UFC Des Moines Predictions – Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Des Moines best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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Cory “The Sandman” Sandhagen (-520) vs Deiveson “Deus Da Guerra” Figueiredo (+390)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+160)
Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen is squarely viewed as a bantamweight gatekeeper at this point, which makes it all the more surprising he is fighting Deiveson Figueiredo, who is probably at least two fights away from a title shot. That is not an indictment of Sandhagen’s skills or abilities, but more of a top-down look at the bantamweight landscape. Sandhagen is one of the more well-rounded fighters in any division, and he is an easy out for absolutely no one. He is an active striker and has good striking defense. He can grapple better than most fighters with his length (5’11”, 70” reach) and is always a submission threat. He is 10-4 in the UFC with all four losses coming to bantamweight champions or title challengers (Aljamain Sterling, TJ Dillashaw, Petr Yan, Umar Nurmagomedov), and he has turned back numerous contenders. He has defeated respected fighters such as Rob Font, Marlon Vera, Song Yadong, Frankie Edgar and Mario Bautista, but whenever it feels like he is a fight away from a title shot, he falls short. He is currently ranked #4 in the division. I think this price is way too inflated, but I also think he has a great shot at winning. Would he get shoehorned into a title shot? He has never fought Merab Dvalishvili or Sean O’Malley, who will rematch for the belt. However, he lost to two men ranked ahead of him, Umar Nurmagomedov and Petr Yan.
Deiveson Figueiredo was one of the most intimidating flyweights we had ever seen in the UFC. But part of that intimidation was his size. He had to kill himself to get down to 125. Now that he has gotten deep into his 30s, bantamweight is a much more comfortable weight cut. That being said, his raw strength and reach have been neutralized now that he is facing larger opposition. He has done well in the division, winning his first three bouts at 135. However, in his last fight, he challenged one of the true tip of the spear bantamweights in Petr Yan, and he was outclassed. Yan landed more significant strikes than Figueiredo threw and was too big to be physically manhandled. I have a ton of respect for Figueiredo’s career, but at 37 years old, there are red flags, especially considering his size.
I think Sandhagen should be able to control distance and land a greater volume of strikes. I also think that he has prepared to fight plenty of grapplers and will be strong enough to stay upright when Figueiredo attempts takedowns. I do not think a finish is on the menu. I do expect one or two close rounds, but when the final bell rings, we should be looking at a Sandhagen decision. His last three fights have gone to the scorecards after five rounds, and no one outside of Brandon Moreno has gotten Figueiredo out of the ring before the final bell.
FIGHT WINNER: Cory Sandhagen
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Cory Sandhagen wins via dec (-150, FanDuel) vs Figueiredo, Risk 1.5 Units to Win 1
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Reinier de Ridder (+295) vs Bo Nickal (-375)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Middleweight
Reinier de Ridder has not been in the UFC for a long time, but he definitely has had a good time. Two fights, two submission victories for the former two-division ONE FC champion. Overall, he is 19-2 as a professional fighter with both losses coming to the same opponent (at heavyweight and light heavyweight in ONE FC). He is a grappler with a very rudimentary striking game. His first UFC fight was against Gerald Meerschaert, who isn’t great at striking either, but once the fight was on the ground, de Ridder couldn’t be stopped. His second bout was against Kevin Holland. I expected Holland to control distance and beat de Ridder up, but that did not happen. The Dutchman was able to get him to the ground, and it was lights out with another choke. In his limited UFC two-fight sample, his striking accuracy numbers have actually been solid at 57%, but his striking defense has been horrible at just 38%. That being said, this opponent isn’t exactly someone who is known to light guys up on the feet.
Bo Nickal has been the golden goose of the UFC since before he even got a contract. The 29-year-old is now 7-0 and 4-0 in the UFC. He went 2-0 in Contender Series with two finishes before getting a contract. He immediately had fans because of his championship pedigree in the college wrestling ranks. He also has been in a lot of exciting fights, with just one result going to the judges in his short career. That fight was his most recent scrap against Paul Craig. Fans expected a grappling chess match with the wrestler taking on the submission specialist. Instead, the fans saw a boring stand-up affair with neither man willing to test the waters on the ground. There is a risk that this happens here, but I don’t think that is the case because de Ridder will force the issue if it comes down to it.
