UFC Azerbaijan Predictions – Hill vs. Rountree:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Azerbaijan best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week; 2-1 +1.99 Units (64.4% ROI)
Since 2020: 722-689 (+191.99 Units, 11.01% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 9-2 (81.82%)
Article History: 406-258-1 (61.14%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Jamahal Hill (-110) vs Khalil Rountree Jr (-110)
Over 3.5 Rounds (+175) | Under 3.5 Rounds (-230)
Light Heavyweight
Two years ago, Jamahal Hill was the UFC’s light heavyweight champion of the world. At that point, he had one professional loss with an asterisk (injury sustained during the fight). He went on an epic run that concluded with knocking out former title challenger Thiago Santos and then won the vacant light heavyweight title versus Glover Teixeira. Unfortunately, after that peak, his career has been in a deep valley.
After winning the belt, he ruptured his Achilles during a UFC fighter basketball game in July of 2023. He came back in April of 2024 on the UFC 300 card vs Alex Pereira. That second chance at the belt did not work out well at all, and despite being just a slight favorite, Hill was completely outclassed. He arguably came back too soon for that fight, but he was knocked out in just over three minutes without landing any meaningful damage. After that fight, he came back in January of 2025 to challenge another fighter with championship pedigree. He made it to the third round but was ultimately knocked out.
Rountree is the fifth consecutive opponent he has faced who has ever held or fought for the light heavyweight championship. That said, Rountree’s track record is far inferior to the rest of the guys Hill has seen on this streak. Over the course of his UFC career, Hill has landed at a ridiculously high rate, 7.05 significant strikes per minute with a +3.03 differential. His defense rate at 45% is terrible, and when fighting opponents with legit power, he has paid the price.
Khalil Rountree Jr. is 14-6 as a pro, but his best rounds have come in recent years. The 35-year-old is 5-1 in his last six fights, with the loss coming versus Alex Pereira in a title shot last October. Rountree lost via KO in the fourth round, but did successfully land some power shots on the champ. He took a ton of damage, and his chin held up until the damage was too great to continue. The wear and tear on his body in that fight could be the type that sticks around into this fight. His striking accuracy in that fight was less than Stellar at 31%, but not far off his career number of 38%. Even with those lackluster accuracy numbers, he is still extremely dangerous because he possesses elite power and has landed 13 knockdowns in 16 UFC fights.
Both of these fighters lack the type of striking defense that is expected from tip-of-the-spear light heavyweights. They are also both purely stand-up fighters, and neither has landed a single takedown in the UFC. Both fighters have taken a ton of damage in recent fights, albeit Hill’s trauma was a little more recent. Both fighters are willing to eat a strike to land one, and both have knockout power. The difference is Rountree’s power is in his arms and legs, and he has the true one-punch stuff that highlight reels are made of. Hill does not lack power, but the majority of his TKO finishes have come through attrition and are not from a fight out of nowhere. I think that Rountree will probably land fewer strikes than Hill, but his strikes will yield greater consequences. I expect Rountree to win, and a KO is a very viable path to victory.
FIGHT WINNER: Khalil Rountree Jr
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Khalil Rountree Jr (-108) vs Hill, Risk 1.08 Units to Win 1
& Parlay Piece, See Below
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Rafael Fiziev (+124) vs Ignacio Bahamondes (-148)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Lightweight
Rafael Fiziev started his UFC career with a 6-1 record. Three of those wins came via knockout, including versus former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos and recent title challenger Renato Moicano. His success and exciting style led to him getting a high-profile fight against Justin Gaethje, and the fight delivered. It was an absolute war that Fiziev lost by a tight majority decision. After that fight, Fiziev fought another hot prospect in Mateusz Gamrot and sustained a devastating leg injury in the second round. He missed a year and a half of action but came back versus Justin Gaethje in March of this year. It was a spectacular fight, and Fiziev again lost on the scorecards. That fight was on short notice, so having a full camp should help Fiziev. Additionally, Fiziev is Azerbaijani, so he will be fighting in front of an extremely friendly crowd. He has great power and an unconventional striking style that is hard for most opponents to read. His striking defense is a red flag, and his differential is slightly negative, which makes him a major outlier among all fighters ranked in the top 15 in any weight class.
Ignacio Bahamondes is 6-2 in the UFC, with both of his losses coming on the scorecards. Five of his UFC wins have come via finish (3 KO, 2 submission). He fights at a very high pace, landing over seven significant strikes per minute. Additionally, he is an outlier when it comes to size. He is 6’2” with a 75.5” reach. These measurements should play a role in this fight because Rafael Fiziev is six inches shorter and has a similar disadvantage in reach.
