UFC Mexico City Predictions – Moreno vs. Erceg:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Mexico City best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 2-4 (-1.53 Units, -24.56% ROI)
2025: 26-36 (-7.29 Units, -10.24% ROI)
Since 2020: 696-667 (+186.98 Units, 10.73% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 8-4 (66.67%)
2025: 76-42-1 (64.41%)
Article History: 324-222-1 (59.34%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (-245) vs Steve “Astroboy” Erceg (+200)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+180)
Flyweight
Brandon Moreno has participated in some of the best fights of the last decade in what many consider to be the UFC’s most forgettable men’s division. Former flyweight champion, former interim champion, and recipient of seven post-fight performance bonuses make his career one of a kind. He is an Ultimate Fighter veteran and a guy who was cut from the organization before he was re-signed and went on his title run. He is super durable and more well-rounded than almost anyone in the organization. He lands more than he gets hit (avoids 60% of opponent’s significant strikes), and gets more takedowns than he gets taken down. He is capable of winning via any method. In 10 UFC victories, he has three knockouts, three submissions, and four decisions. Additionally, he has never been finished as a pro.
Steve Erceg had one of the more meteoric rises in UFC history. If Brandon Moreno took the long road, Erceg took the express train, getting his first title shot in his fourth UFC fight. That bout took place in hostile territory as he battled Alexandre Pantoja in front of a home Brazilian crowd. He held his own and looked good considering the result was a straightforward decision loss. His follow-up fight was potentially a spot for him to return to the limelight in front of his countrymen in Australia. But his opponent was Kai Kara-France, a fellow Aussie who is much more popular because he has been in the UFC for much longer. Erceg got knocked out in the first round. Now he is taking on a true champion-level opponent in Brandon Moreno, in front of perhaps his most hostile crowd yet in Mexico City. Erceg’s resume did not warrant his title shot. He was given the opportunity because of how flat dominant Pantoja has been, having already beaten every other contender. I don’t think Erceg is a sloppy or bad fighter. He is extremely technical, has good defensive sense, and has a very high fight IQ. The issue is that he should be fighting guys ranked in the 10-15 range at this point in his career, not fighting top-three opponents in raucous environments.
Brandon Moreno is primed to have a performance similar to what he did versus Amir Albazi in his last fight. The pedigree of Moreno, coupled with the familiar surroundings, should definitely get his hand raised. There is finish equity in this fight on Moreno’s side, 60% of his UFC wins have come inside the distance. Erceg is coming off a knockout loss seven months ago, but has also shown plenty of finishes in his career (66% finish rate).
FIGHT WINNER: Brandon Moreno
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See below
–
Manuel Torres (-115) vs Drew Dober (-105)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+165) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-215)
Lightweight
Manuel Torres is 3-1 in the UFC, so it is quite an accomplishment to already get co-main event billing on a prominent fight night card. His first three fights in the UFC were first-round finishes, and his last bout was a KO loss in the first round as a slight favorite versus Ignacio Bahamondes. An exciting Mexican fighter in front of an excited Mexican crowd is a great way to set the stage for the main event, especially considering his opponent in this bout. Statistically, Torres is elite offensively, landing 7.17 significant strikes per minute while avoiding over half of what is coming back his way. He also lands 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage and attempts 1.1 submissions. He is an all-out wild man who does everything possible to end his opponent’s night. He has a 15-3 UFC record, and has seen the judges’ scorecards one time when he was in his early 20s and fighting in the regional scene.
Drew Dober is not conservative with his actions in the cage either. The 36-year-old veteran is 13-10-1 in the UFC, with sixteen of his fights ending before the final bell. Nine of his UFC victories have come via KO, and he has fought a litany of pro’s pros. He doesn’t quite land as many strikes per minute as Torres, but he has also fought a much tougher level of competition, including some elite grapplers such as Islam Makhachev and Renato Moicano. Despite having a wrestling background, it is exceedingly rare for Dober to attempt to take down opponents. The grappling could actually be a factor in this fight if Torres does not like the stand-up exchanges.
