UFC Kansas City Predictions – Garry vs. Prates:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Kansas City best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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Since 2020: 703-672 (+189.8 Units, 10.89% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Article History: 352-230-1 (60.48%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Ian “The Future” Machado Garry (-162) vs Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates (+136)
Over 3.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 3.5 Rounds (-120)
Welterweight
Ian Garry’s fight IQ and willingness to do whatever it takes to get his hand raised are undeniable. When he was new in the organization, he wasted no time, winning his first UFC fight via first round KO. Three and a half years later, he is 8-1 in the organization versus a high strength of schedule. Known as a striker, he employed takedowns and control to defeat the dangerous veteran Michael Venom Page. In his last fight, he suffered his first professional loss against the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov. He lost that fight via five-round decision, perhaps because he was not aggressive enough with head strikes.
Ian Garry’s biggest fault as a fighter is his persona. He has rubbed some fans the wrong way with some of his pre- and post-fight antics. He has overpromised and underdelivered in some of his decision wins. He promised violence versus Michael Venom Page, but he won that fight because he did everything possible to avoid the violence. He took the mic after a split decision win versus Geoff Neal and asked for a post-fight performance bonus. A bit tone deaf which can be cringy to fans, but at the end of the day, he knows how to get his hand raised and is 15-1 as a professional. Statistically, he is an accurate striker who lands nearly five significant strikes per minute. Defensively, he is solid, only getting hit 2.82 times per minute in the cage. And most importantly, he can minimize damage on the rare occasions his opponents land head strikes. He is 27 years old and still has a good chin. He has been knocked down once in the UFC, versus Song Kenan. But Garry recovered and ended up more than doubling his significant strikes landed, and getting a third round knockout. Garry does not always look for takedowns, but when facing dangerous strikers, he is much more apt to employ a ground game.
Carlos Prates is one of the fastest rising stars in the UFC. He is 4-0 with four knockout victories. Overall, he has won his last 10 professional fights via knockout. His accuracy is elite, and his power is special. He also publicly smokes cigarettes, which has made him a bit of a cult figure even if that is not exactly an activity associated with high-level cage fighting. His results have been spectacular. Seven knockdowns in four fights are eye-popping. But his strength of schedule is definitely worth examining. The biggest name on his resume is 37-year-old Neil Magny, who is 1-3 in his last four fights. That said, Prates is a member of the hottest team in MMA right now, Fighting Nerds, which includes Caio Borralho (7-0 UFC), Jean Silva (5-0 UFC), and Mauricio Ruffy (3-0 UFC), who have all been finding wins in dramatic fashion versus all comers.
Landing nearly 60% of his significant strike attempts, Prates is a rare combination of precision and power. Additionally, his 91% takedown defense rate means that Ian Garry probably will not be able to get the fight to the ground if he senses danger. The stats Prates has accrued have been against subpar competition. I would be surprised if he lands over half of his power shots versus Ian Garry. I also think that Ian Garry has more paths to victory than Prates. The real wildcard in this matchup is Garry’s preparation. He took his last fight on short notice and lost via decision. He is sliding onto this card to replace Geoff Neal.
FIGHT WINNER: Ian Machado Garry
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Carlos Prates Under 57.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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Anthony Smith (+310) vs Zhang Mingyang (-395)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-180)
Light Heavyweight
This is expected to be Anthony Smith’s final pro fight. He will be entering the octagon for the 25th time and has fought the best of the best in the light heavyweight division for nearly a decade. In 2019, he lost a decision to Jon Jones in a championship bout and has won seven performance bonuses over his career. But the results have not been great in the past few years. He is 1-3 in his last four fights and 2-5 since July 2022. He has been fighting mostly the tip of the spear, but his last win was detailing Vitor Petrino’s hype train. Additionally, this fight being in Kansas City should be a major lift for Smith, who is from Nebraska City, Nebraska, less than four hours away. Stylistically, Smith can do it all, but he is most potent with his grappling.
