UFC London Predictions – Edwards vs. Brady:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC London best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 1-4 (-3.93 Units, -66.27% ROI)
2025: 24-32 (-5.76 Units, -8.87% ROI)
Since 2020: 694-663 (+188.51 Units, 10.81% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 4-9 (30.77%)
2025: 68-38-1 (64.15%)
Article History: 324-222-1 (59.34%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Leon “Rocky” Edwards (+130) vs Sean Brady (-155)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-230) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+175)
Welterweight
Leon Edwards still isn’t getting respect, and I can see why. The former welterweight champion laid an egg in front of a hometown English crowd versus Belal Muhammad in July 2024. He relinquished the belt and rumors have arisen about his health. Is he still committed to being the best? Is his body in good shape after completing 17 UFC fights (14-3, 1 NC). I cannot answer all those questions, but I can say anyone who goes on a 12-fight UFC winning streak is a special athlete. He is a well-rounded fighter who fits the profile of other elite fighters. He is hard to hit, only absorbing 2.37 significant strikes per minute. Additionally, he mixes it up well, having landed at least one takedown in four of his last five fights. Edwards also has true KO power with both his hands and legs. If this fight was taking place a year ago, I can’t imagine Edwards would be less than -200 favorite, so the current price is very interesting.
Sean Brady has a great attitude. He works hard, he is extremely technical, and he does not let opponents off the hook. He is 17-1 as a mixed martial artist, and his path to victory is almost always through takedowns and the ground game. He averages 3.49 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. Brady has landed 5+ in his last two fights against Kelvin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns. In the UFC, he is 7-1 and has landed a takedown in all seven of his wins. His lone loss came against the current welterweight champion, Belal Muhammad, a loss that has definitely aged well. Outside of his ground dominance, Brady is an accurate but not powerful striker, and he is extremely defensively sound regarding stand-up. He has the profile of someone who will be fighting for a belt one day, although the lack of KO power is a serious concern. The best of the best are durable, and if they don’t have to worry about heavy strikes, they are free to impose offense of their own. Furthermore, Brady has fought a lot of over-the-hill fighters, and his last three wins are against fighters who were far from the peak of their power (Michael Chiesa, Kelvin Gastelum, Gilbert Burns).
There is a world where Leon Edwards is not down to defend the takedown for 25 minutes. If that’s the case, he will lose this fight. However, if his takedown defense is on the level of what he had when facing Rafael dos Anjos, Kamaru Usman, and Colby Covington, then Sean Brady is going to get beat up. I don’t fully believe Leon Edwards is done competing at the highest level, and I am not ready to say Sean Brady’s game plan will work against the best fighters in the division.
FIGHT WINNER: Leon Edwards
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Leon Edwards (+140, Caesars) vs Brady, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
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Jan Blachowicz (+235) vs Carlos “Black Jag” Ulberg (-290)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz is a fighter you cannot help but respect. He started his career in MMA’s top organization quite unceremoniously, amassing a 1-4 record. But after that, he flipped a switch and started stacking wins. His level of opponent kept rising, and his results didn’t skip a beat until he became Light Heavyweight Champion. His legendary power is something opponents cannot properly prepare for, and his fight IQ and durability are 100% championship-grade. He lost his belt to Glover Teixeira’s last grasp of greatness. Since then, he defeated Aleksandar Rakic, went to a draw vs current champ Magomed Ankalaev, and lost a tight split decision to Alex Pereira. Blachowicz’s last two fights have been a bit boring by his standards, and he has not fought since July 29, 2023. Additionally, he is now 42 years old, which is long past the danger zone of 35, where most fighters’ skills start to fall off precipitously.
Carlos Ulberg has been a runaway hype train since he joined the UFC, for good reason. He was a training partner of Israel Adesanya when he was the middleweight champion, and Ulberg was hailed as the next great prospect out of Auckland’s City Kickboxing team. Ulberg’s debut came during the COVID era of UFC, and he delivered an exciting fight, but unfortunately, he ended up getting KO’d by Kennedy Nzechukwu. He pieced Kennedy up, and Nzechukwu’s chin has never been the same. But in that fight, he was able to dig deep and find Ulberg’s chin. After that, Ulberg embarked on the long road of fighting his way to the top by rising the ranks in the division. He is 7-1 in the organization. His best opponents were in his last two fights, a decision win versus Volkan Oezdemir and a KO vs. Alonzo Menifield in a fight that lasted 12 seconds.