I think the only way this fight reaches the final bell is if Bo Nickal avoids grappling at all costs. If he does that, he will struggle to get his hand raised. He has only landed more than 10 significant strikes in one fight in the UFC. I think that ego will play a part in this one, which could be dangerous for the American. It’s no accident that de Ridder has an MMA championship. I think Bo Nickal’s reputation has inflated this line. However, I also make him the favorite. My personal line is much closer to -275 than -375, but that doesn’t mean I see value in de Ridder in this case.
FIGHT WINNER: Bo Nickal
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Nickal/de Ridder Under 2.5 Rounds (-128, FanDuel), Risk 1.28 Units to Win 1
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Santiago Ponzinibbio (-142) vs Daniel Rodriguez (+120)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinnibbio is 12-7, and a 63% win rate isn’t going to turn heads. But making his 20th trip to the octagon is impressive and puts him in quite an exclusive club. He is 38 years old and good enough to put on a show. You don’t make it this long in the fight game if you don’t know how to entertain the crowd. Seven of his UFC victories and three of his losses have come via KO. Three of his last four losses have been via split decision. He is always right there because he is hard to take down, hard to hit, and generally is able to land strikes against all opponents. He also has some momentum after finding a third-round knockout versus Carlston Harris in January.
Daniel Rodriguez is also 38 years old and a long-time UFC fighter with an 8-4 record. He is one of the more active strikers in the division, landing an impressive 7.5 significant strikes per minute throughout his career. He is not afraid to eat punches because he is confident he will land more frequently. But he has had trouble against opponents who have strong grappling skills. Rodriguez lost three fights in a row. However, last October, he got back on track with a split decision win versus Alex Morono.
This fight is going to be very close and tough to score. Rodriguez will land more striking volume, Ponzinibbio is likely to land bigger shots, and if the fight goes to the ground, he is probably going to be the one initiating the transition. I do not think this fight gets finished before the final bell unless Ponzinibbio lands a big kick. I think Ponzinibbio should win this fight, but the fact that he has lost so many split decisions, coupled with the fact that Rodriguez projects to land more strikes, I am reluctant to lock in a bet.
FIGHT WINNER: Santiago Ponzinibbio
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Pass
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Montel Jackson (-225) vs Daniel Marcos (+185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-230) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+175)
Bantamweight
Montel Jackson was on his way to having an unceremonious UFC career. He started out 3-2 with one win via finish. He has now won five fights in a row, with three of these wins coming via first-round knockout. He is no longer unceremonious, he has momentum, he has juice, and the 33-year-old has the potential to make a run at the top before he hangs up the gloves. If he can continue finishing respected opponents. When discussing the main event, I mentioned some of the strange dynamics at the top regarding who will fight for the title after the Dvalishvili/O’Malley rematch. Jackson just finally earned a spot in the rankings at #15. This may seem like he is far from fighting for hardware, but a bantamweight fighting as often as Jackson, and getting decisive results, has the potential to jump to the front of the line if he keeps on doing what he has been doing. But I do not think he is ready for that type of fight yet, and I don’t think his strength of schedule is anything special, considering the depth of the bantamweight division. Despite having an impressive knockout record, Jackson truly separates from unranked fighters because he has excellent striking defense, only absorbing 1.42 significant strikes per minute. Additionally, he averages 3.41 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, so he is far from a one-punch pony.