Zhang Mingyang is 2-0 in the UFC and has made short work of both opponents. He won both of those fights in the first half of the first round via KO. Additionally, he had a first round knockout in Road to UFC. Overall, he is 18-6 as a professional with 12 wins via knockout and six via submission. All 18 of his professional wins have come in the very first round. He is 26 years old and on an 11-fight win streak. His opponents have not been elite, but his results have been absolutely dominant. Aggression from the opening bell can be expected, and I do not expect him to fear Smith’s striking.
Anthony Smith is 10 years older than Zhang, and his fighting age is probably even higher based on the wars he has been in. I do not trust Smith’s chin, and I do not expect Zhang to engage in grappling if he can avoid it. He was taken down once in Road to UFC, but was able to get back up and find the finish. Smith is going to go out on his shield, which is noble, but probably not smart against this opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Mingyang Zhang
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Smith/Zhang Fight Not to Start Round 2 (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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Giga Chikadze (+164) vs David Onama (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Featherweight
This fight is a major step in Giga Chikadze’s comeback tour. However, it is already off to a rocky start as he missed weight by a pound on Friday. He has not been active since last July and has fought three times since August 2021. He started his UFC career 7-0, but has gone 1-2 in his last three bouts. Perhaps the inactivity and weight miss are indications that he is not fully invested in the fight game right now or is dealing with nagging injuries. I cannot speculate on that, but I can say Chikadze is a devastating striker when he finds his range. He has knockout victories versus legends Cub Swanson and Edson Barboza.
David Onama is on a three-fight winning streak and looking to add the biggest name to his resume yet. He is a raw fighter with tons of potential. He is extremely strong physically and is extremely thick for the division. He is a very active striker who is usually willing to eat a strike to land one. I do not believe that strategy will be effective in this matchup. If he can close distance and avoid getting picked apart by Chikadze from the outside, he will do well in this fight. Additionally, making Chikadze respect his power early will be paramount to not falling behind. I think Chikadze’s precision and experience versus high-level featherweights will be the difference in this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Giga Chikadze
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Giga Chikadze (+170, Caesars) vs Onama, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.7 Units
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Michel Pereira (-148) vs Abus Magomedov (+124)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+160)
Middleweight
Michel Pereira is one of the most exciting middleweights in the division. He is all action from the opening bell and is willing to find finishes wherever and whenever they present themselves. With that said, he has a serious gas tank issue, and if he doesn’t get the fight finished in the first two rounds, he can struggle to make it to the closing bell. Abus Magomedov is a veteran who entered the organization with an aggressive style, but in recent fights, he has employed a more controlled approach. He came into the organization and won via first round KO, but lost two in a row versus Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho. Most recently, he submitted the dangerous Bruno Ferreira in the third round after navigating dangerous waters early. I do not give Magomedov advantages in any one area, and I expect Pereira to win on the feet and be tough to control on the ground.
FIGHT WINNER: Michel Pereira
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Michel Pereira (-145, BetMGM) vs Magomedov, Risk 1.45 Units to Win 1
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Randy Brown (-298) vs Nicolas Dalby (+240)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Welterweight
Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby are two UFC veterans who have operated in the welterweight division for a long time. Brown has faced higher-level competition and has reached higher highs. He also will have a four-inch height advantage and a 3.5-inch longer reach. He is a better striker and is adept at controlling distance. Nicolas Dalby is a grinder who wins with his gas tank. He is good at getting into his opponent’s face. He puts them on the back foot and uses any opportunity to latch onto his opponent and test their cardio. But at age 40, the gas tank could be in question. Additionally, Randy Brown has navigated these waters before and should be ready for Dalby’s game plan. Furthermore, Brown’s long limbs afford him the ability to find submission attempts from unique positions. Every round starts on the feet, and Brown has an advantage there more than anywhere else.