Ulberg’s strength of schedule is my biggest question. After his debut he has dominated all opponents, but none of those opponents have a pedigree anywhere near that of Jan Blachowicz. At the same time, I am worried about Blachowicz’s age and the long layoff. I think that Ulberg should be able to navigate himself to a win here and bolster his resume, but the ask is tough at market prices.
FIGHT WINNER: Carlos Ulberg
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Pass
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Kevin Holland (-102) vs Gunnar Nelson (-118)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-166)
Welterweight
I enjoy Kevin Holland as an entertainer. I cannot back him as a fighter any longer. It is quite clear that he does not have aspirations to reach the top of the organization. He just wants to collect checks by staying active. That means when the going gets tough in fights, he is eager to get out of there, so he will be ready to fight again a few months later. He is an extremely experienced fighter with a 13-10 (1 NC) UFC record. Despite that experience, his fight IQ cannot be trusted. When he fought Renier de Ridder in January, he did exactly what he needed to avoid doing by letting de Ridder close the distance and take the fight to the ground. That being said, Holland’s last four fights have been at middleweight, a weight class in which he is a bit leaner than he should be. This fight is at welterweight, where his record in that division is 4-2 at the UFC level. His two losses came against Jack Della Maddalena, who is going to be fighting for the welterweight belt soon, and Stephen Thompson, a former belt title challenger.
Gunnar Nelson is also a long-time UFC veteran, and like Holland’s previous opponent, he excels on the ground. Nelson has not been active for two years, which is a bit concerning. But he will be lifted up by fighting in England, which is relatively close to his native Iceland. Nelson is 10-5 in the UFC and has almost exclusively fought middling competition. His best opponents, Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns, handed him decision losses. On the feet, he will be at a disadvantage versus the rangy Holland, but on the ground, he should be able to impose his will from top position.
In good conscience, I can’t bet on a Kevin Holland fight. But I do expect the move back down to welterweight to give at least a small jolt to the more active fighter.
FIGHT WINNER: Kevin Holland
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Pass
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Molly McCann (+195) vs Alexia Thainara (-238)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Women’s Strawweight
“Meatball” Molly McCann has had some epic finishes in the UFC. She has also had some completely inexcusable defeats—in 2018 as a -155 favorite vs. Gillian Robertson, 2020 as a -205 favorite vs. Talia Santos, 2023 as a -310 favorite vs. Julija Stoliarenko, and 2024 as a -350 favorite vs. Bruna Brasil. Despite being an unreliable favorite, she only has one win in the UFC as an underdog, indicating that her personality has either made her overvalued to oddsmakers or she has benefitted from advantageous matchmaking. Despite being favored in 11/13 UFC fights, her record in the organization is 7-6. She was supposed to fight Istela Nunes on this card, another advantageous matchup. But when Nunes had visa issues, McCann’s chances of getting a win in front of a friendly crowd went way down.
Alexia Thainara is a promising prospect in the women’s strawweight division. She is 27 years old and 11-1 as a pro fighter. She fought in Contender Series last September and won via unanimous decision. The fight was instructive. On the regional scene, Thainara relied on her ground game to get her hand raised. In Contender Series, she won an all-out stand-up brawl by landing 101 significant strikes. She lacks high-level experience, and this fight is taking place in hostile territory, but I do believe Molly McCann is capable of making a major mistake versus virtually any opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Alexia Thainara
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Fight Does Not Go Distance (+146, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.46 Units
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Jordan Vucenic (-380) vs Chris Duncan (+300)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Lightweight
Both of these fighters are familiar with fighting in the UK. Jordan Vucenic is a former Cage Warriors Champion who received a lot of fanfare when it was announced he was being elevated to the UFC roster. That being said, his debut was a late-notice fight versus Guram Kutateladze. He was a solid +190 underdog and lost via unanimous decision. Given the circumstances of his first UFC fight, this is his hard launch. With these odds, he is expected to get back to dominating like he did versus virtually everyone in the UK regional scene. Chris Duncan is 3-1 in the UFC and was 3-0 in Bellator before making the jump to the big show. His stats are far from elite. He lands a lot of volume without the greatest accuracy rate at 46%, and he has a sub-50% striking defense rate. He averages 3.53 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, but his accuracy is 37%, and his defense rate is terrible at 33%. Vucenic will have openings here, but Duncan is not a Cage Warriors-level opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Jordan Vucenic