Daniel Marcos has a downright gaudy 17-0 record as a professional mixed martial artist. He is 4-0 in the UFC, which is impressive considering his opponents on the regional scene were absolute nobodies. Three of his four UFC victories have gone to a decision. Despite being relatively experienced as a 32-year-old, he does have a bit of an issue with coming out strong and slowing down late in fights. Stylistically, he is almost purely a boxer, landing nearly six significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.25. Additionally, he defends 88% of his opponent’s takedown attempts, exhibiting just how serious Marcos is about this sport. Lots of guys can strike and have no idea how to avoid getting taken down. Marcos has a legitimate chance to win this fight, but this will be his toughest test to date because Jackson is extremely well-rounded. I can’t bet this fight, but I do think Jackson ends his opponent’s undefeated streak in Des Moines.
FIGHT WINNER: Montel Jackson
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Pass
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Cameron Smotherman (+124) vs Serhiy Sidey (-148)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
Bantamweight
Cameron Smotherman is 12-4 as a pro fighter and 1-0 in the UFC. He lost in Contender Series but was still given a chance at the UFC level because of an impressive highlight reel of finishes earned on the regional scene. Smotherman was a +400 underdog in his UFC debut as a late replacement opponent for veteran Jake Hadley. He won that fight going away, outstriking his opponent handily on his way to a unanimous decision victory. He was far from accurate in that fight, but he was extremely active, landing 96 of his 259 significant strike attempts. He got KO’d when he fought in the Contender Series versus a dangerous opponent. That being said, I give more weight to his full fight versus Hadley than his few minutes on a Tuesday night in the fall.
Serihy Sidey has had an up-and-down trajectory in the UFC. He won in Contender Series via first-round knockout. His UFC debut was a rematch versus the opponent he defeated in Contender Series, but the encore had a different ending. Sidey lost via split decision. He got his hand raised in his second UFC fight, a split decision versus Garrett Armfield. Overall, I am not confident that Sidey’s potential is as high as some would lead you to believe. In 30+ minutes of tracked fight time by the UFC, his statistical profile is not all that impressive. His Striking offense is fine, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired. Additionally, he has not successfully grappled in the cage. Sidey will have a height and reach advantage, but I definitely prefer Smotherman’s strength of schedule.
FIGHT WINNER: Cameron Smotherman
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Cameron Smotherman (+124) vs Sidey, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
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Jeremy Stephens (+470) vs Mason Jones (-650)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
Lightweight
Jeremy Stephens’ return is one of the bigger surprises of 2025. Stephens has 50 professional MMA fights with a 29-21 record. But the 38-year-old has not fought in the UFC since getting submitted by Mateusz Gamrot in July of 2021. Since leaving the UFC, he had an unsuccessful 1-2 record in PFL, then boxed Jose Aldo to a draw in Jorge Masvidal’s Gamebred Boxing. He also lost a boxing match to failed mixed martial artist Chris Avila. However, it hasn’t been all losses since leaving MMA’s top organization. His last three sanctioned fights have been in Bare Knuckle Fighting Championships, and he has gone 3-0. The decision to come back to the UFC is a bit surprising, but it’s the top-paying organization in the world, and he has given enough to the sport to have the right to go out on his own terms. His peak in the organization came in 2017-2018 when in a three fight streak he beat Gilbert Melendez, Doo Ho Choi, and Josh Emmett in successive bouts. Since then, it has been much more bad than good.
Mason Jones just turned 30 and is 15-2 as a professional mixed martial artist. The Welshman is back in the UFC after getting sent back to the minors. He went 1-2 with one no contest in 2021 through 2022. He went back to Cage Warriors and won four more fights, getting his record up to an impressive 12-0 in that feeder organization. All of his fights in the UFC went to a decision in his first stint in the organization. This price is a bit crazy considering Jones lost his last fight in the organization as a -400 favorite. Jones tried to grapple in all of his fights last time he was in the organization, and historically, Jeremy Stephens doesn’t have the best takedown defense. But there is a good chance that the elder statesman has the faster hands. I think a finish is in store in this fight, and I do not think the favorite is a safe parlay piece.
