UFC London Predictions:
This week’s UFC fight card will take place in London, England. The card is scheduled for 14 bouts, nine of which pit English athletes against fighters travelling into London for their competition, which will clearly benefit the local English combatants.
Fighters weighing 170 pounds and above will compete in six of the 14 fights. There are three fights in which the age difference is 11 years, a clear advantage for the younger athlete.
The large 30-foot cage will be in use, and the normal raucous London fight crowd will be on hand to cheer for their local athletes.
Last week’s favorites once again marched to a 13-1 result, pushing them to 67-20 (77%) thus far in 2026. Favorites are winning at a historic rate, and the question is whether to keep searching for mangy mutts or to succumb and start chasing chalk because, after all, a stubborn approach is often a losing approach!
Last week, this column split on two one-unit releases but lost a half-unit position on the main event bet of Josh Emmett +430, who was hardly competitive in his loss to Kevin Vallejos.
Time to earn!
Movsar Evloev -220 vs. Lerone Murphy +190
Featherweight (145 pounds) main event
Movsar Evloev is your prototypical Russian vice-grip wrestler. A master of sports in Greco-Roman wrestling, Evloev is immensely strong, doggedly determined, and able to expend immense amounts of energy endlessly.
Evloev has been at the pinnacle of his division for years, but he has a difficult time finding fights. Featherweights duck him because of his unrelenting pressure wrestling.
The UFC is no real fan of Evloev either. His fighting style is not the kind the UFC wants to endorse for their new arrangement with Paramount. Most parties are yearning for blood, violence, and knockouts. Leg humping, opponent control from top position and grappling prowess are all aspects of the fight game the UFC is willing to turn away from.
Evloev, 19-0 professionally, has been in the UFC for seven years now. He’s realized an 11-0 record. However, each of his wins has come via decision. Evloev’s striking is in development. He utilizes it only to create the opportunity to clasp onto any opponent, drag them to the floor, and then begin control time.
Evloev is the kind of mixed martial artist who is easily overlooked by the UFC in terms of exposure, support, and investment.
In Lerone Murphy, we have an English fighter who has built great momentum in recent bouts. A purple belt in BJJ, Murphy’s fight aptitude is based in his athleticism. He played soccer before a knee injury that led him into boxing, then eventually MMA.
Murphy is 9-0-1 in the UFC. His first-ever UFC battle was against Russian athlete Zubaira Tukhugov, a forceful wrestler/striker. That bout ended in a draw. Since then, Murphy has competed against an array of talented mixed martial artists, but he has not competed against anyone with Tukhugov’s wrestling prowess until this Saturday, when he enters the cage with Evloev.
Physically, Murphy has a three-inch height advantage in this battle. He’ll also sport a slight reach advantage, so while this fight remains on the feet, I look for Murphy’s athleticism, movement, and diversity of attack to control Evloev until the Russian clasps ahold of the Englishman.
This fight comes down to Evloev’s offensive wrestling and Murphy’s ability to defend it. Evloev excels in the tumultuous grind where he can control most any featherweight opponent, inflict damage upon them from top position, while simultaneously draining them of their energy as well as their will to win.
Evloev is an authentic, world-class mixed martial artist who is, to an extent, being shelved by the UFC because of his fighting style.
Murphy is the style of fighter the UFC wants to promote, and there’s little doubt that this fight happening in London is no mistake, for the organization yearns for violent striking battles and fights that make crowds howl.
They’re giving Murphy his chance to step over Evloev in the rankings by defeating Evloev, thus knocking him down in the rankings.
Unfortunately for this main event, Evloev, who has earned this position by defeating everyone the UFC has set before him, will squelch Murphy’s ability to remain in striking distance. Sooner or later, he will ground him for what is liable to be a 25-minute roll on the canvas.
This fight may be a bit lackluster to blood thirsty fight fans wishing for a barrage of striking action. However, those MMA fans looking for a tremendous clash of styles will appreciate Evloev’s systematic dismantling of Murphy via his unrelenting forward pressure, his unending cardio, and his basic lockdown wrestling.
Boring? Perhaps, but masterful certainly!
UFC London Best Bet: Movsar Evloev -220 1u
Evloev -120 via decision (1u) makes a ton of sense also, as he is 9-0 in the UFC, all decisions.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -270
Luke Riley -250 vs. Michael Aswell +210
Featherweight (145 pounds) co-main event
Michael Aswell ships in from Texas. He is a rough-and-tumble brawler who is tough, aggressive, and swings wide and with intent.
Riley is a young up-and-comer from England, and while fellow Englishman Nathaniel Wood is more deserving of this co-main event slot, Riley gets the shine because of his youth, power, aggression, and finishing ability.
The UFC believes they have a future star in Riley, and this fight may go a long way in proving that for Riley, Aswell, the English crowd, and we fight enthusiasts!
UFC London Best Bet: Luke Riley -250 1u
Riley +100 via finish is also a strong consideration.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -165
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business podcast drops across all podcast platforms. It’s also available on GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for UFC London there! Thanks for reading, and enjoy the fights!