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Nathaniel Wood (+114) vs Morgan Charriere (-135)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-245) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+185)
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood is an under-the-radar fighter who would make the “Hall of Very Good” on the first ballot. The 331-year-old is 8-3 in the UFC and 3-1 since moving up from bantamweight to featherweight. Even that one loss in this weight class deserves a large asterisk. Muhammad Naimov got away with multiple fence grabs, which likely would have otherwise led to a takedown that changed the composition of the fight. Wood is not much of a finisher at the UFC level, but he is a very active striker, landing 5.75 significant strikes per minute. Additionally, his 56% defense rate is solid, and he mixes up the takedowns nicely. Morgan Charriere is another Cage Warriors veteran who is a fan favorite despite being just 2-1 in the UFC. He is a big-time finisher, and that is exactly why I do not like him in this fight. Nathaniel Wood does not go easily. And when he faced a game UFC veteran in Chepe Mariscal, he lost a high-paced split decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Nathaniel Wood
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Nathaniel Wood (+124, FanDuel) vs Charriere, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
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Jai Herbert (-110) vs Chris Padilla (-110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Lightweight
Jai Herbert is the only man to knock down Ilia Topuria in the UFC. But that moment was fleeting, and he ended up getting KO’d by the eventual UFC featherweight champ. Like most English fighters, he came up in Cage Warriors, and like many other fighters on this card, he is a former champion in that organization. Early on in his UFC career, his fights were action-packed, with the first four ending inside the distance (3 losses). Since then, self preservation has become more of a priority for Herbert, and his most recent four fights have gone to a decision (2-1-1 record). He is now 36 years old and desperately needs a career-reigniting fight because the decision win vs. Rolando Bedoya last August did not move the needle. Chris Padilla is finally getting respected in the UFC. He debuted on short notice and won via submission as a +350 underdog. In his follow-up fight, he was a +200 underdog vs Rongzhu and won via doctor stoppage in the second round. He is the exact type of fighter I love to back: little acclaim, overlooked, but a solid strength of schedule and nothing to lose.
FIGHT WINNER: Chris Padilla
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Fight Does Not Go The Distance (-112, FanDuel), Risk 1.12 Units to Win 1
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Lone’er Kavanagh (-278) vs Felipe dos Santos (+225)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Flyweight
Lone’er Kavanagh is another English prospect on this card looking to keep the hype train rolling. He won his debut via decision as a -350 favorite after winning via KO in Contender Series last August. Overall, he is 8-0 as a professional with five wins via knockout, one via submission, and three via decision. He will be hyped up in front of the London crowd and hunting for the finish here. Felipe Santos is not likely to follow the easy script of getting taken out. He is 8-2 as a pro and 1-2 in the UFC…. but not all 1-2 records are created equal. He took a debut fight versus Manel Kape on short and lost via decision. He followed that up with a split decision win over Victor Altamirano, then lost via decision versus the surging Andre Lima (win via finish last week!). The crowd will be a factor, but dos Santos is no stranger to hostile environments. I cannot lay these types of numbers with guys who are as inexperienced as Kavanagh. Dos Santos’ height, reach, and experience with high-level strikers will be the difference.
FIGHT WINNER: Felipe dos Santos
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Felipe dos Santos (+240, Caesars), vs Lone’er Kavanagh, Risk 1 Unit to win 2.4
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Marcin Tybura (+124) vs Mick Parkin (-148)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura is now nearly 40 years old, generally a major red flag when it comes to picking winning UFC fighters. However, the heavyweight division is the biggest exception to this rule. Tybura has fought a ton of championship-level fighters and even title challengers. He hasn’t always got his hand raised, but his 13-8 record is stronger than the straight win rate would indicate. He has five wins via knockout, but he is also a more capable wrestler than most heavyweights. His hand speed is nothing special, but when he connects it does damage. Mick Parkin is another English fighter on the come-up. He is 10-0 as a pro and 4-0 in the UFC. Early in his UFC career, I think he played it too safe and didn’t hunt for finishes when the opportunities presented themselves. In his last fight, last July, he did knock out an opponent who was asking for it. I think the biggest issue in this fight for Parkin is experience. I do not think Tybura will be worried about anything Parkin can do offensively. Parkin has solid defense, and it is not certain Tybura will be able to land offense of his own.