This fight should end quickly. Both fighters have power. The six-year-younger fighter Torres has an edge regarding chin. There is a bizarro world where this fight goes to a decision and you can profit handsomely. However, I am not willing to stomach that risk. I think Torres gets it done in front of a home crowd
FIGHT WINNER: Manuel Torres
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: Manuel Torres (-104, FanDuel) vs Dober, Risk 1.04 Units to Win 1
–
Kelvin Gastelum (+230) vs Joe Pyfer (-285)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum had the potential to be a UFC champion. He definitely does not have it anymore. He won the Ultimate Fighter in one of the deepest years in the series and parlayed that into a successful run in his 20s. He provided memorable fights versus Israel Adesanya, Darren Till, Robert Whittaker, and Jared Cannonier (but he lost all of those fights). For some reason, Gasteulm has never been able to commit to a strict diet, and as such, he has fought the vast majority of his fights in the middleweight division, despite having a frame for welterweight. Overall, he is 13-9 (1 NC) in the UFC with a 3-6 record dating back to 2019. He has not won via finish since he knocked out Michael Bisping in 2017. His last four victories have come via decision. At this point, there is a case to be made for Gastelum’s time in the organization to be coming to an end unless something dramatic and positive happens.
Joe Pyfer is the poster boy for the UFC’s ability to develop fighters from raw Contender Series talent to ranked, main event-caliber finishers. Pyfer lost in Contender Series when he sustained an arm injury versus Dustin Stoltzfus. Two years later, he came back to the series to win via dramatic second-round knockout. He then won his first three fights in the UFC via finish. Unfortunately, when he was given his first main event billing, he was humbled by the veteran Jack Hermansson, losing via decision. But Pyfer did exactly what he was supposed to do when he fought Marc-Andre Barriault. He overwhelmed him and landed a KO blow in under 90 seconds. Additionally, he trains with Sean Brady, who is the man responsible for giving Gastelum his last loss (submission via kimura). I do not think Gastelum has the fight IQ of Jack Hermansson and would not give him the veteran bump in this matchup. I actually think there is a real shot for Pyfer to get the finish, but I am not going to lay this price in front of a hostile crowd.
FIGHT WINNER: Joe Pyfer
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: Pass
–
Raul Rosas Jr (-520) vs Vince Morales (+390)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Bantamweight
Raul Rosas Jr is still just 20 years old. He has a 4-1 UFC record. His opponent, Vince Morales is 34 and 3-7 across two stints in the UFC. Morales may have veteran savvy and a career that began when Raul Rosas Jr was eight years old. But he is not a high-level mixed martial artist, whereas the young Rosas is very much a star. In his last fight, Vince Morales was a sharp underdog against young upstart Gilbert Smith, but even the sharp money couldn’t will this veteran to get his hand raised. Instead, he lost a fairly tightly contested decision to a fighter with nowhere near the ability of Rosas. Rosas is a submission specialist; 60% of his pro wins have come via sub. This path to victory is going to be available early and often.
FIGHT WINNER: Raul Rosas Jr.
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: Raul Rosas Jr to win via sub vs Vince Morales(+270, BetRivers), Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.7
–
David Martinez (-485) vs Saimon Oliveira (+370)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
Bantamweight
David Martinez is making his UFC debut after a convincing win in Contender Series last fall. The unanimous decision win showed lots of good things for a young, up-and-coming fighter, mainly strong defense. His opponent landed just 33% of his significant strikes and was 0/3 on takedowns. Martinez nearly doubled him up regarding strikes landed as well. This isn’t Contender Series, and CDMX Arena is going to be a whole different animal when compared to the Apex on Tuesday nights in the fall. He is 11-1, and before the UFC, the vast majority of his opponents actually had winning pro records, a rare feat in this day and age of prospects. Additionally, he fought in Combate Global primarily, which isn’t necessarily the deepest regional organization, but it has fostered numerous fighters who have gone on to have successful UFC careers. Nine of his career victories have been via KO, two via decision. His lone professional loss came three years ago via split decision.