Bahamondes is peaking at the right time, with his best fights in the UFC coming in his last three. He submitted Jalin Turner and knocked out Manuel Torres and Christos Giagos. Both he and Fiziev very rarely engage in takedown attempts, and Fiziev probably does not want to initiate the ground game because of Bahamondes’ ability to find submissions with his long limbs. This line has been steaming towards Bahamondes, and the line has completely flipped with Fiziev actually opening as a -135 favorite. I agree with the line move. Both fighters are kickboxers at their core, but Bahamondes has taken less damage in his last several fights, and his better striking defense and higher volume should be the difference.
FIGHT WINNER: Ignacio Bahamondes
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Ignacio Bahamondes (-137, BetOnline) vs Fiziev, Risk 1.37 Units to Win 1
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Curtis Blaydes (-250) vs Rizvan Kuniev (+205)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Heavyweight
Blaydes is one of the best heavyweight fighters in the world. It is easy to remember his low points, the five knockout losses, but it also must be noted that those losses came against the best heavyweight strikers in the world (Francis Ngannou x2, Derrick Lewis, Sergei Pavlovich, and Tom Aspinall). And then there are his wins against basically every other contender in the division over the last seven years. He is a wrestler first and is undoubtedly the best pure wrestler in the heavyweight division. His striking is not great, but it is good enough to set up his wrestling attacks. He is 13-5 (1 NC) in the organization and has eight wins via knockout. He lands 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, which is absolutely incredible considering he is a heavyweight and has fought some of the best in the division.
Rizvan Kuniev is a relatively recent addition to the UFC. Prior to coming to the big leagues, he was a top prospect in PFL. In his debut in the 2023 regular season he knocked out Renan Ferreira, and the sky was the limit. But… the fight was overturned to a no contest because Kuniev tested positive for nearly every anabolic steroid in the book. Then Renan Ferreira went on to win the 2023 PFL heavyweight championship and the accompanying $1,000,000 prize. Kuniev rebounded from the embarrassment with a first-round Contender Series knockout last August.
Since that fight, he has had three UFC fights scheduled that have fizzled out due to injuries, illness, and reschedules. This is actually the third time Kuniev has been scheduled to fight Blaydes. Kuniev has shown great power in lesser organizations, but it is yet to be seen if it will show up versus Blaydes. Additionally, his grappling defense will be tested like never before. Additionally, his two career losses have come against guys who made it to the UFC but did not last in Justin Willis and Darko Stosic. I think Blaydes should win, but there are lots of questions about Kuniev that need to be answered before I am comfortable betting on him.
FIGHT WINNER: Curtis Blaydes
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Pass
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Myktybek Orolbai (-155) vs Tofiq Musayev (+130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
Catchweight (165)
Myktybek Orolbai has to be considered one of the toughest fighters in the lightweight division after his performance in a loss to Mateusz Rebecki. Orolbai looked like he was out of the fight numerous times, but ultimately was able to nearly finish the fight in its final seconds. The final result was a split decision and the second loss in Orolbai’s career. He proved that he is nearly impossible to get out of the cage, and no matter what the situation, he is going to continue to plod forward, apply pressure, and seek a finish. He has an 85% finish rate in victories and is capable of winning with his fists or with a submission.
Tofiq Masayev is a 35-year-old Azerbaijani making his UFC debut. It may appear he is being put on this card to get more locals on the card, but that is far from the truth. Musayev had a very accomplished career outside of the UFC with a 7-1 record in Rizin and a victory over Patricky Pitbull in the Bellator vs. Rizin event in 2019. He is 22-5 as a pro fighter with 82% of his wins coming via knockout. He has been inactive for a year and a half and will be facing the toughest test of his career. I also worry about his ability to deal with the pressure Orolbai will bring from the opening bell. The time off may be what Musayev needed, but rusty and on the biggest stage of his career is quite a bit of adversity to face.
