UFC Belgrade Predictions:
Belgrade, Serbia hosts its first UFC Fight Night, with the headline fight being local fighter Uros Medic taking on American mixed martial artist Daniel Rodriguez.
The fight slate offers a full house of rabid Serbian fans, 13 bouts populated with an international set of athletes arriving from some seventeen countries. Twelve local/regional athletes will have the honor of fighting in front of a crowd that is looking for violence.
Unfortunately, and similar to last week, nine of the 13 bouts on this card are lined with the favorite -250 or higher! I will be measured in releases with this card.
Last week, Mike Davis got outwrestled by a dynamically equipped wrestler. However, Nurullo Aliev, the wrestler who defeated Davis, put absolutely no damage on him, nor did he try to ‘fight.’ He wrestled.
The second release was for the ‘main event to start round 2’ -250, which was a winner. I tied that side to Mackenzie Dern -198. Dern competes in UFC 330 on August 15th against Canadian Gillian Robertson. That parlay pays +110 should it come to fruition, and I believe that’s in fact what will transpire.
Digital results 2026: 13-13-1 -.45u
On to Belgrade!
Uros Medic -365 vs. Daniel Rodriguez +300
Welterweight (170 pounds) Main event
Thirteenth-ranked welterweight Daniel Rodriguez is a street-fighting man. Groomed for fighting in the streets of Los Angeles and its prison system, ‘DRod’ as he is called, has no fear of anything.
He’s competed in three separate divisions in mixed martial arts, and as a welterweight in the UFC, he’s accrued a 10-4 record against pedigreed, worthy talent.
Rodriguez is a purple belt in BJJ, but grappling aside, Rodriguez wants to kick, punch, elbow, and knee his way into finishing opponents. Four of Rodriguez’s 10 victories in the UFC have come via finish.
Rodriguez will own a three-inch reach advantage, and the southpaw is six years the elder athlete in this fight at the ripe age of 39.
One aspect of this confrontation is that in July of 2025, Rodriguez was scheduled to fight. However, he was in Mexico and was forced to spend several months in prison.
The lack of appropriate training, the lack of substantial nutrition, and the time spent there had to have taken its toll on a 39-year-old athlete. It is fair to wonder how Rodriguez will respond to the intensity of a UFC battle, even after having some time (perhaps not enough time) to recover and restore his fighting physique and mentality.
Uros Medic is fourteenth ranked in the division. After his last victory, he called out for a UFC event to be held in Serbia, and the UFC granted that wish.
Medic, a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and an orange belt in Judo, sports an 8-3 tally in UFC competition. He competed against worthy competition and enters this bout off an impressive finish of Texan Geoff Neal.
Medic is also a southpaw, so both of these guys being left-handed scrappers will add a degree of oddity to this fight, as two lefties competing against one another is relatively uncommon, and it sets up to be potentially an awkward fight.
Once this bout starts, look for the forward pressure of Medic to clash immediately with the frenetic pace that Rodriguez wants to impose upon the native Serbian. Like two rams clashing on the side of the mountain, these two fighters will each take the fight directly to the other with the sole purpose of leaving the other quivering on the canvas.
Medic’s six-year age advantage must be considered, as well as the fact he fights at home against an American who must make the trip into Serbia, then prepare his body and mind for the weight cut and finally the competition.
As is often the case, the UFC chose Medic’s opponent carefully and with the express interest of offering Medic a fighter he can handle and one he may finish in order to stir excitement into the Serbian crowd.
Medic, by the way, has had his last five bouts (4-1 record) end in the first round.
Tough spot for Rodriguez.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -200
Strong lean over
Vlasto Cepo -280 vs. Gilbert Urbina +235
Middleweight (185 pounds)
With another chalk-laden fight slate, we’ll take to the parlay position as we did last week. In this fight, the ‘subject’ is American fighter Gilbert Urbina, who is 1-3 in UFC competition. Urbina holds advantages in UFC experience and height and is a very active striker who lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute while accepting 4.65.
Urbina does offer some wrestling aptitude and is able to execute the takedown. However, his strength, his strike defense, and his suspect chin make him an easy mark for a local debuting power striker.
In Cepo, we get the aforementioned pumped-up power striker. Cepo is able to compete in front of his home countrymen for this debut and against a target in Urbina who has been knocked out by the middle of the second round in three of his last four bouts.
This fight is designed to offer Serbian fans a local fighter in position to shine and should perform as expected against Urbina, who is game and willing but ill-equipped to fend off the force of this Serbian slugger.
Parlay time:
UFC Belgrade Best Bet: Cepo -280 to Mackenzie Dern -198
(Dern fights Gillian Robertson on UFC 330 August 15) +104
Please note: This column holds Dern -198 as the second leg of a parlay (Ankalaev/Guskov starts round 2) from last week’s column, which pays +110. Clearly I favor Ms. Dern in her bout against the Canadian Robertson.
Friday late morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch all my final releases for this card there. Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!