Saimon Oliveira has not put together an impressive body of work in the UFC. He won in Contender Series via split decision, then followed that up with a decision loss to Tony Gravely. Next up, he fought Daniel Marcos and was KO’d in the second round. The 33-year-old journeyman fighter did not spend much time in respectable regional organizations before he got to Contender Series, and his lack of high-level experience has definitely shown. Oliveira’s significant strikes per minute landed are very low at 2.82x. Any number below 3 is a major red flag unless the fighter is an ace grappler. Oliveira certainly is not that, with just a 25% takedown accuracy rate in the cage. His striking and takedown defense are poor. I think this fight is set up nicely for Martinez to win via knockout as long as he can avoid prolonged time on the mat.
FIGHT WINNER: David Martinez
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: David Martinez to Win Via KO vs Oliveira (+145, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
–
Ronaldo Rodriguez (-155) vs Kevin Borjas (+130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Flyweight
Ronaldo Rodriguez is the lone fighter on the UFC Mexico card to miss weight. Just one pound over the flyweight limit of 126, this violation is far from egregious, but it’s not a good way to represent the organization that has featured you on the last two cards honoring your native Mexican heritage. Rodriguez is just 25, so there is room to mature as a professional and continue to hone his skills. Rodriguez lost on Contender Series back in 2020, but recovered and strung together several wins on the regional scene. He was given a short-notice chance to fight Denys Bondar in February 2024 and was able to lock in a second-round submission. Last September on the UFC Noche card, he was able to earn a straightforward decision against Ode Osborne. Rodriguez’s striking is a complete liability. He lacks accuracy and doesn’t make up for it with volume. However, he does a good job of earning control when in clinch and ground positions.
Ronaldo Rodriguez’s striking metrics are bad, and Borjas’ metrics are not much better. He is actually less accurate, but throws substantially more volume while absorbing over twice as many strikes per minute. That being said, his strength of schedule is better. As a result, his metrics are worse. He absorbed 156 significant strikes from the surging Joshua Van and was KO’d by Alessandro Costa. If he can control distance and avoid being taken down, I actually expect his striking to reign supreme, so he is definitely a live dog, despite getting beaten up by his first two opponents. That being said, the weight miss by Rodriguez is a complicating factor and could mean that he intends to preserve his cardio to use a grappling-heavy style.
FIGHT WINNER: Kevin Borjas
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: Pass
–
Edgar Chairez (-278) vs. CJ Vergara (+225)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Flyweight
Edgar Chairez is a respectable fighter, but I can’t help but note that this price is quite steep for a guy who is 1-2 (1 NC) in the UFC. His losses have come to young studs in Tatsuro Taira and Josh Van, and he did make it to the scorecards in both those fights, but at the end of the day his lone win in the UFC was in a fight he missed weight by five pounds versus Daniel Lacerda (0-5 in the UFC). He is big for a flyweight at 5’7” with a 72” reach, but he also really has to go all in on his weight cuts. At times, it seems the cut has weighed on him. Defensively, he has holes all over the place, and his best attribute besides his size is his toughness. He does not impress with hand speed or athleticism. He is technically sound, but most fighters are at this level of competition.
CJ Vergara has been up and down in the UFC over the course of seven fights in the organization. He is 3-4 in the organization after losing back-to-back fights versus Asu Almabayev and Ramazan Temirov (two fighters that are much tougher opponents than Edgar Chairez). His other two losses are to Ode Osbourne and Tatsuro Taira. Like Chairez, his wins in the organization are not against overwhelmingly strong competition. This price warrants a play on Vergara simply because he is the superior striker, and neither man mixes it up with takedowns that often. His reach at 68” could be an issue, but Josh Van was able to find Chairez with just a 65” reach. Van is a better striker than Vergara, but that fight was also one-sided after Chairez landed a few strikes early. If Vergara can weather the storm, he can win this fight in the second or third round.