FIGHT WINNER: Myktybek Orolbai
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Pass
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Nazim Sadykhov (-410) vs Nikolas Motta (+320)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+105)
Lightweight
Nazim Sadykhov is 3-0-1 in the UFC but has dealt with some adversity in his career. He had a 14-month break between his third and fourth fights because of opponents dealing with injuries and withdrawing last minute. That said, when he returned to action in February versus Ismael Bonfim, he did not miss a beat, winning via doctor stoppage after round one as a +190 underdog. He is an all-action fighter with all of his UFC victories coming via finish, and 90% of his pro wins have avoided the judges’ scorecards. There is a big red flag in Sadykhov’s metrics when it comes to his striking numbers. He has a negative significant striker differential and sub-50% striking accuracy as well as a sub-50% striking defense rate. But he is dangerous in grappling exchanges and has shown an ability to take a punch and survive in deep water.
Nikolas Motta is 3-2 (1 NC) in the UFC but is finding his form. He is 2-0 in his last two fights, despite being a sizable underdog in both. He has finishing power and has landed four knockdowns in the UFC. His takedown defense rate is solid at 56%, and he has an 82% takedown defense rate. If this fight becomes a wild exchange of strikes, Motta has a legitimate puncher’s chance, but if the fight gets to the ground, Motta could be in trouble. Additionally, his striking accuracy rate of 37% could be a real problem. Furthermore, this is a “home game” for Sadykhov, and every fan in the arena will be rooting for Motta to go down.
FIGHT WINNER: Nazim Sadykhov
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Muhammad Naimov (-258) vs Bogdan Grad (+210)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-245) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+185)
Featherweight
Muhammad Naimov is 4-1 in the UFC with two wins via TKO. He famously debuted on short notice up a weight class and won via knockout versus Jamie Mullarkey. Naimov is a well-rounded fighter who has landed at least one takedown in his last four fights. He is not an accurate striker and also lacks high-end defense. His greatest strength is being able to fight in any position as opposed to being dominant in any one area.
Bogdan Grad is 1-0 in the UFC after going 1-1 in Contender Series. He turned some heads in February when he debuted by beating the more seasoned Lucas Alexander via second-round knockout. He is an aggressive finisher who has avoided the judges’ scorecards in 12 of his 15 career professional wins. That being said, before the UFC, he did not fight the highest level competition, and I am a bit skeptical that his finishing ways will continue versus top-caliber opponents. At this price, Grad is intriguing, but I am not ready to take the flyer on him yet.
FIGHT WINNER: Muhammad Naimov
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Pass
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Seokhyeon Ko (+370) vs Oban Elliott (-485)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Welterweight
Seokhyeon Ko is debuting in the UFC after earning a contract in Contender Series last fall. Ko is a southpaw with six of his 11 pro victories coming via knockout. He has never finished with a submission, but did land two takedowns in Contender Series. This fight was taken on relatively short notice because Oban Elliott was actually supposed to fight May 31st. That fight was cancelled due to Elliott facing visa issues, but the organization was quick to get the Welsh upstart into action. Elliott is 12-2 as a pro, 3-0 in the UFC, and on an eight-fight win streak overall. Not necessarily known for his power, Elliott has taken a step in the right direction when it comes to striking. He knocked out Bassil Hafez in November of 2024 and earned a performance of the night bonus. Elliott has very good control and can stop his opponent’s offense with takedowns and clinch control. I expect Elliott to do what is expected here and get his hand raised.
FIGHT WINNER: Oban Elliott
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Parlay: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Ismail Naurdiev (+145) vs Jun Yong Park (-175)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Middleweight
Ismail Naurdiev is in phase two of his UFC career. He went 2-2 in the organization before getting cut. Surprisingly, his results on the regional scene were not stellar, and he went 3-3 in Brave CF after his time under the UFC’s bright lights. He was given a chance to fight Bruno Silva last October and got back in the UFC win column. He is a fairly well-rounded fighter, but his grappling defense is going to be tested. Jun Yong Park is one of the better control wrestlers in the middleweight division. His striking is rudimentary, but if he gets his hands on opponents, they usually end up on the mat and don’t get back up until the round ends or the finish is found. Park is 8-3 in the organization with all of the metrics you like to see in dependable fighters. A positive strike differential, a willingness to wrestle, and the ability to find submissions. I think that this fight will be just another day at the office for Park.
