNER: Mansur Abdul-Malik
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Alonzo Menifield (+490) vs Oumar Sy (-675)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield is another veteran who will be testing the skills of a high-potential prospect. Menifield won via split decision versus UFC newcomer Julius Walker in his last fight. Prior to that, he was knocked out by Carlos Ulberg and Azamat Murzakanov. The 37-year-old has some solid victories from earlier in his career, including wins versus Paul Craig, Misha Cirkunov, and Dustin Jacoby. His age definitely showed in his last fight, and I believe Father Time is in the process of claiming another victim.
Oumar Sy is 11-0 as a pro and 2-0 in the UFC. He is an equal opportunity finisher with four wins via knockout and four wins via submission. I am not confident he is going to find the finish versus the veteran Menifield, but I strongly believe he will get the win.
FIGHT WINNER: Oumar Sy
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Paul Craig (+320) vs Rodolfo Bellato (-410)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig has been a fan favorite in the UFC since he joined the organization in 2016. He has a 9-9-1 record and is usually in exciting bouts. He is on a three-fight losing streak and has lost five of his last six fights overall. He is also 37 years old and not quite as dangerous as he once was.
Rodolfo Bellato is 12-2-1 as a pro fighter and 1-0-1 in the UFC. He has a 92% finish rate. He is a dangerous puncher, but his submission defense has not been tested in the UFC. This price is a bit high for Bellato, and Craig has found victories as a huge underdog many times in the past. Bellato’s youth and athleticism probably win the day, but I am more confident that this fight is not going the distance.
FIGHT WINNER: Rodolfo Bellato
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Michael Chiesa (-355) vs Court McGee (+280)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
Welterweight
Michael Chiesa is another 37-year-old veteran, but unlike some of his peers, he is also fighting a veteran. Chiesa is a grappler first and foremost. He has never won via knockout, but 12 of his 18 career wins have come via submission. He can get exposed by opponents with strong takedown defense and technical striking. Additionally, there was much speculation about him retiring after he went on a three-fight losing streak from 2021 to 2023. That said, he fought twice in 2024 and won both of those fights via rear-naked choke, so it appears he still has some gas left in the tank.
Court McGee is 40 years old and 11-12 in the UFC. He lost three fights in a row before submitting Tim Means in the first round of a bout last October. McGee has lasted this long in the UFC because he is tough as hell. He has never been the most physically gifted fighter, but has been in lots of exciting and competitive fights. Neither fighter is a particularly good striker, but I give McGee the edge. On the ground, both fighters are tough, but Chiesa’s BJJ is truly world-class. Court McGee has never been submitted, but there is a first time for everything. I expect the slightly younger fighter to find a way to get his hand raised.
FIGHT WINNER: Michael Chiesa
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Malcolm Wellmaker (-2100) vs Kris Moutinho (+1100)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-154)
Bantamweight
These odds are absolutely insane considering Malcolm Wellmaker is just 9-0 as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC. His UFC debut was a first-round knockout of Cameron Saaiman. Before that, he won via first-round knockout in Contender Series. Wellmaker is also from Augusta, Georgia, meaning the Atlanta crowd will be very friendly.
Kris Moutino is making his return to the UFC after getting knocked out in two fights three years ago. Those losses came to Sean O’Malley and Guido Cannetti. Since leaving the bright lights of the UFC, Moutinho is on a five-fight win streak, with all five fights coming inside the distance. Moutinho has a good submission game, but I worry about his ability to get this young and powerful opponent to the canvas. Additionally, his head strike defense was terrible last time he was in the UFC, the worst I have ever seen, absorbing 15.48 significant strikes per minute. Unless he has made massive strides, this will be a trip to the office.
FIGHT WINNER: Malcolm Wellmaker
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Parlay- Malcolm Wellmaker via KO/Mansur Abdul-Malik to win via KO/Oumar Sy to Win (-109), Risk 1.09 Units to Win 1
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Cody Durden (+154) vs Jose Ochoa (-185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Flyweight
Cody Durden is a tough fighter to read. He is a good wrestler and 6-5-1 in the UFC. The record does not seem all that impressive until you consider he has been an underdog in 10 of his 12 fights in the organization. He is truly a grinder, and his aggressive double-leg takedowns can sometimes put him at risk, but versus strikers, he finds a way to wear down the opposition. Jose Ochoa is 7-1 as a pro and 0-1 in the UFC. His loss was a competitive bout versus highly rated prospect Lone’er Kavanagh. Six of his career wins have come via knockout, and another via submission. It should be noted that the one sub was via anaconda choke, a finish that presents itself versus grapplers like Cody Durden.
FIGHT WINNER: Cody Durden
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Pass
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Ricky Simon (-425) vs Cameron Smotherman (+330)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
Bantamweight
Ricky Simon feels like he has had three distinct UFC careers. He started his career 8-2. But then lost three fights in a row. In February, he fought Javid Basharat and looked like a new fighter, winning via first-round knockout. I believe in the career refresh. He always had good grappling, but if the hands are as good as they looked a few months ago, he can climb the bantamweight rankings.
Cameron Smotherman is 1-1 in the UFC after going 0-1 in Contender Series. He has gone the distance in both of his official UFC fights. He is a raw fighter who lands a lot of volume, but has not always had the best defensive habits. His takedown defense will be challenged early and often in this fight, and I expect it to falter in rounds 2 and 3.
FIGHT WINNER: Ricky Simon
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Parlay- Ricky Simon To Win/Michael Chiesa to Win/Bellato vs Craig Fight does not go the distance (+104), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.04
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Phil Rowe (+130) vs Ange Loosa (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
Welterweight
Phil Rowe has not fought in nearly a year. He is 3-3 and on a two-fight win streak. Similarly, Ange Loosa has had a middling career in the UFC with a 2-2 (1 NC) record. All of Loosa’s fights have gone the distance. Conversely, Phil Rowe has only won via knockout in the UFC. Loosa does not have much power, but he does land a lot of strikes. Rowe looks for the finishing blow and leaves himself susceptible to the takedown. Loosa has never been finished in his career. I think Rowe is live in this fight because I think he has fought tougher opponents, but Loosa’s striking volume could be the difference if we see the scorecards.
FIGHT WINNER: Ange Loosa
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Pass
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Vanessa Demopoulos (+455) vs Jamey-Lyn Horth (-625)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-375) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+270)
Women’s Flyweight
Vanessa Demopoulos is no stranger to being doubted. She has been the underdog in eight of her nine UFC fights. She has put together a 5-4 record with four of her victories coming via decision. Jamey-Lyn Horth is 2-2 in the UFC while being the favorite in three of her four fights. Demopoulos is taking this fight on short notice after Horth’s original opponent dropped out. Due to this fight being taken on short notice, Demopoulos is fighting up a weight class, and her size disadvantage figures to play a factor in this fight. Horth is five inches taller and has a seven-inch reach advantage. If anyone can defy these odds, it’s Demopoulos, but given the circumstances around this fight, I am not willing to bet on it.
FIGHT WINNER: Jamey-Lyn Horth
UFC ATLANTA BEST BET: Pass
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UFC ATLANTA BEST BETS RECAP
- Kamaru Usman (+250, BetOnline) vs Buckley, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.5
- Parlay- Malcolm Wellmaker via KO/Mansur Abdul-Malik to win via KO/Oumar Sy to Win (-109), Risk 1.09 Units to Win 1
- Parlay- Ricky Simon To Win/Michael Chiesa to Win/Bellato vs Craig Fight does not go the distance (+104), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.04