FIGHT WINNER: CJ Vergara
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: CJ Vergara (+230, Caesars) vs Edgar Chairez, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.3 Units
–
Ateba Gautier (-470) vs Jose Medina (+360)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Middleweight
Ateba Gautier is the latest African fighter to get an opportunity in the UFC. In Contender Series, he was a slight underdog and won via second-round KO after stuffing 10/11 takedowns and more than quadrupling his opponents’ significant strike output. He looked the part and left no doubt, but now he needs to perform on a much bigger stage, with odds that come with big expectations. Overall, the 22-year-old is 6-1 as a professional fighter, with his pre-UFC experience about as bad as it gets. He is young, powerful, and seemingly in a good matchup here, but there are still plenty of questions about his overall ability.
Jose Medina is a 33-year-old fighter who lost on Contender Series in 2023. He was still given the opportunity to fight Zach Reese almost a year later on a Fight Night undercard, but he lost that fight via decision as well. He is 11-4 as a pro, and like Gautier, he fought mostly suspect competition before getting a spot on the UFC’s roster. Between his Contender Series fight and his UFC debut, he was taken down 11 times. He also landed just a third of his significant strikes while absorbing over half of everything his opponents threw. This fight looks like it was set up for him to take the fall versus a much higher ceiling fighter, but fight minutes matter, and this veteran could have something up his sleeve. Yet, his profile is not one I can back.
FIGHT WINNER: Ateba Gautier
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: Pass
–
Melquizael Costa (+136) vs Christian Rodriguez (-162)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Featherweight
Melquizael Costa is quickly becoming a very popular featherweight. He gets into exciting fights, and he stays active as this will be his sixth trip to the cage since January 2023. He started out 1-2, but he had to fight some tough fighters right out of the gate. Additionally, both losses came up a weight class at lightweight. In his last two fights, he was able to submit Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and Andre Fili. This will be only his second time entering the cage as an underdog, with the first being a loss to Thiago Moises in his debut. Costa has a good fighter profile in that he is not deficient as a striker, but excels in defense and his ability to mix in takedowns and attempt submissions. But this opponent may make it difficult for him to enact his gameplan.
Christian Rodriguez is a fighter I love to back as an underdog, but I tend to pause when he is a betting favorite. He is 5-2 in the UFC and 3-1 when the odds are against him. He was submitted by Julian Erosa last July, but rebounded to kill the hype train for Austin Bashi. This situation is unique in that Costa does have some momentum and hype around his name, but Rodriguez’s experience is not being overlooked. On the feet, these men are fairly even, but Rodriguez is more accurate with offensive takedowns and more sound in takedown defense. Additionally, his striking has been improving every time he enters the cage. I expect this to be a very close fight and give a slight edge to Costa due to his size and overall aggressiveness.
FIGHT WINNER: Melquizael Costa
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: Melquizael Costa (+145, Bovada) vs Rodriguez, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
–
Julia Polastri (+200) vs Lupita Godinez (-245)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-620) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+400)
Women’s Strawweight
Julia Polastri is 1-1 in the UFC with a loss to Josefine Knutsson and a split decision loss to Cory McKenna. Since I do not have a high opinion of either of those opponents, I am not looking to back Julia Polastri. Both of those opponents are not good stand-up fighters, so her striking metrics are pretty solid. Interestingly, she has an 80% takedown accuracy rate. However, all three takedowns she successfully landed at the UFC level came in her loss to Knutsson. Polastri is also a rare fighter who got two chances in Contender Series. She lost her first bout with Jasmine Jasudavicius, and got a redo two years later, a fight in which she won via submission.
Lupita Godinez is just a grinder. She is 7-5 in the UFC. Win or lose, her opponents get pushed to their limits, and she has gone to a split decision 3 times (2-1 record). She does not have power, but does land a lot of volume. Generally, she can find submissions only if she wears down her opponents through sustained grappling exchanges. That being said, she is coming off back-to-back losses versus Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern, two women who are stronger grapplers than Polastri. I expect Godinez to win this fight through sustained activity and mixing in takedowns when there are opportunities.