FIGHT WINNER: Randy Brown
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Ikram Aliskerov (-470) vs Andre Muniz (+360)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-120) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)
Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov is 2-1 in the UFC. He looked like the next Russian phenom after getting two first round KOs versus UFC veterans Phil Hawes and Warlley Alves. But when he took a short-notice fight versus former Middleweight Champion Robert Whittaker, he was humbled in a flash, getting knocked out in the very first round. Overall, he is 15-2 as a professional with 11 wins inside the distance. Outside of the Whittaker loss, he was KO’d by Khamzat Chimaev on the regional scene in 2019. Luckily for Aliskerov, Andre Muniz does not present much of a knockout threat. But that is not to say Muniz isn’t dangerous. A skilled grappler, Muniz is 6-2 in the UFC and has found wins versus dangerous strikers in the past. Aliskerov’s grappling has not been tested at the UFC level, and this will be a stylistic matchup to keep an eye on. Muniz has three submission victories in the UFC, all of which came in the first round. I believe that this clash of styles will yield an early stoppage, but I am not willing to bet on Aliskerov’s short-track UFC resume.
FIGHT WINNER: Andre Muniz
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Alikserov/Muniz Under 1.5 Rounds (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
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Matt Schnell (-166) vs Jimmy Flick (+140)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-130)
Flyweight
Matt Schnell is known for being in exciting fights. Unfortunately, he is usually on the wrong end of these barn burners. He has a 6-7 win-loss record in the UFC and has lost four of his last five fights, all of which have been finished inside the distance. His strength is grappling, but he is too willing to strike, which is why he has been knocked out in five of his UFC losses. His opponent, Jimmy Flick, is also a grappler who lacks a strong stand-up game. Flick is 2-3 in the UFC and has lost three of his last four fights since he missed two years of fighting due to retirement. Both of his UFC wins, as well as his Contender Series victories, have come via submission. There is a good chance that this is a high-paced grappling match from the outset. Both fighters prioritize offense over defense, and I think the most likely outcome in this fight is that one of them gets caught in a choke.
FIGHT WINNER: Matt Schnell
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Schnell/Flick Fight Ends via Submission (+140), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
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Evan Elder (-205) vs Gauge Young (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190
Lightweight
Evan Elder is starting to find his footing in the UFC after losing his first two fights. He is now on a back-to-back win streak and has the opportunity to make it three in a row versus a UFC debutant. He has not lost in the organization as a favorite and has a well-rounded fight game that will be a lot for the rookie to deal with. Gauge Young is 9-2 as a professional fighter, with one of those losses coming via decision in Contender Series. He is getting this opportunity because Elder’s opponent withdrew. I do not respect Young’s strength of schedule, mostly having fought in the Fighting Alliance Championship promotion. A second chance is not often given to athletes in this sport, which adds to the pressure of this situation. I expect the veteran to win in straightforward fashion, but I am not going to chase a finish given that Young can walk out of this fight feeling good about himself as long as he doesn’t get embarrassed.
FIGHT WINNER: Evan Elder
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Parlay – Evan Elder/Randy Brown (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
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Chris Gutierrez (-142) vs John Castaneda (+120)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-445) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+310)
Featherweight
Chris Gutierrez struggles versus opponents who have a decisive aggression and power advantage. Castaneda may be the more aggressive fighter here, but Gutierrez has more precise striking and, more importantly, has good takedown defense. Castaneda’s best path to victory is getting this fight on the ground early and often, which I do not think is in the cards. I expect Gutierrez to win, most likely via decision. Castaneda’s suspect striking defense means he is likely to fall behind on the scorecards.
FIGHT WINNER: Chris Gutierrez
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Chris Gutierrez (-142) vs Castaneda, Risk 1.42 Units to Win 1
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Da’Mon Blackshear (-520) vs Alatengheili (+390)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Bantamweight
Da’Mon Blackshear is a gifted grappler. But this isn’t a Jiu-Jitsu tournament. Every time I see him as a big favorite, I pause and ask myself two questions. Can his opponent strike? Can his opponent defend takedowns? Alatenghelii has one knockout in eight UFC fights, versus an opponent who went winless in the organization. Regarding takedown defense, his 75% takedown defense rate is legit. Only one opponent successfully got him to the ground. At this price, Blackshear is a scary proposition. He was one-punch KO’d by Montel Jackson, a result that looms large. However, Alatengheli looks for takedowns of his own, which is a terrible idea against someone with Blackshear’s guard. I think Blackshear should be a favorite, but not this big, and I think that both fighters have aggressive styles that can lead to a finish in this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Da’Mon Blackshear
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Pass
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Malcolm Wellmaker (-130) vs Cameron Saaiman (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Bantamweight
Malcolm Wellmaker is making his UFC debut at age 30. He is 8-0 as a professional. Last August, he won in Contender Series via first round knockout, a great way to make an impression as a bantamweight. Six of his eight pro victories have come inside the distance, but I put a little bit of an asterisk next to the 75% finish rate, given he has largely fought unproven and low-level opponents, with his Contender Series opponent being his highest level competition. Cameron Saaiman was on the verge of being the next bantamweight wunderkind. He came into the UFC with an undefeated record and won his first three fights in the organization (two via KO). However, like many other young fighters, he was humbled versus Christian Rodriguez and then got knocked out in an all-out brawl against Payton Talbott. He desperately needs a win, and despite being six years younger, he has much more relevant high-level MMA experience. I expect someone to win via KO in this fight. My money is on Saaiman to get his hand raised.