FIGHT WINNER: Jun Yong Park
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Parlay- Jun Yong Park To Win, Hill/Rountree Fight Does Not Go The Distance -109, Risk 1.09 Units to win 1
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Darya Zheleznyakova (+210) vs Melissa Mullins (-258)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
Women’s Bantamweight
Darya Zheleznyakova and Melissa Mullins are familiar foes. They faced off in Ares FC 3.5 years ago, and Mellisa Mullins won via TKO in the first round. A lot can change with years of training, and Mullins has not exactly been reliable in the UFC. She is 2-1 in the UFC and has missed weight twice. Her loss came as a -350 favorite versus Nora Cornolle. Her most recent win came against a late replacement fighter in Klaudia Sygula. The hype is there for Mullins, but I am yet to be impressed with her professionalism and fight acumen. Darya Zheleznyakova is 1-1 in the UFC. She has defeated Monstserrat Rendon, who is 6-1 as a pro. More recently, she was submitted by Ailin Perez, who is one of the top prospects in the division. Both of these women have a finish rate of greater than 50%, but sometimes, familiar foes yield more conservative fight plans. If I had to bet this fight, I’d take a flyer on the dog, because she has been good at avoiding striking damage, but I can’t get there with free will.
FIGHT WINNER: Melissa Mullins
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Pass
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Irina Alekseeva (-305) vs Klaudia Sygula (+245)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-110)
Women’s Bantamweight
Irina Alekseeva is a good marketer, donning the nickname “Russian Ronda” as a tribute to Ronda Rousey. I’m certain her fighting skills are as good as her promotional skills. She did win her debut as a +240 favorite via submission, but followed that up with a decision loss to Melissa Mullins. I am not sure of her ceiling, but I do believe she is a UFC-caliber athlete. I can’t say the same thing about Klaudia Sygula. She was taken out in the second round as a replacement opponent for Melissa Mullins and has very little high-level experience on her pre-UFC resume. I think Alekseeva is going to get the fight to the ground and has a chance to finish from there.
FIGHT WINNER: Irina Alekseeva
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Parlay- Irina Alekseeva to Win, Oban Elliott To Win, Sadykhov/Motta Fight Does Not Go the Distance (+133), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.33 Units
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Tagir Ulanbekov (-500) vs Azat Maksum (+380)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
Flyweight
Tagir Ulanbekov has quietly put together a solid UFC resume. He is 5-1 in the organization and a dominant grappler, but he lacks any sort of striking power. He is 16-2 as a pro with 0 wins via knockout. He is a submission threat with two wins via sub in the UFC. This is also a replacement fight as initially Ulanbekov was scheduled to face former flyweight title challenger Kyoji Horiguchi, but the fight was scrapped due to Horiguchi withdrawing. He is now facing a talented, but relatively untested opponent in Azat Maksum.
Maksum is 1-1 in the UFC with a split decision win over veteran Tyson Nam in his debut and a decision loss to Charles Johnson (after winning the first round on all three judges’ scorecards). Maksum will be aggressive, but is not all that accurate. He has landed two takedowns in both of his UFC fights, but I’m not sure he will want to grapple with Ulanbekov. If I had to play a long shot on this card, Maksum would be my choice because he can crowd Ulanbekov and make him uncomfortable. Still, Ulanbekov is more experienced and more technically sound, so he is a rightful favorite.
FIGHT WINNER: Tagir Ulanbekov
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Pass
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Mohammed Usman (+130) vs Hamdy Abdelwahab (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Heavyweight
This projects to be an absolute slog of a heavyweight bout. Mohammed Usman is nicknamed “The Motor.” However, his last two performances have been anything but exemplary of that moniker. He is 3-2 in the UFC but has lost his last two fights on the scorecards due to a lack of activity and willingness to take risks in winning moments. He has a -1 significant strike differential despite having a dangerous 79” reach and one-punch knockout power. He does not do a good job of earning respect from opponents.
Hamdy Abdelwahab is one of the luckier fighters in the organization. The former Egyptian wrestling Olympian has two split decision wins in the UFC, but the first was ruled a no contest because he tested positive for a failed drug test. He is a slightly more accurate striker than Usman, but also struggles with activity levels. He is a great wrestler and has landed four of five attempts in the UFC. Usman also struggles with takedown defense, which is likely going to be the difference in this contest.
FIGHT WINNER: Hamdy Abdelwahab
UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BET: Pass
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UFC AZERBAIJAN BEST BETS RECAP
- Khalil Rountree Jr (-108) vs Hill, Risk 1.08 Units to Win 1
- Ignacio Bahamondes (-137 BetOnline), vs Fiziev, Risk 1.37 Units to Win 1
- Parlay- Jun Yong Park To Win, Hill/Rountree Fight Does Not Go The Distance -109, Risk 1.09 Units to win 1
- Parlay- Irina Alekseeva to Win, Oban Elliott To Win, Sadykhov/Motta Fight Does Not Go the Distance (+133), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.33 Units