FIGHT WINNER: Marcin Tybura
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Pass
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Andrey Pulyaev (+370) vs Christian Leroy Duncan (-485)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Middleweight
Andrey Pulyaev is taking this fight after winning in the Contender Series last August. As a pro fighter, he is 9-2 versus extremely suspect competition. In his Contender Series fight, he succeeded in executing a high-volume game plan. Overall, five of his wins are via knockout, and two are via submission, so he is definitely the type of fighter who is going to be bringing the excitement from the starting bell. Christian Leroy Duncan is 10-2 as a pro and 3-2 in the UFC. In his last fight, he lost via decision to Gregory Rodrigues, who took the fight on short notice and changed things up by employing a takedown-heavy game plan—a smart plan because Christian Leroy Duncan has some of the more dangerous hands in the division. I expect Christian Leroy Duncan to give Pulyaev an education in this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Christian Leroy Duncan
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See below
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Shauna Bannon (-170) vs Puja Tomar (+142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-560) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+370)
Women’s Strawweight
Shauna Bannon is a popular fighter, but I do not think she is very good. She was a slight underdog in her debut vs. Bruna Brasil and lost a straightforward decision. She followed that up with a fight against late replacement opponent Alice Ardelean and narrowly won a split decision as a -190 favorite. Puja Tomar was a fighter who was expected to embark on her UFC N.F.L. (not for long) journey the second she made her debut as a +280 underdog versus Rayanne Amanda. She ended up winning that fight via an extremely controversial split decision (all 10 media scorecards on MMAdecisions.com had her losing the fight). In that fight, Tomar overwhelmed her opponent with volume, and there is honestly a good chance the same strategy works versus Shauna Bannon’s abysmal 42% significant strike defense rate. This fight has the potential to be an absolute coin flip on the scorecards.
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Pass
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Caolan Loughran (+114) vs Nathan Fletcher (-135)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Bantamweight
Caolan Loughran is a young Irish fighter who looks the part with his wide base and high-handed stance. But looks only get you so far, and in the UFC, Loughran is 1-2 overall. He lost to Taylor Lapilus after his fight vs. Yanis Ghemmouri fell apart ahead of his debut. He then beat all-heart, no-talent Angel Pacheco, and he followed that performance up with a decision loss as a -250 favorite against the veteran Jake Hadley. As an adept finisher at lower levels, Loughran has been unable to truly hurt his opponents at the UFC level, and that type of power doesn’t necessarily show up if it’s not there from the beginning. Nathan Fletcher is 9-1 as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC after he took care of business with a second-round triangle versus Zygimantas Ramaska last September. I am not fully sold on his strength of schedule, and the fact that he has four wins rear naked choke and another two via arm triangle is a bit concerning, considering finding those types of finishes with regularity is not common at the UFC level. But his takedown activity in his debut was insane, landing four in six minutes and 14 seconds on six attempts. I am not 100% certain of Loughran’s takedown defense ability because no opponents have forced the issue. However, I do expect his experience in the octagon to play a factor.
FIGHT WINNER: Caolan Loughran
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Pass
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Guram Kutateladze (-395) vs Kaue Fernandes (+310)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Lightweight
Guram Kutateladze was one of my fighters to watch in 2020 after he made his debut and won via split decision versus Mateusz Gamrot. However, he was out of action for a year and a half, and his return was a bit sour, given he lost via split decision to Damir Ismagulov in a very winnable fight. Things went from bad to worse a year later when he convincingly outstruck Elves Brenner but ended up getting KO’d in the third round. Things haven’t been all bad for Kutateladze. He derailed the Jordan Vucenic hype train last August, and the 33-year-old is in a now-or-never spot if he wants to regain the momentum he had after his UFC debut five years ago. Kaue Fernandes is 1-1 in the UFC. He lost a split decision to Marc Diakese in his debut and followed that up with a KO win over Mohammad Yahya last August. Now, he is squaring off against an opponent who will likely have a technical striking advantage but perhaps lacks power. Overall, this should be a close fight, but I expect Kutateladze to outpoint Fernandes and win via decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Guram Kutateladze
UFC LONDON BEST BET: Parlay- Guram Kutateladze/Christian Leroy Duncan/Jordan Vucencic -111, Risk 1.11 Units to Win 1
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UFC LONDON BEST BETS RECAP
– Leon Edwards (+140, Caesars) vs Brady, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
– McCann/Thainara Fight Does Not Go Distance (+146, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.46 Units
– Nathaniel Wood (+124, FanDuel) vs Charriere, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
– Herbert/Padilla Fight Does Not Go The Distance (-112, FanDuel), Risk 1.12 Units to Win 1
– Felipe dos Santos (+240, Caesars), vs Lone’er Kavanagh, Risk 1 Unit to win 2.4
– Parlay- Guram Kutateladze/Christian Leroy Duncan/Jordan Vucencic -111, Risk 1.11 Units to Win 1