FIGHT WINNER: Mason Jones
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Stephens/Jones UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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Yana Santos (+110) vs Miesha Tate (-130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-410) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+290)
Women’s Bantamweight
Yana Santos is now 35 and potentially approaching the final act of her mixed martial arts career. She is 15-8 as a pro and 5-5 in the UFC. She is 1-3 in her last four fights, albeit those losses have mostly been against high-level fighters. She won via decision in her last fight versus Chelsea Chandler in August. She is a fairly accurate striker, but historically, her takedown defense has been her downfall, with three of her losses coming to opponents who won the takedown battle.
Miesha Tate is also far from a spring chicken at 38 years old. Back in 2011, she was the Strikeforce Women’s Bantamweight Champion, and then in 2016, she won the belt in the UFC. She has not fought since 2023, a rear-naked choke victory versus Julia Avila as a +115 underdog, but overall, she is 2-2 since 2021. She is more grappler than striker, meaning she should have some inherent matchup advantages versus Yana Santos. However, her lack of recent cage time could play a factor. Additionally, if the takedowns don’t come, she is liable to get lapped on the feet.
FIGHT WINNER: Miesha Tate
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Pass
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Azamat Bekoev (-345) vs Ryan Loder (+275)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Middleweight
Azamat Bekoev is 19-3 as a pro fighter and 1-0 in the UFC. He debuted versus Zach Reese in January, and it was one-way action on his way to a first-round TKO victory. The result was important because he made his way to the UFC without having to go through Contender Series through his reputation as a finisher. Many fighters have fallen short when they share the cage with UFC-caliber fighters, but that was not the case for Bekoev. In just over three minutes of fight time, he scored 2:14 of control time and landed 21 significant strikes on his way to a ground-and-pound victory, though Zach Reese is someone who has only looked good versus fighters who don’t belong in the UFC.
Ryan Loder is a The Ultimate Fighter champion who won that title in his UFC debut last August. He was a slight underdog versus Robert Valentin and was able to find the ground-and-pound victory in the second round. In 6:49 of fight time, he had 4:45 of control. He landed 42 of 52 significant strikes, and he ensured his opponent never got started, landing just one of two. But virtually all of his strikes landed came on the ground, and it is yet to be seen if that ground-dominant style will work versus a grappler with Bekoev’s quality.
FIGHT WINNER: Azamat Bekoev
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Marina Rodriguez (+195) vs Gillian Robertson (-238)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Women’s Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez began her UFC career by going 6-1-2, defeating strawweight stalwarts such as Amanda Ribas, Mackenzie Dern, and Yan Xiaonan. However, since November 2022, she is 1-4, with split decision losses in her last two bouts. Like many striking specialists, her takedown defense is usually her downfall. And like many strawweights, she lacks true one-punch KO power. That means that she can be winning the first minutes of a round, but then get taken down and dominated until the bell. That’s why her fights are tough to score, and overall, she has been involved in three split decisions and two draws in the UFC in 14 UFC fights.
Gillian Robertson is 29 with a 12-6 UFC record. She appears to be coming into her prime, riding a three-fight winning streak and having won five of her last six bouts. That being said, she was a favorite in each of those wins and the underdog in the loss. This line indicates that Robertson’s takedowns will tell the story of this fight, and for good reason. In all 12 of her UFC wins, she has landed more takedowns than her opponent. In three of her losses, her opponents landed more takedowns. Her path to victory is quite clear, especially considering Rodriguez’s inability to stop herself from hitting the mat. Additionally, she formally fought as a flyweight, but after cutting the 10 additional pounds, she has looked better than ever.
FIGHT WINNER: Gillian Robertson
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Parlay Gillian Robertson/Azamat Bekoev (-120), Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1
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Gaston Bolanos (-130) vs Quang Le (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Bantamweight
Gaston Bolanos is 8-4 as a pro fighter with all of his bouts taking place in high-level organizations. Prior to dedicating himself to mixed martial arts full time, he was a muay thai and kickboxing competitor. He then went into Bellator and put together a 6-3 record. He is now 2-1 in the UFC. In November, he upset Cortavious Romious as a +190 underdog. All six of his wins in Bellator came via KO, but both of his UFC wins have gone to the judges’ scorecards. His takedown defense is suspect, which figures to be a key to this matchup. If the fight stays standing and at distance, he has a clear and distinct advantage.
