UFC Fight Night Seattle Predictions:
UFC Fight Night Seattle features 22 international athletes competing in the large 30-foot cage and in front of a live Washington State crowd.
Over the last few weeks, this fight card has lost three fights and had others altered with late replacements. As is always the case, the UFC has kept the card compelling, especially the main slate of fights which are all competitive and have interesting storylines.
The encouraging news is six of the remaining 11 scheduled fights are comprised of men weighing 170 pounds and larger. The matchmakers may have targeted Seattle for some ‘big man violence’ as finish rates for those larger weight classes are higher than the finish rates for fights involving athletes weighing 155 pounds and below.
There are no combatants from Seattle on the card, however. Ricky Simon, currently training in Portland, is from Washington, as is Andre Fili.
Digital results 2024: 2-5 -4.25u
Henry Cejudo +240 vs. Song Yadong -280
Bantamweight (135 pounds) Main Event
Cejudo is a two-division world title holder in the UFC and an Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling for the United States. If he needed other accolades, he is a yellow belt in Shotokan Karate also, which is a Chinese martial art involving throwing and joint locking techniques.
Cejudo’s now 38. In his last bout, a loss against Merab Dvalishvili, he showed the rest of the bantamweights that he was still relevant in the division despite taking his second loss in a row, albeit to elite bantamweight wrestling talents.
For this fight, Cejudo faces a far different challenge from his adversary. Yadong is not the accomplished wrestler Sterling and Dvalishvili are.
Yadong, 28, began learning Sambo at the age of nine and transitioned into MMA just a few years later. From age 22 on, he’s trained at Team Alpha Male in California under the tutelage of Uriah Faber and company.
Over the course of the last decade, the trainers at Alpha Male have equipped Yadong with effective wrestling, takedown defense and cardio, all aspects of his fight game that absolutely needed to be improved.
Yadong arrives at this fight understanding that a wrestling onslaught is coming. He’s training to get this fight into the later rounds, where he and his team believe Yadong’s tremendous youth, experience and cardio will make the difference.
This is a foundational fight for Yadong. Should he be able to withstand the last-gasp threat from a 38-year-old world-class mixed martial artist, then he thrusts himself into a top-six ranking in the division. As importantly, with a victory, he positions himself for elimination fights in order to earn a shot at the bantamweight belt.
For Cejudo, this fight represents the exact same. It thrusts him into the top five of the division with any form of victory and provides him with the opportunity to yap for a title chance. However, a Cejudo loss proves yet again that Father Time remains undefeated for a reason.
Yadong’s price is too expensive in my judgment but it’s difficult for me to invest in a 38-year-old bantamweight in a critical fight despite the Cejudo name and great plus price.
Pass
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -150
Anthony Hernandez -280 vs. Brendan Allen +240
Middleweight (185 pounds) co-main event
This is a rematch of a 2018 LFA battle where ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez decisioned Brendan Allen.
Flash forward six plus years and we find these two have each refined their skills dynamically and are now both ranked in the top 12 of the middleweight division.
Allen, a black belt in BJJ and ranked eighth in the division, is a few inches taller, a few years younger, and he’s also entering off the bounce. He won seven straight UFC fights before number-one-ranked middleweight Nassourdine Imavov painted his fence in a one-way decision last September in Paris.
Hernandez, a brown belt in BJJ is the 12th-ranked middleweight. He arrives at this fight with a busload of momentum, as he’s won his last six and against highly respectable middleweight adversaries.
Fluffy’s ranking, the effectiveness of his fighting, his dog mentality, and that win over Allen years ago are all being underestimated despite the price in this battle.
Allen seems to be a touch overvalued by the MMA community, linemakers, and current betting market despite the fact that he’s 7-1 in his last eight and the larger man in this fight.
Once this fight begins, the high-end grappling of each man may negate one another’s attempt to gain the clinch. I lean to Hernandez in the grappling, despite the fact that Allen is the black belt.
Striking/kicking effectiveness and fluidity reside with Hernandez, as does fight IQ, which is foundational in this fight. Allen’s made several suspect decisions in past fights.
It’s disappointing that this fight is not a full five-round fight because over three rounds, I see a fight that looks darn near exactly like their first fight did, the result being a unanimous Hernandez decision.
Props are not available at this time, but a Fluffy decision seems logical for this co-main event.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -275.
This line opened 2.5 Rds Over -170!
Ibo Aslan -190 vs. Ion Cutelaba +165
Light heavyweight (205 pounds)
Aslan from Türkiye is a chiseled specimen of a fighter who has earned all 14 of his wins via knockout. He swings a sledgehammer with each wide, telegraphed launch. Aslan is not overly nimble, quick, or fluid with his footwork or his strike defense because he has learned to trust the profuse power in his hooks and crosses.
The Moldovan madman Cutelaba is still only 31. In this fight, he’ll be the smaller but much faster, more athletic, and more experienced man.
His camp surely understands Alsan’s issues with cardio past four minutes into a fight, and they’ll fashion an early plan to drain the Turkish power striker over time into fatigues-ville, then unload on the compromised slugger once he is gassed.
The risk in considering Cutelaba is that he loves firefights so will he be able to remain calm, patient, and mobile for the first round of this fight to ensure an advantage into the second round and beyond?
UFC Fight Night Seattle Best Bet: Cutelaba +165
Remain patient with this line as it has been moving Cutelaba’s way all week…
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Under -120
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