FIGHT WINNER: Lupita Godinez
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: PARLAY: Lupita Godinez/Brandon Moreno (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
–
Rafa Garcia (-410) vs Vinc Pichel (+320)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Lightweight
Rafa Garcia is 4-4 in the UFC but 3-1 as a favorite. He is a technically sound striker who implements takedowns when facing opponents susceptible to those types of attacks. He does not have overwhelming power and has just one win via submission in the UFC. Cub Swanson coaches him, and generally, Garcia displays high fight IQ, doing what it takes to give himself a shot. He was finished for the first time in his UFC career last October when Grant Dawson was able to win the grappling exchanges and secure the ground and pound KO victory.
Vinc Pichel is now 42 years old. He is 7-4 in the UFC, but has fought just once since 2022, a decision loss to Ismael Bonfim last May. He made his name on the Ultimate Fighter season 15 back in 2012 and has had a home in the organization ever since, albeit with a few prolonged bouts of inactivity. Overall, he is fairly well-rounded, but his takedown defense rate of 25% is a major red flag in this fight. I expect this fight to go the distance, and I expect Garcia to get his hand raised.
FIGHT WINNER: Rafa Garcia
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: Pass
–
Jamall Emmers (-485) vs Gabriel Miranda (+370)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-210)
Featherweight
This featherweight fight features two wildly inconsistent fighters. Jamall Emmers is 3-4 in the UFC and has traded wins and losses in each subsequent trip to the octagon. In March of 2024, he was knocked out by Nate Landwehr, so with these odds, it looks like he is primed for a win… Or is he? Most likely. He is the superior striker (Miranda is another one of those guys who has a sub-3 SS landed per minute), and he has a 90% takedown defense rate. Miranda is 1-2 in the UFC, albeit the losses came against Benoit Saint Denis and Morgan Charriere. His pre-UFC schedule is laughable, and his one UFC win came against Shane Young (2-5 in the UFC). I expect this to be a wild fight, and I would not be surprised if there was an early finish. Miranda will try some very aggressive tactics, and if Jamall Emmers gets caught taking pictures, he will get caught in a bad spot. Miranda’s head is also quite hittable, so if Emmers wants to get his second KO victory, this could be the opponent that allows it to happen.
FIGHT WINNER: Jamall Emmers
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: Pass
–
Austin Hubbard (+130) vs MarQuel Mederos (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Lightweight
Austin Hubbard’s nickname is “Thud,” which is a bit ironic because his strikes decisively lack it. The 4-6 fighter technically has one KO victory in the organization (his opponent retired after round two). Besides that, he has struggled to really hurt anyone. He is a man on his second stint in the organization after earning another chance on The Ultimate Fighter. Since his return to the roster, he is 1-2 with losses to Kurt Holobaugh and Alex Hernandez, and a win versus Michal Figlak. Statistically, he is not terrible in any one area, but his issue is that he does not excel in any areas either.
MarQuel Mederos is fighting in the UFC for the second time after winning a Contender Series fight in 2023. The 28-year-old is 9-1 as a pro with the one loss coming via split decision early in his regional scene career. Six of his career wins have come via KO, with three coming via decision. He mostly fought in FURY FC before joining the organization, which is a respectable lesser organization. He has proven to be sound defensively when it comes to striking and adept at stopping the takedown, but his offensive metrics jump off the page. His ceiling is much higher than that of Hubbard, but his experience is quite a bit lacking head-to-head. Additionally, more experienced and powerful fighters have been unable to knock out Hubbard. It will be interesting to see how Mederos reacts to an opponent who is ready to brawl all three rounds.
FIGHT WINNER: Austin Hubbard
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BET: Pass
–
UFC MEXICO CITY BEST BEST BETS RECAP
– Manuel Torres (-104, FanDuel) vs Drew Dober, Risk 1.04 Units to Win 1
– Raul Rosas Jr to win via sub vs Vince Morales (+270, BetRivers), Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.7
– CJ Vergara (+230, Caesars) vs Edgar Chairez, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.3 Units
– David Martinez to Win Via KO vs Oliveira (+145, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
– Melquizael Costa (+145, Bovada) vs Rodriguez, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
– Lupita Godinez/Brandon Moreno (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