Quang Le was an 8-0 pro fighter before coming to the UFC. After two fights in the sports’ top organization, he is 8-2. His debut came in a short-notice fight versus Chris Gutierrez. He held his own but ultimately lost via decision. He followed that fight up with a wild fight against Long Xiao. He was KO’d in the third round after both guys were on the verge of being finished multiple times. I think Quang Le is solid, but I am not sold on him being UFC material. The fight Le had versus Long Xiao is one that could affect the rest of his career due to the amount of damage he absorbed.
FIGHT WINNER: Gaston Bolanos
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Pass
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Don’Tale Mayes (+260) vs. Thomas Petersen (-325)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Heavyweight
I’ve felt like Don’Tale Mayes was on the verge of getting cut from the UFC for his last several fights, but he is still here. He is 2-5 in his last six fights, with his wins coming against old man Andrei Arlovski and blown-up light heavyweight Caio Machado. But availability is the most important ability, and Don’Tale Mayes has fought six times since February 2023. The results are mostly bad, and the fights are not often exciting, but when the UFC needs a heavyweight to step into the ring, he is always ready to make the walk. Although his results aren’t always impressive, his stature is. He is 6’6” with an 81” reac,h making him one of the largest guys in the heavyweight division. He has a negative strike differential over the course of his career and a modest 57% takedown defense rate. Three of his six UFC losses have come via submission, but he has never been knocked out. The submission defense figures to come into play in this matchup.
Thomas Petersen is far from dominant physically. At 6’1” and with a 74” reach, he is not an imposing figure in this weight class. He is 1-2 in the UFC after winning via submission in the Contender Series. His one win in the organization was a decision versus Mohammed Usman. He was knocked out by Shamil Gaziev in February. In lesser organizations, he was a finisher, but I don’t think he has the stature to hurt UFC heavyweights the same way. I believe he is well-coached and has a solid fight IQ, but these odds are a bit outrageous. Don’Tale Mayes was a smaller underdog versus Shamil Gaziev, a fighter on a totally different plane than Peterson.
If Peterson gets his ground game going, sure, he has a shot, but the size disadvantage will play a factor.
FIGHT WINNER: Don’Tale Mayes
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Don’Tale Mayes (+260) vs Petersen, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.6
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Juliana Miller (+205) vs Ivana Petrovic (-250)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-245) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+185)
Women’s Flyweight
Juliana Miller is 3-3 as a professional fighter and 1-2 in the UFC. However, her record is a bit misleading, considering she is a The Ultimate Fighter champion. She lost to Veronica Hardy as a -400 favorite after winning the TV show and then was KO’d by Luana Santos in her sophomore performance. She has not been active in over a year and a half and is looking to reignite a hype train that got derailed as soon as it got going. She has a high-level grappling background, but her striking has been an issue at the UFC level.
Ivana Petrovic is also 1-2 in the UFC. Her one win in the organization came against a fighter who should probably be competing in strawweight. But she is an exciting fighter who has won inside the distance in six of her victories. Additionally, her most recent loss came via split decision as a +190 underdog to Jamey-Lyn Horth. She is not a very good striker, which means Miller has a shot in this fight. There is a good chance that one of these women finds a submission.
FIGHT WINNER: Juliana Miller
UFC DES MOINES BEST BET: Juliana Miller (+205) vs Petrovic, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.05
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UFC DES MOINES BEST BETS RECAP
– Cory Sandhagen via dec (-150, FanDuel) vs Figueiredo, Risk 1.5 Units to Win 1
– Nickal/de Ridder Under 2.5 Rounds (-128, FanDuel), Risk 1.28 Units to Win 1
– Cameron Smotherman (+124) vs Sidey, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
– Stephens/Jones UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
– Parlay Gillian Robertson/Azamat Bekoev (-120), Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1
– Don’Tale Mayes (+260) vs Petersen, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.6
– Juliana Miller (+205) vs Petrovic, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.05
