UFC Vegas 124 Predictions:
Fight fans will be treated to another fight card at the UFC Meta/APEX facility again this week before trucking off to Madison Square Garden for next week’s UFC 334 event, featuring Gane vs. Hokit for the UFC Heavyweight championship.
This week, there are 13 scheduled bouts, six of which are in the 170-pound weight class and above. Heavier men, with their larger bodies and abundance of power in a small cage, can often produce violent finishes, which is why we tune in.
Eight athletes arrive at the APEX from foreign Countries to compete against fighters who live/train in the US. That’s a worthy advantage for fighters who don’t have to parlay travel with the weight cut!
Four fights with more than a five-year youth advantage also warrant investors’ attention.
Last week, ‘Juicy’ Julian Erosa knocked out his South Korean opponent as a +145 underdog, pushing digital profits this year to: 23-17-1 +9.02u
Waldo Cortes-Acosta -225 vs. Johnny Walker +195
Heavyweight (265 pounds) Main Event
This fight came together in a very short time, as the original main event of Bonfim vs. Brady had to be postponed because of a Brady injury. On less than three weeks’ notice, these two behemoth blasters will enter that phone booth-sized cage and throw down.
The Dominican Republic’s Cortes-Acosta, who trains in Phoenix, AZ, enters this fight off two losses, but one was to who most consider the real challenger to the heavyweight title, Alexander Volkov. Then, in his last fight, Waldo had things going his way until the third round, when Curtis Blaydes’ experience, IQ and wrestling earned him a win over Waldo.
Waldo, ranked eighth in the division, has a boxing background and is a blue belt in BJJ. He is aggressive, has profuse power, and is primarily a striking-based fighter, which helps explain his difficulty with Blaydes.
In this fight, Waldo will not have to worry as much about defending takedowns, as this battle is set up to be waged on the feet, where Waldo’s athleticism and footwork will dominate his opponent.
Waldo does have great ground-and-pound, and if he gets to the canvas in top position, that can be a serious weapon.
Facing Waldo is Brazil’s Johnny Walker, who is now training between England and Las Vegas, so it’s good timing that these two can get together for our entertainment on but weeks’ notice.
Walker, 12th-ranked in the division after just one heavyweight fight, used to be a light heavyweight fighter with a bantamweight chin. Many believe that his extreme weight cuts made him susceptible to the KO. Taking so much fluid out of the body has proven to be detrimental to being able to absorb power shots to the cranium.
Walker’s last fight seemed to prove that point. He knocked Mick Parkin, a decent heavyweight fighter, out cold in a fight that was held on October 3.
It says plenty about Walker (and Waldo’s) conditioning and mentality that these two men can be ready for a foundational fight in the division so soon after being active in other fights just weeks ago!
While Waldo is an aggressive forward-pressing power striker/kicker, Walker is a bit more flamboyant in his expression of fighting.
Walker will be the taller and faster man in the cage. He can launch strikes, kicks, elbows, and flying knees at all times and from any standing position, and his flying knees are legendary for their destructive ability.
While Waldo brings the blunt-force power, Walker brings the explosive, artistic, precision strikes and kicks, and he radiates danger with the flamboyant striking ability he has over most heavyweights. In this one, I believe he’ll struggle to maneuver against a man like Waldo, who has more deft/articulate footwork and evasive defensive skills that many regard as critical for this fight.
Can Waldo get inside on Walker, control/muffle his movement, and apply power strikes to test his chin? Walker’s chin has been his Achilles, and if this move to heavy helps him overcome that fault, then we must consider Walker a top heavyweight with a win over Waldo.
So we have two huge, powerful men in a small 25-foot cage, each looking to propel themselves up the rankings in a heavyweight division that is starved for fresh talent.
I handicap Waldo walloping Walker.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -195, but I am also seeing some 2.5 round totals.
Let’s allow the week to unfold and keep a close eye on that total. Over 1.5 seems a very sound consideration at this time despite the heavy price.
Tatiana Suarez -185 vs. Virna Jandiroba +160
Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds) Co-Main Event
This is a great matchup because both women are challenged in effective striking and stand-up, yet both have strong grappling/wrestling skills.
Third-ranked Suarez earned gold at the Pan American Championships in wrestling. She also holds a black belt in BJJ. Suarez is huge for the division, and her strength, wrestling prowess, and submission game are all world-class in nature.
Suarez is mean as a junkyard dog. She is relentless in her pursuit of the clasp in order to press her competition against the fence, then use her legs to affect the change of position from standing to grounded.
From the ground, Suarez is a suffocating force, and after her setback in 2025 to Champion Weili Zhang, she refocused her efforts to earn the title. Since then, she decisioned Amanda Lemos and then submitted 10th-ranked Loopy Godinez in her last bout. Suarez is all about unrelenting pressure wrestling.
Second-ranked Virna Jandiroba is a world-class BJJ practitioner decorated with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a Green/white prajied in Muay Thai.
Jandiroba’s ground game relies more on position and submission than on the grinding pressure her opponent uses. Striking for both of these women is base so each will look to control the fight on their own terms.
For Jandiroba, her best performances are against women who are less equipped in ground acumen than she. She struggled mightily against champion Mackenzie Dern (twice) and in her bout against Carla Esparza, an undersized pressure wrestler. All three were losses.
I have been taught as a foundation for my handicapping that world-class wrestling is kryptonite to world-class BJJ practitioners.
An original Gracie protégé now coaching and developing fighters in the UFC taught me this, so I am confident the advice is sound.
Once the bell for this fight chimes, I believe we’ll see two women looking to impress their own ground specialty upon the other.
The difference here will be Suarez’s size, strength, three-year youth advantage, and, finally, her hunger as she yearns for another shot at the title she most wants to capture.
Suarez, who has excelled at every level in her career, opened at -155 and is now -185. That’s a buy!
UFC Vegas 124 Best Bet: Tatiana Suarez -185
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -350
With the total lined as it is, let’s not overlook the fact that these women have oh-so-little finishing ability and are most likely to go to a decision.
Suarez via decision is a price that has not been released yet, but one I am very interested in.
Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms as well as on GambLou.com. Check out the pod for this week’s final releases. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the bouts!