FIGHT WINNER: Cameron Saaiman
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Cameron Saaiman (+110) vs Wellmaker, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Jacqueline Amorim (-750) vs Polyana Viana (+525)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-120)
Women’s Flyweight
Jacqueline Amorim is one of the more dominant grapplers in the women’s flyweight division. She is 9-1 as a pro and 3-1 in the UFC with three wins inside the distance, two via armbar and one via ground and pound. She is 29 years old and rounding into her prime, with a great opportunity to continue accumulating accolades. Additionally, she is a member of American Top Team, so she should not be taking this fight lightly despite being a massive favorite. Polyana Viana is 4-6 in the UFC and 1-3 in her last four fights. She has been finished on the ground in her last two fights and is in trouble in this matchup. Her 38% takedown defense rate will be challenged from the onset, and her striking metrics are also substantially worse than Amorim’s both offensively and defensively.
FIGHT WINNER: Jacqueline Amorim
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Pass
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Timothy Cuamba (-115) vs Roberto Romero (-105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Featherweight
Timothy Cuamba is 0-2 in the UFC after winning in Contender Series in August 2023. He won via decision but was not immediately signed. He was given an opportunity as a late replacement opponent versus Bolaji Oki last February and lost via split decision. He followed that up with a loss to Lucas Almeida as a -200 favorite. I do not think he has high-level potential in the organization. If he doesn’t win this fight decisively, he could be back on the regional scene soon. Roberto Romero also earned his UFC shot as a late replacement opponent, losing a decision to David Onama. He proved to be an aggressive striker in that bout, but his defense was putrid, allowing Onama to land 121 significant strikes in 15 minutes. I do think he is live because Cuamba has not looked great when fights get messy, but there is not enough here for me to have strong conviction.
FIGHT WINNER: Roberto Romero
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Pass
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Chelsea Chandler (+225) vs Joselyne Edwards (-278)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-375) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+270)
Women’s Bantamweight
Chelsea Chandler is 2-2 in the UFC despite being the underdog in all four of her bouts. She won her debut via ground-and-pound finish; her last three fights have gone to a decision. She missed weight in her last two fights, so it was good to see her make it to the scale correctly this week. Joselyne Edwards is 5-4 in the UFC. She also missed weight in her last bout but was clean on Friday. She is 3-2 in her last five fights, and came in overweight in all three of the victories. Statistically, Edwards is superior in every major category. I fully expect her to win via decision. But the weirdness with her weigh-in history has me a little bit spooked. I do not trust her to fight smart. A split decision could be in play, which is a game of Russian Roulette.
FIGHT WINNER: Joselyne Edwards
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Pass
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UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BETS RECAP
– Carlos Prates Under 57.5 Significant Strikes (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
– Smith/Zhang Fight Not to Start Round 2 (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
– Giga Chikadze (+170, Caesars) vs Onama, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.7 Units
– Michel Pereira (-145, BetMGM) vs Magomedov, Risk 1.45 Units to Win 1
– Alikserov/Munz Under 1.5 Rounds (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
– Schnell/Flick Fight Ends via Submission (+140), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
– Parlay – Evan Elder/Randy Brown (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
– Chris Gutierrez (-142) vs Castaneda, Risk 1.42 Units to Win 1
– Cameron Saaiman (+110) vs Wellmaker, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
