UFC Atlanta Predictions:
The UFC marches through the summer with events lined up for weeks without having to revisit the APEX, as the UFC is in the midst of expanding that facility.
From New Jersey, they move to Atlanta, GA, for Fight Night Usman vs. Buckley, a welterweight main event. This fight card is scheduled for 13 fights with prelims beginning at 4 p.m. PT and the main card at 7 p.m. PT. Atlanta will provide these combatants with a full house crowd looking to slam suds and view violence.
Seven of the 13 bouts feature the larger men weighing 170 pounds and above, so the UFC has allocated an abundance of size and power to this event. They will fight in the large cage, which favors more athletic, fleet-footed, nimble fighters as opposed to the engagers who need to close distance, clasp, and wrestle.
This fight card is comprised of US and Canadian athletes with a stray Scot, Frenchman, Peruvian, and one or two other foreign athletes scattered within.
Kamaru Usman +210 vs. Joaquin Buckley -245
Welterweight (170 pounds) main event
Seventh-ranked welterweight Joaquin Buckley arrives at this fight with great momentum and trajectory. He is 31, dangerously explosive, and driven to compete for a title, and he has the benefit of fighting remarkably close to home. A winner of his last six bouts, Buckley has not tasted defeat since late 2022.
Buckley is short and compact but profusely powerful in his striking. He hits the octagon with a complete fight arsenal founded on an established wrestling base, forward-pressing aggression, and heart.
Usman, on paper, represents a significant step up in pedigree of foe for Buckley. Still, at 38 and having to compete on knees that have been MMA active for decades with wrestling before that, it’s safe to say that Usman’s now a shell of a fighter now that he was just two to three years ago.
Buckley’s fight game is power-based, yet he realizes a +1.09 significant strike differential per five minutes, which means there is high output behind that high voltage power. He is active with takedowns, averaging just under two takedowns per fifteen minutes. Buckley’s takedown defense is 73%, which is testimony to his short, hard physique and his deep ability to defend a takedown.
Usman, a decorated DII college wrestler and a BJJ black belt, needs little introduction. The former champion remains a forceful wrestler, a solid striker, and an accomplished force inside the octagon, but Usman’s utility inside the top 15 of this division will be wiped away with a loss in this fight.
He enters after having dropped his last three bouts (two against the timid Leon Edwards and one against the inconsistent Khamzat Chimaev). In that Chimaev fight, Usman looked formidable. He showed his durability, but he was also slow and laboring in a three-round decision defeat to the younger, faster Russian.
Usman’s mind is as sharp and powerful as ever; however, his body has been tattered from years of world-class competition, especially his knees.
Usman’s striking remains effective, and his wrestling is sound, but his explosion, his ability to move fluently, and his strike defense have all shown signs of waning.
It will be an arduous task for Usman, the proud old warrior that he is, to remain competitive in this fight with such a massive difference in age, speed, and quickness between these two.
Usman’s knee situation is real, tangible, and it mutes his ability to be as effective as he was in the prime of his career.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Under -130
Rose Namajunas -260 vs. Miranda Maverick +220
Women’s flyweight (125 pounds) co-main event
Eleventh-ranked Maverick, a black belt in BJJ with a formidable wrestling base, has earned victory in her last five bouts. The level of competition faced in those fights has steadily ascended into this sizable test as she now faces former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas.
Namajunas, with black belts in Karate and Tae Kwon Do and a brown belt in BJJ, surely has the fight arsenal to make her a threat in this division. “Thug Rose” carries name recognition. She is a former UFC champion, and she brings an extremely well-rounded fighting repertoire to face a shorter, stockier adversary in Maverick.
Maverick is a southpaw, and though she is shorter than Namajunas, she is also five years younger and fighting at her natural weight class, where Namajunas has had to rise into the flyweight division because she is no longer able to make 116 pounds for strawweight and retain any energy.
Namajunas’ results at 125 pounds have been acceptable as she has been able to defeat Amanda Ribas and journeywoman Tracy Cortez, but lost flyweight bouts to both Manion Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield.
While Namajunas has the pedigree and name recognition, I believe this Maverick test will be a difficult one for her because Maverick’s forward wrestling pressure, her aggression, and her physicality will force Rose to engage and defend, where ideally she wants to dwell in space and snap strikes at her incoming aggressor.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -520!
UFC Atlanta Best Bet: Miranda Maverick +220 half unit
I will also release Maverick via decision +300 for a half unit and Maverick plus 3.5 points -150 to earn a half unit.
Three wagers on this bout!
Rodolfo Bellato -550 vs. Paul Craig +435
Light heavyweight (205 pounds)
Bellato is 1-0-1 in the UFC and arrives for this, his third UFC battle, after their originally scheduled bout was cancelled (May 17th) due to a Bellato illness (for lack of a better description). When this fight was cancelled, Bellato was priced -550. Now, inside a month later, the fight reopened with Bellato lined at -360.
Bellato is a chiseled, heavily muscled physical specimen who is armed with superior kicking/striking power. His strength must be respected early. However, his last fight against Jimmy Crute showed that after a furious first six minutes or so, Bellato’s tank can be depleted rapidly.
Bellato’s offensive fury is evidenced in his 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute in UFC bouts. The issue for the power-striking Brazilian is that on offense, he is able, but defensively, he is flawed. Bellato allows 6.3 significant strikes against per minute of UFC competition, which leaves an abundance of room for improvement!
In Paul Craig, we have a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner from Scotland who has a submission win over the division’s current champion, Magomed Ankalaev. Submissions are Craig’s game. In the striking department, he is mundane at best, so the opportunity to wear on the big Brazilian to try to KO him late is remote.
Craig, a large man himself, has a body type that falls more under ‘dad bod’ than ‘sculpted’ or ‘chiseled.’ His striking is lacking for mixed martial artists of this level, but it is his grappling/submission ability that has allowed Craig to compete deep into this division and onto this fight Saturday.
Bellato will have tremendous advantage over Craig early in this fight while these men are standing. Should Craig be able to make it past the first round and ground the Bear-sized Brazilian, he will not only hold advantage, but he will likely submit the hulking striker, as Bellato swells up early from his torrid pace. He is as uncomfortable on the mat as Craig is on the feet!
Which man holds the advantage in this ‘styles make fights’ classic?
I lean to Craig.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -140 (when this fight was taken down a few weeks ago, this total was 1.5 Rds Under -135)
Friday morning, the Bout Business Podcast will be available at GambLou.com. My final positions can be accessed there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
